The War in the Ukraine

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Turned into line infantry. It is holding the frontline as a thin layer of force. Just another consequence of trying to invade a 600.000 km^2 country with less than 200,000 men.

Doesn’t seem like that is true. Even some of the neocon western think tanks have been saying that the Milita is doing the vast majority of the heavy fighting alongside Russian SF a few weeks ago. Regular Army is still no where to be seen.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
So, my question now is, where did Ukraine pull this force from? They couldn't have achieved this deep thrust in two directions without committing at least 20k+ men into the offensive, we've all heard previously how hard the Russian artillery was hitting the Ukrainian positions and that their best troops are being turned into meat paste through long range suppression. To operate at this speed and ferocity does not seem like the conduct of a poorly trained TDF, but rather well drilled mechanized troops. It's actually interesting that Ukraine was able to pull such a force out of a magic hat even as their entire front is getting pounded by artillery daily for the last few months.
I would be surprised if the forces were more than 20,000. Ukraine withdrew from these territories up voluntarily a few months ago, it makes no sense to try and retake them now (why leave in the first place). The Russians didn't expect Ukrainians to try and take back pro-Russian territories so had less forces there, particularly with redeployments in anticipation for the Kherson counter offensive.

All this does is to put Ukraine back in the same position a back in June when they held these territories, except the pocket is much deeper and easier to cut off. They still are out gunned and under equipped in hostile territory. They have the excuse to kill locals I guess.
 

Pmichael

Junior Member
Well we do kinda know Russia is inflicting heavy damage from artillery. Because Western Medias interviewing Ukrainian soldiers basically say they getting pounded 24/7 from it and are taking heavy losses. Just like that on the Kherson, where one Ukrainian platoon commander said he took 5 casualties for every 1 on the other side.
Having locally limited success doesn’t mean you are successful in a larger scale. Stuff like entire brigades being dead (not defeated or something but straight up completely killed) or Ukraines using human wave attacks were obviously unhinged nonsense. And people should really stop believing those things without any proofs.

ukraines are taking and posting pictures and videos non stop while Russia is straight up incapable of doing anything of that scale.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Turned into line infantry. It is holding the frontline as a thin layer of force. Just another consequence of trying to invade a 600.000 km^2 country with less than 200,000 men.
No. Spreading forces in a line would be the most pointless thing to do.

Russian forces are on the frontlines. The only reason you see more videos of DLPR and groups like Chechens is because they use their phones. It gives a disproportionate impression of who's actually there.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Turned into line infantry. It is holding the frontline as a thin layer of force. Just another consequence of trying to invade a 600.000 km^2 country with less than 200,000 men.
I think people don't appreciate how long the frontlines are and how many troops are required for a proper ground invasion in such a big area. Vast numbers of warm bodies are needed to just maintain the front line, nevermind defending it, or attacking from it.

Russian troops at the ground need to be at least 2x or 2.5x of the troops they currently have if they want to be able to conduct proper operations without getting handicapped from low manpower.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, to be honest, most Western defence officials also have zero military experience. That's the whole point of "the pen controllingn the gun" analogy in Western political system and Song dynasty.
The guy proudly wears a dozen plus decorations on his ceremonial uniform as a grand war hero. How exactly did he ear those? He just strikes me as thoroughly fake figure pretending to know what he's doing, but lacking any substance.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
So, my question now is, where did Ukraine pull this force from? They couldn't have achieved this deep thrust in two directions without committing at least 20k+ men into the offensive, we've all heard previously how hard the Russian artillery was hitting the Ukrainian positions and that their best troops are being turned into meat paste through long range suppression. To operate at this speed and ferocity does not seem like the conduct of a poorly trained TDF, but rather well drilled mechanized troops. It's actually interesting that Ukraine was able to pull such a force out of a magic hat even as their entire front is getting pounded by artillery daily for the last few months.
Why should this be so surprising? Ukraine by now may be fielding an army 600,000 strong. Yeah, most of it is still green and lacks experience but they are working on that. They don't really need a functioning economy at this point, because Europe and the US have their back. That allows them to channel as many men into arms as they can muster. Unless Russia DOWs them, the momentum is on Ukraine's side.
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
tbh they were fully focused on China even before, Russia just took the target off China for awhile.

If Russia gets pushed back, China can do the same trick as US is doing to EU. Use the crisis to tie the Russians closer and keep them on short leash. Lines are being drawn up in the new cold war, and it is obviously in China's interest for Russia to draw the line as unfavorably for Europe as possible in Ukraine. But just as US found silver lining in "harvesting" EU after EU fucked their own economies, China could find something to take advantage of if Russia is driven back to status quo ante bellum, assuming China would accept such an outcome.

The second tweet is a massive exaggeration. India still exists as a solid entity even after 1962 (the equivalent would be AFU penetrating into Russia and shelling the outskirts of Moscow with Russian losses being 5 to 1 vs Ukraine). And Russia is even nuclear armed so it has much less to fear than India.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
More people talking about how Russia needs more soldiers...even if Russia had 600,000 soldiers dedicated to the invasion they would end up in the same situation as now.

The problem is their ROE. They have all of the disadvantages of fighting on home territory (protecting civilians) with none of the advantages. Having more soldiers would allow them to push a little further but their offensive would ultimately grind to a snails pace once more towns and cities needed garrisons and support.

My suggestion to the Russian command. Reopen up a front in western Ukraine. It was the original plan until someone (Putin) likely decided to interfere. It'll cost lives and will be more expensive to get to Kiev compared to the first time, but is the only logical answer to the current situation.

Once you get to Kiev, offer the Ukrainian army garrisoned there the option to fight outside the city like the US 5th army offered to the Nazis before the battle of Rome. If they refuse, and being Ukrainians I expect them to, start mass bombardment of army positions in the city. Treat Kiev the same way Ukrainians have been treating Donetsk for 8 years. Artillery, in particular thermobarics are much more effective in cities than empty fields.

Once everyone is dead or has fled Kiev, move to the next west Ukrainian city and repeat. Keep doing this and you'll find the Ukrainian army will leave ethnic Russian areas in the east of their own volition very quickly.

If Putin wants a geopolitical battle he can carry it on with Ukraine gone, he can pick the Baltics states or Poland. Anglos will whine muh war crimes, but seeing as they're already doing it already I don't see the difference. To that you can refer them American actions in Syria or Iraq. Better yet I would appoint a Jewish or black guy as commander and accuse the Americans of being racist or anti-semitic.
 
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