The War in the Ukraine

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
I've seen enough people here just outright call any source that doesn't favor China/Russia as propaganda.

The fact is: this war is at an attritional stage where neither side can honestly say they're winning or losing. To say Russia is winning is like saying Germany was winning WW1 because they held onto a chunk of French territory for much of the war.

The thing about attritional war is that the moment they can no longer supply a consistent stream of men and materiel on the frontlines, then collapse will come seemingly out of nowhere.

And the strategic balance on the ground is that the US and its allies have an economy that vastly dwarfs Russia's, and a good chunk of Eastern European NATO members (e.g. Poland) is using this war as an opportunity to offload their Warsaw Pact inventory. In a way, Russia is fighting the army that it had built over the decades, and the US is more than happy to keep supplying everything Ukraine needs to tie Russia down.

And i dont. and i wonder why such people dissuades you from posting the source ?

and i believe most if not all people here will appreciate sourced arguments instead of hearsay. the rest of your arguments are strange it's as if you tried to divert the attention from the question of where your numbers came from.
 

Tootensky

Junior Member
Registered Member
At this point I don't see why Russians should be making a determined push anywhere. The Ukrainians have already proven that they will throw more and more meat into the Russian artillery meat grinder. Why should Russians take losses fighting for a strategically unimportant town in the middle of nowhere, only to have to bombard another town a kilometer down the road and have to rebuild it after the war, when they can very well just sit still, bring more ammunition and kill as many Ukrainians as Zelensky sends in.

Sooner or later the Ukrainians will either run out of manpower or, much more likely, they will get fed up with it all and force a regime change. And in the meantime European economies get to feel the noose tightening around their necks, and eventually they'll be praying that Putin win the war faster, just so the resource supermarket can be opened again.

An excellent application of "Use our strengths against their weakness" by the Russians.
 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
The crew commander of the Russian 152-mm howitzer "Msta-B", spoke about combat work in Ukraine. Russian gunners have been participating in battles in Ukraine for 6 months.


Footage of the repair of Russian military equipment damaged in the battles in Ukraine. In order to maintain the high combat capability of the units, first of all, the weapons that are necessary to carry out the combat mission, as well as the weapons that can be repaired in the shortest possible time, are repaired. Works on the repair of military equipment are going on around the clock.


The pilot of the Russian Ka-52 helicopter spoke about the method of attack from carbriation. The pitch-up mode allows you to attack with unguided missiles without entering the air defense coverage area. Before the start of the attack, the pilot increases the angle of elevation of the nose of the aircraft, simultaneously releasing unguided rockets.

 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukrainian information channels published footage of the assault on the island of Serpents by Ukrainian special forces on May 7. The battle somehow looks strange, on the background of the day a person calmly walks. In reality, during that battle, the special forces retreated and could not even take the dead.

 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
Ukrainian information channels published footage of the assault on the island of Serpents by Ukrainian special forces on May 7. The battle somehow looks strange, on the background of the day a person calmly walks. In reality, during that battle, the special forces retreated and could not even take the dead.


Russia took snake Island in late Feb. The Ukrainians on that Island had already surrendered long before. So where did these Ukrainian special forces come from? And why is it so calm? Straight up propaganda. Somehow the Ukrainian army landed troops and marched up the island unopposed by the Russians already stationed on the island by that point.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I've seen enough people here just outright call any source that doesn't favor China/Russia as propaganda.

The fact is: this war is at an attritional stage where neither side can honestly say they're winning or losing. To say Russia is winning is like saying Germany was winning WW1 because they held onto a chunk of French territory for much of the war.

The thing about attritional war is that the moment they can no longer supply a consistent stream of men and materiel on the frontlines, then collapse will come seemingly out of nowhere.

And the strategic balance on the ground is that the US and its allies have an economy that vastly dwarfs Russia's, and a good chunk of Eastern European NATO members (e.g. Poland) is using this war as an opportunity to offload their Warsaw Pact inventory. In a way, Russia is fighting the army that it had built over the decades, and the US is more than happy to keep supplying everything Ukraine needs to tie Russia down.
You are not wrong about the risks of long term attritional war, although gdp is not a fully accurate measure of economic power. For now, Russia has proved adept at dragging EU down together with them into recession.

