Fight's over or these Ukr troops.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Very interesting, seems like the high casualty rate among the VDV compared to other Russian branches is likely true and really puts into question their effectiveness going forward. Also lots of experts commenting on how airborne troops will have a reduced role going forward in future conflicts, especially against any near-peer / non-insurgency enemy.
Claimed to be footage of Kh-59MK2. Seems like it has the same GUI as Hermes / 305 NLOS missiles.
It's not surprising that VDV had one of the highest causality rates. They are always the vanguard of an offensive, while riding in lightly armored vehicles. It was the same in Chechnya.
Thanks for the info. Assuming this method of counting is 50% undercounting, we arrive at under 7000 in 4.5 months, or 1500 per month. These first few months are the most difficult for the Russians since they are
1. Dealing with Ukrainian troops that spent the last eight years entrenching.
2. Ukraine side had professional troops that still have a lot of fight left in them, at least up until Mariupol and Poposna.
3. The Ukrainian weapons have not been degraded as much as they are now.
The Ukrainian side is facing much more difficult problems.
1. Some estimate Ukrainian casualties at 200-300 dead per day. Even the Ukraine side first admitted to 100 per day and later said it was higher. Even an average of 150 per day since the beginning of the war put this at 20000, or three times the Russian casualties.
2. Since the Russians are rotating their troops and the losses are spread out more to different units, they are increasing their combat effectiveness. When the troops go through combat, their combat effectiveness increases, where as losing troops means they lose combat effectiveness. The problem with Ukraine is that they are not able to rotate their troops. This means entire units are taken out, losing their most battle hardened and well trained troops wholesale.
3. They are steadily losing more and more of their artillery, even as the West sent in more. They have lost most of their armor. This means they can only dig in and get bombarded. No maneuvering warfare for them. As the Russians are able to maneuver, things will get worse and worse if you stay in one place.
4. They have a huge desertion problem which will only get worse. I am sure there are some desertion on the Russian side, but nowhere near as bad, especially the new troops are volunteers and not dragged off the parking lot like the Ukrainian side.
5. They are losing their geographical advantage. Once Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are taken, all the frontline that they spent the last eight years building are gone. What is left are a few cities defended by inadequate number of troops and even fewer professional troops. On the Russian side, they have found a tried and true way to take a city. Once Donbass is taken and they straighten out their frontline, these cities will be surrounded by all sides and bombarded to submission. We will see how fast these big cities like Kharkiv fall, but I would not be surprised if they go pretty quickly.
Once the Russians finish with Donbass, and take the couple of big cities along the Dnipro, they will be able to sweep across Western Ukraine relatively unopposed. With mostly inexperienced troops and lack of equipment, the Ukraine side might take eight dead for every Russian one instead of the three to one for the last few months.
The Russians will probably stick to a strategy similar to Lysychansk than that of Mariupol. I don’t think they will continue encircling and bombarding cities into submission but leave gaps for Ukrainians to escape under heavy Russian attacks. It’s a lot easier to kill hordes of Ukrainian soldiers on the run than stubborn resistance on the streets until they run out of supplies.
It's been about a week now or slightly over since Russians took over Lysychansk, depending on how you count.
Per Putin the troops involved in the liberation of Lysychansk are recuperating, we are still seeing some other Russian forces on the offensive hence Grigorivka changing hands yesterday. With the front line now shorter once Russians are back to all hands on deck we should see much denser concentration of trooper in Donbas then before.
I'm guessing it will be about another week before serious fighting starts, IIRC last time around there was also a 2 week break between Popasna breakout running out of steam and attack on Severodonetsk beginning.
Per Putin the troops involved in the liberation of Lysychansk are recuperating, we are still seeing some other Russian forces on the offensive hence Grigorivka changing hands yesterday. With the front line now shorter once Russians are back to all hands on deck we should see much denser concentration of trooper in Donbas then before.
I'm guessing it will be about another week before serious fighting starts, IIRC last time around there was also a 2 week break between Popasna breakout running out of steam and attack on Severodonetsk beginning.
Now all of Luhansk oblast is enemy to Kiev regime. The numbers game for Donetsk oblast just got worse for Kiev regime. Before, they only had to deal with Russia and DPR in Donetsk oblast. Now they have to deal with Russia, DPR, LPR, and they are more out numbered than ever in Donetsk oblast.
I know this isn't the right place for this, but no one is talking about it anywhere else, and I kind of feel like I have to spill my guts. Well, today marks the 79th year since the beginning of the genocide of Poles in Volhynia, Galicia and Lesser Poland at the hands of Ukrainians. You might think there would be some sort of a somber get-together of Presidents or PMs at some memorial statue somewhere, alas, there are none, and there are no official celebrations.
You might expect that with some milions of Ukrainians being our "guests" there might be some documentaries shown on TV or something, to raise their awareness, but there hasn't been a peep. You might at least expect the news segments to throw in a mention of it being 79 years today, and maybe swapping that blue and yellow ribbon to a flax flower, which symbolizes this event. You'd be wrong. The ONLY mention I've seen anywhere is to beware of Russia trying to use it as a provocation.
Between 100 and 200 thousand people were killed in a manner which would make even the most sadistic butcher blush. Now 38 million other people keep their traps shut. I am generally pretty proud of being Polish. Today, I feel ashamed.
You might expect that with some milions of Ukrainians being our "guests" there might be some documentaries shown on TV or something, to raise their awareness, but there hasn't been a peep. You might at least expect the news segments to throw in a mention of it being 79 years today, and maybe swapping that blue and yellow ribbon to a flax flower, which symbolizes this event. You'd be wrong. The ONLY mention I've seen anywhere is to beware of Russia trying to use it as a provocation.
Between 100 and 200 thousand people were killed in a manner which would make even the most sadistic butcher blush. Now 38 million other people keep their traps shut. I am generally pretty proud of being Polish. Today, I feel ashamed.
Lethe
Captain
I was not previously aware of this history, so I thank you for bringing it to my attention. Alas, the past has always been remarkably malleable to serve needs of the present, and I suspect this is true of most times, most places. In this case, the contemporary political impetus is to show solidarity with Ukraine, and the unfortunate consequence is that a dark chapter in Polish-Ukrainian history is to be diminished, elided, ignored in official discourse. One can argue that there are moral benefits to suppressing such ugly narratives in favour of peace and comity in the present, but that is not what is occurring here. The solidarity that is today being urged with Ukraine is part of a broader imperative which seeks to create a Manichean distinction between Russia, representing the forces of evil and darkness, in contrast with Ukraine, representing all that is virtuous and innocent, and this absolutist framework inevitably mitigates against the prospects for peace and an end to suffering in the present conflict.
The strongest rebuke I have encountered to this "instrumental" use of history as a tool to advance current political objectives, or favoured narratives, comes from the African-American writer Ta-Nehisi Coates, writing about slavery in the Americas:
You must struggle to remember this past in all its nuance, error, and humanity. You must resist the urge toward comforting narratives, toward fairy tales that imply some irrepressible justice. The enslaved were not bricks in your road, and their lives were not chapters in your redemptive history. They were people turned to fuel for the American machine. Enslavement was not destined to end, and it is wrong to claim our present circumstances as redemption for the lives of those who never asked for the glory of dying for their children.
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