The War in the Ukraine

Overbom said:

The enemy invaded and you embraced him, now that we got you back from him you want mercy?

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That was a situation of Kiev's own doing though, trying to ethnically cleanse eastern ukranians and anyone who spoke russian since 2014.

It would be like expecting the chechens to not embrace an invading army in the 1990's, should that have happened.
We shouldn't forget this war is just an extension of the 2014 nazi coup.

Overbom said:

It will send a warning to the whole country. Think very carefully before becoming a traitor otherwise when we get the city back you will suffer, your property seized, thrown into prison/hard labour/fired from job and then ostracized.

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Ukranians were already doing that before the war. What does change is that they can probably do mass executions and the west will cover it all up.

Downside for Ukranians?. They'll face the same type of insurgency in the East Russia would face if they would have tried to occupy the West.

sheogorath said:

Rybar mentions that families of Izyum had sent their kids to summer camps in Russia weeks before the offensive and they are worried the Ukranians will punish the remaining population of the city for this.

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The consequence of Russia's failure to protect the civilian collaborators is all subsequent "liberation" is going to be met with more uncooperating attitude or even resistance from the domestic population, complicating their efforts to hold territories in the future. Very disappointing.

sheogorath said:

That was a situation of Kiev's own doing though, trying to ethnically cleanse eastern ukranians and anyone who speaked russian since 2014.

It would be like expecting the chechens to not embrace an invading army in the 1990's , should that have happened.



Ukranians were already doing that before the war. What does change is that they can probably do mass executions and the west will cover it all up.

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Its in Ukraine's national interest to kick out its russophile population. Otherwise it will never be able to trully (politically) unite and forge its own national identity.
This war is a perfect excuse for it to achieve this.

You can already see something similar happening in Kazakhstan and in the Baltics

Overbom said:

Its in Ukraine's national interest to kick out its russophile population. Otherwise it will never be able to trully unite.
This war is a perfect excuse for it to achieve this.

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Possibly, but if they become too overt at it that it becomes difficult for the west to cover it up, it will affect the west's support for Ukraines war effort.

Western politics do run a lot on optics, particularly if there are any elections coming up, and it doesn't look good at all for the German or French population if they start starving or dying of cold to support a group of people that turned out to be ethnically cleansing their own population, no matter what the hysteric lunatic of a German minister thinks

Overbom said:

Meh. We talk about the same propaganda machine that has convinced the world that America is the empire of peace, China is warlike, that Ukrainian Nazis were Russian fake news, China is massacring the Uyghurs etc.

You shouldn't pin your hopes in Western media

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Oh, I'm not talking about american media and population at large. They don't really care about genocides unless it is an american unit getting "genocided" somewhere in a war.

Heck, they don't even care their kids get shot up in a school while cops are right outside jerking each other off.

I'm talking mostly about the Euro side of the equation. European government coalitions are extremely fragile things that can't stand the slightest scandal before having to call it quits in a matter or another, and a lot of Ukraines war effort relies on Europe, through money, transit and equipment to a lesser extent.

Broccoli said:

Most sources put number between 5000-15.000 Russian soldiers and militiamen.

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I'm pretty sure that if there were that many troops, there would be no possible way that Ukrainians would be able to make any gains.

GodRektsNoobs said:

I'm pretty sure that if there were that many troops, there would be no possible way that Ukrainians would be able to make any gains.

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I think these troops were inside the city. They had to retreat because their supply/communications lines were cut off and they risked encirclement.

Its not only about how many troops you have, but also where

Another crazy moment from this war.

According to RWA the dialogue is: Ukrainian soldier asks the approaching Russians where their yellow armbands are, can't make out their reply, then he asks them who they are, they say "we've come for you", he asks what they want, Russians say "we're here to relieve you" & shoot him

Latest map from Rybar
They really withdrew A LOT

RottenPanzer said:

Latest map from Rybar
They really withdrew A LOTView attachment 97313

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Looks to me that the AFU have thrown in everything they’ve got left. I had been under the impression this was a limited force in the second half of their counteroffensive but seems not. I was wrong earlier then. The rumours of them emptying even trenches in Odessa might be true then. So this is the long awaited big counteroffensive. Presumably they threw away 10k+ dead in Kherson to lure the Russian reserves away from their real targets. Thoroughly despicable tactics and if done by the Russians, we’d be hearing nonstop about how little they care about the lives of their men.

If this is the biggest push the AFU have done in the war, then (wisely) stepping away from what is effectively a raging & crippled bull, explains these retreat movements. I don’t believe for a second that the Russian command didn’t see this coming.

The real question then imho, is at what point do they decide to push back? Where do they deem the point of greatest overstretch and vulnerability in the now thoroughly committed AFU? I’m getting shades of Operation Michael (WWI) here. The Germans then used a lot of new tactics and experienced men (stormtroopers) in their major offensive. Caught the Entente by surprise, shattered trench lines with massive artillery bombardments but ultimately ran out of steam. They suffered many casualties and were unable to maintain supplies. Afterwards, they were effectively unable to resist Eastward pushes.