The War in the Ukraine

tankphobia said:

What we're seeing is the failure of multiple levels on the Russian government. The intelligence apparatus for eating their own propaganda about Ukranian weakness, the Russian military for expecting the Ukranian military to not have changed since 2014 and finally the executive level for believing fully the drivel both sides feed them to expect a lighting victory with 150k troops against a million.

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They seem to do the exact same mistake again. EuroMaiden happened but they got distracted with the 2014 Winter Olympic. Kharkiv happened but once again got distracted with Vostok exercise. The military chief of staff was at Vostok with Putin. Also from my understanding, the only ones defending Kharkov region was the LPR militia. So really where the hell are the Russians anyway.

FriedButter said:

They seem to do the exact same mistake again. EuroMaiden happened but they got distracted with the 2014 Winter Olympic. Kharkiv happened but once again got distracted with Vostok exercise. The military chief of staff was at Vostok with Putin. Also from my understanding, the only ones defending Kharkov region was the LPR militia. So really where the hell are the Russians anyway.

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They shouldn’t be wasting resources on parades, exercises, and tank tournaments when there is an actual war going on.

siegecrossbow said:

They shouldn’t be wasting resources on parades, exercises, and tank tournaments when there is an actual war going on.

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Wasn’t there some Chinese officials there. If it remember, they weren’t high levels or low level officials. They probably went there to discuss things with China. Tho idk why the military chief of staff had to supervise the Vostok exercise.

One of the things this war has me questioning is the extent of the gap that exists between what Russia's military has on paper, versus what it is actually capable of putting into the field and using?

For example, why has the Russia Air Force failed to achieve air superiority over Ukraine? Numbers alone should have guaranteed this! Yet they seem to be totally incapable of conducting sustained air operations and seemingly have no concept of SEAD/DEAD. Without the ability to even attempt, or even be willing to attempt, to destroy Ukraine's air defence network the RuAF is relegated to flying low-level operations.

Just seems like there is a massive gap in what the Russian military has on paper versus what is is actually capable of using.

One can only imagine how badly Russia would have beaten if the West didn’t refuse to send Abrams, and Leopard 2 tanks and Bradleys and Marders IFVs. Ukraine has deployed NATO style well prepared focal point attack axis despite operating subpar material.
Which shows that the West and Ukraine still have the upperhand in the conventional escalation spiral.

Situation for Russian forces in Kharkov region must be terrible when TASS is openly reporting the evacuation of pro Russian civilians.

According to Sokolov, Izyum "is in a very poor condition, as there is too much destruction. The situation is grave

MOSCOW, September 10. /TASS/. Evacuation of residents from Izyum, Kharkov Region, to Russia is underway, Vladislav Sokolov, head of the civil-military administration of the Izyum district, said in the video provided to TASS by the Kharkov Region’s civil-military administration.
"We have started evacuation, however at a slow pace, but we are evacuating them here, into Russian territory, to the extent possible. Here they are being welcomed at a migration center and given psychological and humanitarian assistance. I think we will keep rescuing people and taking them here," Sokolov said.
According to Sokolov, Izyum "is in a very poor condition, as there is too much destruction. The situation is grave."
On Friday, Vitaly Ganchev, head of the civil-military administration of the Kharkov region, said that people were being evacuated from Izyum, Shevchenkovo, Balakleya and Kupyansk.

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SampanViking said:

The big question for me is where is the Russian 3rd army Corps? If they are not currently or about to be, committed to countering either of these two current Ukrainian counter offensives, then it means they are free to start their own Offensive in another part of the Front.

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We've seen some vehicles from this formation destroyed by Ukrainians on the way to Kup'yans'k yesterday. But they're mainly sitting on the left bank of the Dnieper securing the forces fighting on the other bank of the river near Kherson.

SampanViking said:

This means that this offensive cannot have come as a surprise to Russian planners and the need to get as much of this Ukrainian force exposed in the open as possible will have been paramount. IF the Russians are falling back, its because they are trying to get as much of this force committed in the open as possible.