But quoting Oryx who are proved to count the same vehicle wreckage a ton of times? Lol. Please don't do that, they're the same kind of clowns that brought us the ghost of Kiev.

According to Russia itself, their losses are 5000 and according to USA, 16 000. Somewhere between that number seems believable as US has a vested interest in overreporting while Russia will do the opposite.

Unlike the American mouthpieces that don't need to be accountable to facts, the regime itself can't invent outrageous numbers because they mostly deal with intelligent politicians in other states who can see through idiot statements like 5000 vehicles destroyed and 100k lost for Russians. So in that regard, US numbers while not trustworthy can be trusted to be closer to reality at least.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
At this point I don't see why Russians should be making a determined push anywhere.
Donestk People's Republic (DPR) has not been liberated yet. It's one of the original objectives of the S.M.O.to liberate DPR, so why not make a determined push here?
 
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baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Senator Richard H. Black: "We don’t care how many Ukrainians die"

A video of an American former Republican senator has now gone viral on the Web Richard Black, who spoke very frankly about how the events in Ukraine developed, and who is behind them. It is noteworthy that this video was recorded at the end of April, but for some reason it was given due attention only now.

– We don’t care how many Ukrainians die. How many women, children, civilians, military will die. It’s like an important football match, and we want to win, – the former senator explained the situation with the utmost frankness and did not blame Moscow for the conflict. – Military tactical science assumes a 3:1 ratio between the attacking troops and the defenders – only in this case the attack has the opportunity to win on the battlefield. However, by the beginning of the special operation, the RF Armed Forces had only 160,000 personnel in this area, while Ukraine concentrated 250,000 people to attack the Donbass. Russia did not plan the invasion in advance. Putin was forced to attack in order to prevent Ukraine from attacking the Donbass.

Another nuance he drew attention to was the difference between the behavior of Russia in Ukraine and American troops in Vietnam.

– Russia completely dominates the air. But pay attention to the fact that Russian planes do not bomb the center of Kyiv, government buildings and quarters, the critical infrastructure for Ukraine’s energy supply and water supply. This is because in Russia they still pin their hopes on a peaceful outcome of the conflict – we recall that this was said at the end of April, when some myths were still strong in our country, and many drew borders separating the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Nazi volunteer battalions of the type banned in Russia. “Azov”. – Russia is trying not to harm civilian Ukrainians, as it considers them to be Slavic brothers. Unlike American tanks in Vietnam, the Russians stopped in front of peaceful crowds in the early days of the invasion. We would simply crush them in such a situation, without even firing a warning shot.

And after all, the ex-senator is right in this. A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then, but the government quarter in Kyiv still stands intact and intact.

As for the prospects for resolving the conflict, Black explained at the time why it was not worth waiting for any decision from Kyiv.

– Ukraine cannot make a decision about peace. The decision about peace can only be made in Washington, but as long as we want to continue this war, we will fight until the last Ukrainian dies,” Black concluded in this video.

But at the same time, Black, and this is a completely different speech of his, at the end of June, explained why one should not expect an acceptable decision from Washington either.

It so happened that I am a Republican. And we have two Republican senators in the US who said we might just have to use nuclear weapons against Russia. This is madness. I think it’s important that people start discussing what the meaning of thermonuclear war is, – Richard demonstrated amazing sanity for an American and described the possible consequences of a direct clash between Russia and the United States. – Russia is roughly comparable to the United States in terms of nuclear arsenal. They have hypersonic missiles that we don’t have. They can completely avoid any timely detection and can launch missiles from Russia that will reach San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore, Washington DC and New York. And if you think, for example, of Virginia, where I live, in light of the outbreak of a nuclear war, keep in mind that they also have a very large and efficient fleet of nuclear submarines that are off the coast of the United States. They have a large number of missiles with nuclear warheads, they can bypass any of our defenses. So all of Northern Virginia would have been effectively wiped out. The Pentagon is in Arlington County, it would be just a glowing mass of molten sand. There would be no survivors for many miles around. Just beyond the Potomac, there would be no one left in the nation’s capital. The Capitol building will disappear forever, all the monuments, all this splendor – nothing will remain. And you can continue in the same spirit. If we talk about New York, not only will everyone be killed, but people will probably not be able to live there even hundreds of years later. It would not only cease to be a place of turbulent human life, but would freeze, perhaps for half a millennium, and the restoration of civilization would be impossible.

