The War in the Ukraine

I agree. But I do not think it exactly started like that. I think Putin wanted a kind of settlement of sorts. It could have just been autonomy and neutrality. But now it is just too far gone. The question is how to convince the other side. And the more this spirals the worst it will get.

Some, I would say kind of sadistic, people prefer the current situation where Russia is fighting a pseudo conventional army they can plaster to one where Russia would be fighting a more counter insurgency. But I think that is short sighted. The more people die, the further away we get from a deal, and considering the way the US structured this, I doubt anything other than total victory with invasion of whole Ukraine will do. But I think I kind of understand the Putin PoV. I mean the current situation is basically favoring Russia. So why change things? The Russian government is just fiddling the knobs a bit and adjusting to the new conditions. Wars are won economically, and Russia needs to adjust to the new economic conditions, going for a huge war footing, like some want, would divert resources from the ongoing restructuring of the Russian economy.

By the way, what Zelensky is doing now is a lot like what Chiang Kai-shek did in the last 2 years of the China civil war, which Chinese people nowadays call it China's War of Liberation. Begging his Western masters for more weapons and other support, In return launching stupid suicide military operations(trying to prove that he is useful to the west), trying to assassinate the other side's officials and kill civilians who lean toward the other side just for survival.

It is hard to find any good thing to compare the Ukraine regime to. I mean the bravery of the Ukrainian soldier is commendable. But little else.

gelgoog said:

I agree. But I do not think it exactly started like that. I think Putin wanted a kind of settlement of sorts. It could have just been autonomy and neutrality. But now it is just too far gone. The question is how to convince the other side. And the more this spirals the worst it will get.

Some, I would say kind of sadistic, people prefer the current situation where Russia is fighting a pseudo conventional army they can plaster to one where Russia would be fighting a more counter insurgency. But I think that is short sighted. The more people die, the further away we get from a deal, and considering the way the US structured this, I doubt anything other than total victory will do. But I think I kind of understand the Putin PoV. I mean the current situation is basically favoring Russia. So why change? The Russian government is just fiddling the knobs a bit and adjusting to the new conditions. Wars are won economically, and Russia needs to adjust to the new economic conditions, going for a huge war footing, like some want, would divert resources from the ongoing restructuring of the Russian economy.

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It is clear that after the initial attack straight toward Kyiv, the purpose of the operation changed from making an agreement to what Russia claimed at the beginning: de-fascist, de-militarize. After that, you don't see a quick rush anymore, but a slow but steady push forward.

gelgoog said:

It is hard to find any good thing to compare the Ukraine regime to. I mean the bravery of the Ukrainian soldier is commendable. But little else.

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As if they have a choice? No civilian likes war. The only ones who might like war are criminals.

What with Pakistan supplying Ukraine with artillery shells and now this, seems China's allies are taking different sides.

It might make sense. North Korea has enough artillery shells for WW3 in their stockpile probably.
And they do not care about whatever the US thinks about them.
North Korea used to sell weapons to Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war for example. They sell to whoever wants to buy.

The North Koreans are also one of the last remaining users of the 203 mm artillery round. I could see Russia making a deal where they upgrade North Korean artillery pieces in exchange for ammo. The whole US talk about China exporting rounds was always dubious in the extreme. I mean they do not even use the same caliber artillery systems as Russia.

But rocket ammo I kind of doubt it. While mass is important, this is turning into a long distance fires situation, and Russia seems to be using the Tornado-S and similar modern systems more against longer range systems like HIMARS. So any rocket stockpiles the North Koreans have. Might have limited utility.

Maikeru said:

What with Pakistan supplying Ukraine with artillery shells and now this, seems China's allies are taking different sides.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566976953290203137

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North Korea is actually quite the specialist on MLRS, as there are lots of counterbattery radar and guns on the south side of the 38th parallel they consider tube artillery to be inadequate in the event of a renewed Korean War, hence they've invested big time into large caliber rocket launchers - the are the only country in the world with weapon on the scale of 600mm "超大型放射炮" KN-25.

gelgoog said:

It might make sense. North Korea has enough artillery shells for WW3 in their stockpile probably.
And they do not care about whatever the US thinks about them.
North Korea used to sell weapons to Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war for example. They sell to whoever wants to buy.

The North Koreans are also one of the last remaining users of the 203 mm artillery round. I could see Russia making a deal where they upgrade North Korean artillery pieces in exchange for ammo. The whole US talk about China exporting rounds was always dubious in the extreme. I mean they do not even use the same caliber artillery systems as Russia.

But rocket ammo I kind of doubt it. While mass is important, this is turning into a long distance fires situation, and Russia seems to be using the Tornado-S and similar modern systems more against longer range systems like HIMARS. So any rocket stockpiles the North Koreans have. Might have limited utility.

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well, China uses mixture of 122 mm (Russian caliber) and 155 mm (western caliber; western light guns are 105 mm like M101/102 or Japanese Type 74). Apparently Russians are running short of 122 mm too.

US moved to all big gun (155 mm) but I think China sees use for 122 mm due to the requirement for brigade level SPG support.

FairAndUnbiased said:

well, China uses mixture of 122 mm (Russian caliber) and 155 mm (western caliber; western light guns are 105 mm like M101/102 or Japanese Type 74). Apparently Russians are running short of 122 mm too.

US moved to all big gun (155 mm) but I think China sees use for 122 mm due to the requirement for brigade level SPG support.

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What is the shelf life of artillery shells? Surely China must have vast stocks of 152mm from the days when this was PLA's main tube artillery? Or do they get scrapped/recycled?