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I think that's how they might portray the collapse to the tzar in Moscow. They should take notes because even Russian MoD could learn a few things from you on how to make official statements.

And we've already seen in the past few months that Russians aren't gods of war and they have a lot of problems with maneuvering the forces and advancing.

SampanViking said:

I also remain fully aware that for Russia to bait a trap in Kharkov, it needs to look real in order to entice the AFU inside.

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New heights. What's the bait here?

SampanViking said:

Osint channels have been reporting about a huge build up of Ukrainian forces around Kharkov for some weeks, with reports of large amounts of armour being kept in the nuke proof Underground railway tunnels of Kharkov city itself

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lol. Many of you don't know about that but there wasn't too much committed by the AFU in the area. In reality the offensive is being conducted by the troops that were fighting in the area since February. No, they aren't using reserves there. The effort is minimal there. It was around Kherson where they indeed got some more reinforcements but those weren't really that big in reality. That's why no one took it seriously (especially Russians it seems).

SampanViking said:

Finally of course, if Russia was really that worried, all they need to do is declare a proper war and let loose its full potential.....

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What potential? Because the only potential left seems like nukes if anything.

SlothmanAllen said:

One of the things this war has me questioning is the extent of the gap that exists between what Russia's military has on paper, versus what it is actually capable of putting into the field and using?

For example, why has the Russia Air Force failed to achieve air superiority over Ukraine? Numbers alone should have guaranteed this! Yet they seem to be totally incapable of conducting sustained air operations and seemingly have no concept of SEAD/DEAD. Without the ability to even attempt, or even be willing to attempt, to destroy Ukraine's air defence network the RuAF is relegated to flying low-level operations.

Just seems like there is a massive gap in what the Russian military has on paper versus what is is actually capable of using.

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Russia has air superiority. Their sortie rates are much higher than Ukraine. But they can not benefit from it. The reasons are unclear but the biggest contributor is likely the almost complete lack of SEAD capability. Being confined to low altitudes cripples ISR capability and time on station. The fragmented nature of the Russian airforce and low training hours dedicated to air-to-ground tasks are probably hurting as well.

Remember when the Russian authorities in Kharkov said "Russia is here forever!!"?...

Kharkov had been founded by the tsars and would never be abandoned by Russia, xd!


These unfulfilled promises due to the incapacity of the invading leadership, will hit hard on Russia's credibility in all the occupied areas in Ukraine, but also undermines Russian credibility in the world (much more) and even in Russia itself....

According to Russian channels, public opinion in Russia has not responded with deference to the withdrawal from Kharkov, which is seen as a clear defeat, and there is much discontent against the center of political and military decision-making... The last thing that What Russia needs right now is for Russian public opinion to come down on it

Pmichael said:

One can only imagine how badly Russia would have beaten if the West didn’t refuse to send Abrams, and Leopard 2 tanks and Bradleys and Marders IFVs. Ukraine has deployed NATO style well prepared focal point attack axis despite operating subpar material.
Which shows that the West and Ukraine still have the upperhand in the conventional escalation spiral.

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They don't provide Leopard or Abrams because they're poorly suited to the terrain. A lot of Ukrainian bridges aren't rated for that level of weight. Executing an offensive with light motorized infantry would be impossible with that type of aid.

With Marder-2 there's a severe stockpile issue. Plus such IFVs would inevitably get chewed up no better than M113s in the face of direct confrontation with armored and air supported RU army anyways.

NATO already sent its "best" equipment suited to the situation such as its most modern pzh-2000 and atacms, the only things really missing are NASAMs and SM-3/patriot to replace lost S300 systems. But since RUAF doesn't do much, it's not even that relevant.

The strength of the AFU push is that 400 000 soldiers can just slip through where 150 000 soldiers aren't watching. Sending the most limited stockpile NATO equipments while Russia still has air superiority is just inviting them to get depleted.