The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
It’s not the piece itself, like I said it can be useful.

But when those T-62s were seen on the railcars, many observers took it as a sign of the diminishment of Russian forces.

So what can we make of military aid going from the M777 to 105s, right?

The 105s still matter as much as the T-62s. Also I am going to add that tanks are being used mainly for bombardment anyway, so T-62s can certainly do the cut there.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Thing is, if you are going back 105, might as well ask for more D-30, which at least can be used on a direct fire AT role, too
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
They really should've pulled a sino-vietnamese war and go back to Feb 24th line after "Punishing the Nazis". It would've brought a quick end to the war while also destroying a fair chunk of Ukranian hardware as the West would not be so eager to supply Ukraine when they're not actively fighting, now Russia is stuck in a quagmire with only one real card to play against Europe of which is the energy supply, if the EU survive this winter that card becomes effectively useless as they re-pivot the energy sector.
What make you think the EU is going to get through the winter unscathed with the food issues, oil and gas issues along with inflation going up like mad. The EU isn’t going to come out stronger after this winter, they are only going to come out a whole lot weaker. Germany hasn’t even filled its gas reserves and they are already trying to do rationing. This is going to be next to impossible during winter and once winter truly hits, Germany is going to be in a world of hurt, along with the rest of the EU which rely heavily on Germany for bailouts. Besides, Russia isn’t going to stop until they take all of Ukraine since Zelensky isn’t going to negotiate at all
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
What make you think the EU is going to get through the winter unscathed with the food issues, oil and gas issues along with inflation going up like mad. The EU isn’t going to come out stronger after this winter, they are only going to come out a whole lot weaker. Germany hasn’t even filled its gas reserves and they are already trying to do rationing. This is going to be next to impossible during winter and once winter truly hits, Germany is going to be in a world of hurt, along with the rest of the EU which rely heavily on Germany for bailouts. Besides, Russia isn’t going to stop until they take all of Ukraine since Zelensky isn’t going to negotiate at all.
I just meant the overall situation, the one gambit Russia has left right now to pressure Europe is gas supplies, if EU survives the winter, they'll have free reign to give Ukraine their whole armoury, that's why Ukraine is also banking on not negotiating, after all if they negotiate they are guaranteed to lose out, but if they survive the winter, there is a good chance that EU will find a alternative supplier for their energy needs and go all in on supporting Ukraine.

It wasn't quite that long ago when feb 24 line was a real, acceptable outcome for Ukraine, but now that Russia is no longer aggressively pushing, they do not feel the need to sue for peace so hard.
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
I just meant the overall situation, the one gambit Russia has left right now to pressure Europe is gas supplies, if EU survives the winter, they'll have free reign to give Ukraine their whole armoury, that's why Ukraine is also banking on not negotiating, after all if they negotiate they are guaranteed to lose out, but if they survive the winter, there is a good chance that EU will find a alternative supplier for their energy needs and go all in on supporting Ukraine.

It wasn't quite that long ago when feb 24 line was a real, acceptable outcome for Ukraine, but now that Russia is no longer aggressively pushing, they do not feel the need to sue for peace so hard.
Does Europe event have the ability to produce all those weapons to the extent Russia does and how much of Ukraine is going to be left at the end of the day with the kind of causality's they have right now, they may literally have no men left to fight by the time winter is done. And no, there is literally no other nation that can feed the EU gas needs in the next few years given how difficult and costly is it to transport these resources to Europe and none have the reserves other then Russia to do so. Much of the Middle East have given Germany the cold shoulder then the German Chancelor came begging for resources. Ukraine doesn’t have all winter to some how tank the kind of shelling that will be coming when Ukraine has no food, gas or electricity and a limited amount of weapons to last in a situation that literally favors Russia to the greatest extent, not when much of Ukraines best fighters are already dead.
 

memfisa

Junior Member
Registered Member
I just meant the overall situation, the one gambit Russia has left right now to pressure Europe is gas supplies, if EU survives the winter, they'll have free reign to give Ukraine their whole armoury, that's why Ukraine is also banking on not negotiating, after all if they negotiate they are guaranteed to lose out, but if they survive the winter, there is a good chance that EU will find a alternative supplier for their energy needs and go all in on supporting Ukraine.

