First off an apology, I have been away for a week and have not had a chance to properly read the thread over the last few days, so sorry If I am repeating points already made.
Impossible to tell at present as to much we are hearing about Kharkov is true and how much is disinformation and misdirection. Despite the constant flow about this and that happening, nothing is start being clear for a day or two.
There are only two things that I know to be true.
1) Osint channels have been reporting about a huge build up of Ukrainian forces around Kharkov for some weeks, with reports of large amounts of armour being kept in the nuke proof Underground railway tunnels of Kharkov city itself
2) It has always been an imperative for the Russians to get the Ukrainians out of their trenches and out from behind their human shields in pro Russian areas..
This means that this offensive cannot have come as a surprise to Russian planners and the need to get as much of this Ukrainian force exposed in the open as possible will have been paramount. IF the Russians are falling back, its because they are trying to get as much of this force committed in the open as possible.
We all know what comes next and we saw what happened in Kherson.
The big question for me is where is the Russian 3rd army Corps? If they are not currently or about to be, committed to countering either of these two current Ukrainian counter offensives, then it means they are free to start their own Offensive in another part of the Front.
The fundamentals against the Ukraine have not changed; not enough armour, not enough artillery and not enough air cover or air defense. Nor is the War in a Stalemate as their is no genuine balance of forces which neither side can break. If the Ukrainians remained on the defensive, they will eventually be worn down and defeated by a fully intact Russian force. Going on the offensive offers only a remote chance of victory, but which may count as better odds than a slow certain defeat.
Plus of course they need something that can be filtered by Western Governments to their populations to convince them its achieving something to keep throwing away their cash, military capability and general well being for the Ukrainian war.
While I always have to be mindful that sometimes things are exactly the way they look. I also remain fully aware that for Russia to bait a trap in Kharkov, it needs to look real in order to entice the AFU inside.
Well we will see soon enough.
Finally of course, if Russia was really that worried, all they need to do is declare a proper war and let loose its full potential.....