The War in the Ukraine

memfisa

Junior Member
Registered Member
There's Some chatter around telegram channels about missiles comming in from Belarus and lots of movement of military equipment there.

Maybe very soon we will see all those twitter bots with Ukraine flags being switched over to Taiwan flags
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Well, if anyone think that the EU gas demand will be replaced with LNG has dreams.

IT will be replaced with coal and wood, the installation of new furnances will skyrocket.


Quick back on the envelope calculation :
HEating a mid range home during winter used to cost £800 with gas, and £850 with coal.
Now it will cost around £5000 with gas, or £1600 with coal.

What will be the result ?
Spoiler: not LNG import.
What is cheaper to ship, coal or LNG ?
What mining easier to scale up, LNG or coal ?


Expected a huge explosion of conversion back to solid fuel, and installation of new multifuel boilers and stoves.


Nice chimneys will be erected on the after 80s houses, that lack any solid fuel heating system.


So, there goes all CO2 emission and the air polution norms.

And the "Green party" and "Global Warming" will be a swear word for a while.
In any case, it's impossible to build enough ports and ship for LNG before 10 or so years... even coal will be difficult if the demand soar. But demand will go down with industry closing so maybe 6-7 years is possible to have enough energy and lowering prices.

Maybe they will add pyrolysis system and transform coal/biomass/trash into gaz to feed their LNG turbines ?

If they continue to piss-off Russia the EU will be in an incredible mess for a long time, no way they will come back easily to the prewar level, so many investment to do. EU will probably drop the towel about Ukraine if they are a bit sane with concessions from Russia to stop after taking Ukraine. America will probably continue because it help them against the European Union more or less.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
I just meant the overall situation, the one gambit Russia has left right now to pressure Europe is gas supplies, if EU survives the winter, they'll have free reign to give Ukraine their whole armoury, that's why Ukraine is also banking on not negotiating, after all if they negotiate they are guaranteed to lose out, but if they survive the winter, there is a good chance that EU will find a alternative supplier for their energy needs and go all in on supporting Ukraine.

It wasn't quite that long ago when feb 24 line was a real, acceptable outcome for Ukraine, but now that Russia is no longer aggressively pushing, they do not feel the need to sue for peace so hard.
This isn't Command and Conquer...
Even if the entire European arsenal was handed over to the Ukrainian military, they lack skilled operators or probably enough operators

Plus it's not like these countries have thousands of tanks or something, Netherlands for example basically has 0

If you are talking about a war-scale production/supply of weapons, then the other issue is, who is going to pay for this steel and labour? Certainly not Ukraine.

What is "go all in"? That is attack Russia themselves? If that was the distance they were going to go, then they should have done that already.

Stupid conflict. No winners, only losers.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I keep hearing from multiple sources that there's an ongoing Russian assault towards Nikolaev and they have advanced 3km, anyone else heard anything?

Here's a map from Russian sources, they are claiming a two pronged attack:
Russian forces have advanced a few miles but I think it's because of the collapse of the Ukrainian offensive against Kherson more than anything else.

I don't think Russians will take any more cities until the Ukrainian regime collapses. All these cities in east Ukraine require large garrisons to prevent uprisings and are costing NATO billions in upkeep.

A recent video of Pisky was posted on Russian telegrams. Looks like the Ukrops got wrecked there.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
Russian forces have advanced a few miles but I think it's because of the collapse of the Ukrainian offensive against Kherson more than anything else.

I don't think Russians will take any more cities until the Ukrainian regime collapses. All these cities in east Ukraine require large garrisons to prevent uprisings and are costing NATO billions in upkeep.

A recent video of Pisky was posted on Russian telegrams. Looks like the Ukrops got wrecked there.
Do you mean costing Russia billions? Are there uprisings in the Ukrainian controlled eastern cities?
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
I mean the general upkeep of cities, paying for public sector workers. Ukraine has no income right now, everything is being paid for by the EU.

EU is only funding a portion of it. The vast majority is coming from money printing and stacking the debt ever higher. There is a higher risk of hyperinflation for Ukraine.
 
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