It wasn't quite that long ago when feb 24 line was a real, acceptable outcome for Ukraine, but now that Russia is no longer aggressively pushing, they do not feel the need to sue for peace so hard.

There aren't alternative gas suppliers with pipelines feeding into the EU Grid able to replace the levels from Russia. Their only medium term option is to buy LNG from Canada, USA, Gulf states etc.

Not very economic when you factor in the supplies of an already expensive and limited commodity with also limited means of transportation, are further hampered by hugely increased demand. Great for shareholders and anyone else selling LNG (Like Russians lol)

Limited supply and skyrocketing demand = daddy needs a new luxury yacht

Send everything they have to Ukraine, it hasnt stopped Russians yet and won't. They're just making denazification of western Europe easier.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
There aren't alternative gas suppliers with pipelines feeding into the EU Grid able to replace the levels from Russia. Their only medium term option is to buy LNG from Canada, USA, Gulf states etc.

Not very economic when you factor in the supplies of an already expensive and limited commodity with also limited means of transportation, are further hampered by hugely increased demand. Great for shareholders and anyone else selling LNG (Like Russians lol)

Limited supply and skyrocketing demand = daddy needs a new luxury yacht

Send everything they have to Ukraine, it hasnt stopped Russians yet and won't. They're just making denazification of western Europe easier.
Well, if anyone think that the EU gas demand will be replaced with LNG has dreams.

IT will be replaced with coal and wood, the installation of new furnances will skyrocket.


Quick back on the envelope calculation :
HEating a mid range home during winter used to cost £800 with gas, and £850 with coal.
Now it will cost around £5000 with gas, or £1600 with coal.

What will be the result ?
Spoiler: not LNG import.
What is cheaper to ship, coal or LNG ?
What mining easier to scale up, LNG or coal ?


Expected a huge explosion of conversion back to solid fuel, and installation of new multifuel boilers and stoves.


Nice chimneys will be erected on the after 80s houses, that lack any solid fuel heating system.


So, there goes all CO2 emission and the air polution norms.

And the "Green party" and "Global Warming" will be a swear word for a while.
 

memfisa

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, if anyone think that the EU gas demand will be replaced with LNG has dreams.

IT will be replaced with coal and wood, the installation of new furnances will skyrocket.


Quick back on the envelope calculation :
HEating a mid range home during winter used to cost £800 with gas, and £850 with coal.
Now it will cost around £5000 with gas, or £1600 with coal.

What will be the result ?
Spoiler: not LNG import.
What is cheaper to ship, coal or LNG ?
What mining easier to scale up, LNG or coal ?


Expected a huge explosion of conversion back to solid fuel, and installation of new multifuel boilers and stoves.


Nice chimneys will be erected on the after 80s houses, that lack any solid fuel heating system.


So, there goes all CO2 emission and the air polution norms.

And the "Green party" and "Global Warming" will be a swear word for a while.
Everyone wins here! Well except European people. Increased price if coal on the market is good for coal exporters.

Caveat is there are well over 800 natural gas power plants across Europe that contribute roughly 250 gigawatts to European electricity grids, they have gas turbines that don't run very well on coal.

That's a very significant chunk of their grid, and a hefty trillions in investment to sit idle.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Everyone wins here! Well except European people. Increased price if coal on the market is good for coal exporters.

Caveat is there are well over 800 natural gas power plants across Europe that contribute roughly 250 gigawatts to European electricity grids, they have gas turbines that don't run very well on coal.

That's a very significant chunk of their grid, and a hefty trillions in investment to sit idle.
Correct, but if the heating switch over to coal then there will be enought gas left till the new coal + nuclear plants go online.
 
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