The War in the Ukraine

Peas said:

Ukraine war at present reminds me of the 1979 Sino-Viet war.
One month earlier, many people were mocking China had no military action in Taiwan. A retreat not mean the RU whole failure. I will not laught at Russia until the end of the war and observe what will happen next.

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Not really comparable, China's goal back then was just to take uninhabited border territory, inflict battlefield defeats on the Viet army and sack some cities.

And some people mocked China back then because their goals were so modest instead of trying to annex large parts of Vietnam. But because of modest goals, they didn't get bogged down and avoided high losses.

Russians on the other hand have no choice but to get bogged down. They fully intend to steal large parts of Ukraine.

If Russia thought they could do that without mobilizing, their leadership was greatly mistaken. But if they are just softening up Ukraine for a full scale blitz using the whole Russian army later, then they're more or less on schedule. Towns switching sides then is not a huge concern. As long as Russia doesn't lose much men and can make a new, actually stable defensive line at Oskil and keep making Ukraine pay severely for every advance.

Pmichael said:

No one forced Russia to invade Ukraine. And even if they were fully aware that the manpower and logistics can't maintain a war in Ukraine. You either don't start a war or your operational goals are highly limited - which makes the entire endeavor pointless as well.

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Ukraine planned an offesinve against Donbas, and Russia started the attack to keep the advantage of first mover.

In reality, Russia hasn't got too much choice, contrary of popular belief.

They was forced to move, without having time for proper preparation.

Problem is, the same things happened in the past three-five years, the Ukrainans perpared for attack, Russia pulled lot of military units to the border, but finaly nothing happened.

So, in retroperspective they should push more efforts for this years prep, but actually where is the border, how much effort could be spent an a possible , but not certain counteroffensive?

Anlsvrthng said:

Ukraine planned an offesinve against Donbas, and Russia started the attack to keep the advantage of first mover.

In reality, Russia hasn't got too much choice, contrary of popular belief.

They was forced to move, without having time for proper preparation.

Problem is, the same things happened in the past three-five years, the Ukrainans perpared for attack, Russia pulled lot of military units to the border, but finaly nothing happened.

So, in retroperspective they should push more efforts for this years prep, but actually where is the border, how much effort could be spent an a possible , but not certain counteroffensive?

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There were barely any forces in Eastern Ukraine. It's like returning to the bioweapon claim, which if it wasn't some badly attempt of a misinformation campaign would be enough for a full scale mobilization. But that's another area where Russia failed badly in this war, their attempts of misonformation and propaganda were so laughable - never forget how they were accidently taking pictures of the SIMS games instead of sim cards to prove an assassination ploy.

Pmichael said:

There were barely any forces in Eastern Ukraine. It's like returning to the bioweapon claim, which if it wasn't some badly attempt of a misinformation campaign would be enough for a full scale mobilization. But that's another area where Russia failed badly in this war, their attempts of misonformation and propaganda were so laughable - never forget how they were accidently taking pictures of the SIMS games instead of sim cards to prove an assassination ploy.

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Source ?

Prior of 24th of Feb, there was many reports of unit concentrations in Donbas by the Ukrianan side.

Lot of weapon piled up there as well, best part of the ammunition of the Ukrainan army.

Same happened in the past five years.

You made a groundless claim, supported by propaganda (simple lies).

More abandoned tanks and other AFV's captured by Ukrainians. Looks like Russians left in a hurry.

tankphobia said:

Another question I have regarding this fiasco is, why are the militia so poorly equipped? Russia knows full well that the Ukrainian army is basically fully decked out in NATO gear head to toe, with the training to go with the kit to know how to use it effectively.

The least that Russia could do was give them a equivalent playing field in terms of equipment. Instead basically every video we see of the DPR/LNR militia they are running at best cold war era gear/vehicles and those troops are expected to hold against the newest of NATO in infantry equipment.

Russia has had 6 months to rectify this issue and yet it seems like the militia is still getting by with whatever they can scavenge/pull out of a museum rather than modern weapons of war.

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The militia is better equipped than you might think. The first day of the Kharkov counter-offensive in Ukraine defeated two militia reserve regiments, and then we saw that the Ukrainians captured three T72B3s. The fact that the militia reserve regiments got T72B3s shows that the Russians are serious about arming them. At the same time you certainly don't want to over arm them and give them the ability to attack on their own, which would create the embarrassing problem of the tail wagging the dog.

Anlsvrthng said:

Source ?

Prior of 24th of Feb, there was many reports of unit concentrations in Donbas by the Ukrianan side.

Lot of weapon piled up there as well, best part of the ammunition of the Ukrainan army.

Same happened in the past five years.

You made a groundless claim, supported by propaganda (simple lies).

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You mean own Russian reports of not meeting resistance until being deep into Ukraine? But I bet you can provide a bunch of trustworthy sources for your original claim.

Broccoli said:

More abandoned tanks and other AFV's captured by Ukrainians. Looks like Russians left in a hurry.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568887056822042626

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568897246690672641

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568892625519874048

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The contrast to Desert Storm is massive where every single abandoned tank was properly destroyed by the crew, which was kinda a waste because the USA was never in a situation of losing ground.

Pmichael said:

There were barely any forces in Eastern Ukraine. It's like returning to the bioweapon claim, which if it wasn't some badly attempt of a misinformation campaign would be enough for a full scale mobilization. But that's another area where Russia failed badly in this war, their attempts of misonformation and propaganda were so laughable - never forget how they were accidently taking pictures of the SIMS games instead of sim cards to prove an assassination ploy.

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On February 16, the Ukrainian army began shelling the civilian population of Donbas, in clear violation of the Minsk agreements and presenting Putin with a difficult choice. The massive increase in fire against the population of Donbass since that date indicates to the Russians that a major offensive is imminent. In a telephone conversation held between Putin and Macron on February 20, it is confirmed that the Ukrainian army has begun aggressive bombing of the Donbass. Macron even tells Putin that he called Zelensky to "pacify his armed forces". This massive increase in the bombing of Donbas is also established by the daily reports of the OSCE observers.

Pmichael said:

You mean own Russian reports of not meeting resistance until being deep into Ukraine? But I bet you can provide a bunch of trustworthy sources for your original claim.

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Interesting, are you aware of the fact the Donbas-luhansk frontline didn't moved a mm for several month ?

There was advancement, but mainly in unrelated areas .

The Donetsk frontline had best part of the Ukrainan resources, prepared for attack.


Again, unfounded claims, not supported by facts.

You saying that, because Ukraine had areas without any military units Ukraine hasn't prepared to attack the Donbas.

But of course it is more of an indicator of the concentration of forces is the Donbas.

Again, you repeat propaganda ( lies), and doing Gish galop.

Anlsvrthng said:

Interesting, are you aware of the fact the Donbas-luhansk frontline didn't moved a mm for several month ?

There was advancement, but mainly in unrelated areas .

The Donetsk frontline had best part of the Ukrainan resources, prepared for attack.


Again, unfounded claims, not supported by facts.

You saying that, because Ukraine had areas without any military units Ukraine hasn't prepared to attack the Donbas.

But of course it is more of an indicator of the concentration of forces is the Donbas.

Again, you repeat propaganda ( lies), and doing Gish galop.

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We know that Ukraine most mechanized units were put on hold in Western Ukraine to not degrade them in the first wave of attacks. I don't know what you are about right now.