This is is why I made "my leap of faith" regarding your comments, not a bad faith argument against you, so apologies if it came out like that.
What do you think would be the logical end result of Russia lossing this war?.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
This is is why I made "my leap of faith" regarding your comments, not a bad faith argument against you, so apologies if it came out like that.
What do you think would be the logical end result of Russia lossing this war?.
Putin is hoping to preserve minimal goodwill among Ukraine populace to secure a semi-permanent negotiated settlement, so that is why he isn't razing the infrastructure to ground with full force of RuAf and missile force. Maybe that was a valid strategy at beginning when there was a solid chance of Ukraine quickly sueing for peace upon Kiev rapid encirclement, shock and awe 5-axis multi-prong invasion ...
But it's no longer a valid strategy now that NATO has gone "all-in" on financial aid, weapons, oil/gas embargo, sanctions, advisors. It is now a Russia vs. NATO-proxy war, and Russia should go for regime change. No more kids gloves, brotherly love, hope for negotiated settlement. Anything that keeps a NATO proxy on your doorsteps is a strategic failure.
But it's no longer a valid strategy now that NATO has gone "all-in" on financial aid, weapons, oil/gas embargo, sanctions, advisors. It is now a Russia vs. NATO-proxy war, and Russia should go for regime change. No more kids gloves, brotherly love, hope for negotiated settlement. Anything that keeps a NATO proxy on your doorsteps is a strategic failure.
No prob. What I want and what I assess that is happening are often quite different. So when I write "Russia has a big problem" that's my assesment
First I don't think Russia will lose. Russia deserves to lose the way they wage this war, but the world isnt fair, so deserves or not, it doesn't matter.
However what I assess is that Russia as a military superpower is over, Russia as a Great Power+ is over, Russia as a Great Power in 10 years is also over. Russia as a counterweight to Europe is also over.
No, it won't be occupied by NATO, no it won't lose the war. However, in comprehensive national power terms, this is a disaster for Russia.
A country isn't only based on its military but also in its politics, economy, tech, industry, R&D, competency of its political leaders and its bureacracy, diplomacy, economic structure etc.
Last edited:
American propaganda... It is as reasonable as North Koreans without Kim Jong Un style haircut getting executed. I am copying my Quora answer.
"
I am not sure regarding news about Iran since they do have a lot of different kinds of drones. But the recent articles about North Korea don’t make sense.
What’s the argument? Russia can not produce enough artillery shells because of sanctions. But isn’t North Korea a country with a much smaller defense industry and has been under stricter sanctions for 73 years? Wasn’t your usual American and British media outlets publishing articles about North Korea’s lack of equipment just a year ago? Where did they find millions of rockets and shells suddenly? Mind you, most NATO members don’t have 100,000 artillery shells.
We don’t have any evidence presented either. The only thing we have is an anonymous official supposedly telling things. So no, Russia is very likely not getting anything from North Korea. The question is not answerable because the premise is wrong.
"
I agree. Despite multiple instances of obvious NATO involvement and despite the failure of the Kiev push to make the Ukranian leadership collapse, they insist on treating this like this is Chechnya and an internal matter, which it isn't and hasn't been for a while now.
I kind of disagree. Not a superpower, yes, that was over the moment the USSR collapsed and even before when Gorby took over, but still is a great power.
Take a look the effect they are having on the European economy where the sanctions are fucking them more than they are fucking Russian itself. That Europe keeps pushing is more a matter of European chihuahua-like suicidal tendencies to please the US betting things work out for them before it gets worse.
Again, it is a suicidal bet with no guarantees it will work, but people who join Green Parties or people like Boris aren't the sharpest tool in the shed, either.
Another case in point, should Russia decide to set a bomber base again in the Caribbean, watch the US lose its shit and do a "special military operation" of its own in the name of "democracy and human rights" in the "affected" country.
That to me are signs of Russia of still being a great power. Now, if Russia losses, then I'll agree with you because the geopolitical scenario changes completely.
escobar
Brigadier
RU desire to be seen as equal to US is rather pathetic and have tragic consequence
Its natural. The enemy invaded and you embraced him, now that we got you back from him you want mercy?
It will send a warning to the whole country. Think very carefully before becoming a traitor otherwise when we get the city back you will suffer, your property seized, thrown into prison/hard labour/fired from job and then ostracized.