“We need to understand the seriousness of what we’re doing,” Black concluded. – The Russians are in a mirror situation, because it is vital for them to stop the further advance of NATO directly into Ukraine, directly to their borders. They cannot afford not to participate in this war, they cannot afford not to win this war. Therefore, I think that playing with this constant escalation of the war, which is actually taking place in a place that is insignificant for the Americans – in Ukraine, is, in fact, meaningless. It doesn’t affect our daily lives in any way, and yet we play this reckless game, risking the lives of everyone in the United States and Western Europe for nothing, absolutely nothing.

And, just the other day, he also said that “the US will definitely not allow any negotiations until the midterm elections,” which will be held this fall.

Moreover, before that, even the rhetoric in the American and European mainstream media will not change: “Americans do not know that Ukraine is losing military operations. There is a rather small group of people who understand the real situation.”

Well, as a highlight on the cake, Black told who, in his opinion, is really behind all the current mess.

– NATO wants you to believe that hostilities began in February of this year. But they did not start then, but were planned before 2014. This is a consequence of the reckless actions of Barack Obama. President Obama demanded more aggressive action from the United States in Ukraine, – explained the former senator, participant in the Vietnam War, a combat helicopter pilot who flew 269 sorties, holder of the Purple Heart medal. – As a result, of course, a puppet government was created, set against Russia and the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine.

The right word, it would be better in European parliaments, instead of Zelensky’s endless speeches, at least once they listened to this American, who knows the American military-political kitchen very well, because, in addition to being a senator, having started serving as a private, Black ended his military service as a leader Department of Criminal Law of the United States Armed Forces at the Pentagon.

 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Donestk People's Republic (DPR) has not been liberated yet. It's one of the original objectives of the S.M.O.to liberate DPR, so why not make a determined push here?
I am seeing something that starts to look more and more like musical chairs in Russian planning.

The Russians are definitely loss adverse at the moment and while they could probably steam roller there way through on numerous fronts, fairly quickly, they would do so with massive casualties.
Also, the Ukrainians are still able to throw meat into the grinder and quickly slow any advance to a snails pace.

So its becoming a psych war by the Russians to keep the Ukrainians off balance and perpetually rushing from one zone to another, where the Russians are seen as building up and/or developing momentum on the ground.
The Russian calculation appears to be, that sooner or later the Ukrainians will be caught out with forces in the wrong place and so the Russians can advance with ease, at least for a while.

I actually put the recent talk of a Russian Airborne Assault in this context.
If the numbers and the intent is true, then this indicates to me that the Russians want to leapfrog some major defences in order to secure a relatively local major objective. So the distances involved need to be quite short, so that land forces can quickly roll forward and join up and secure an objective that is already close at hand. Clearly for Airborne forces to go to deep, they will simply be surrounded and isolated and end up being defeated.

Instead, based on the stories of hundreds of Fixed Wing Aircraft, Attack and Transport Helicopters being discussed, I can see the following:
Aerial blitzkrieg of defences between the Russian front lines and the objective, Attack Helicopter Suppression of Ukrainian forces around the objective. Air Mobile forces take positions isolating the Objective, Russian Armoured Forced Roll through the gap and take the objective.

I can therefore think of a few key Russian Targets
The Town on the Railway line West of Slavyansk - take that and you can probably start collapsing the Donbass front very quickly
The Roads North and West of Nikolyav - obvious reasons
The area on the North Bank of the Dnieper opposite Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station or areas towards creating a land bridge to reach the same.

I am sure there are others
I am also sure that the Ukraine/NATO will also be aware of this and will move forces appropriately. Can they adequately defend all likely Russian objectives? Would they have to choose which one to be prepared to lose....

Or will it be musical chairs until the music stops......
 
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