The War in the Ukraine

S

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
Missiles typically have some 93% of reliability according to E.Fleeman's Tactical Missile Design book. and US sent some 5000. 350 among those is expected to be dud. Which might be the one delivered to the poor guy's unit.

But of course age of the stock might impact reliability. Thus there is concept of "guaranteed life" where the missile is expected to be fully functional in that timeline. e.g 10 years before needing overhaul or life extension. Beyond that, reliability decreases. The missile may still be usable but well its probability of failure increase.
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Stealthflanker said:
Missiles typically have some 93% of reliability according to E.Fleeman's Tactical Missile Design book. and US sent some 5000. 350 among those is expected to be dud. Which might be the one delivered to the poor guy's unit.

But of course age of the stock might impact reliability. Thus there is concept of "guaranteed life" where the missile is expected to be fully functional in that timeline. e.g 10 years before needing overhaul or life extension. Beyond that, reliability decreases. The missile may still be usable but well its probability of failure increase.
Click to expand...
I remember reading that most of the Javelins Ukraine is receiving are Block 0 which were manufactured between 1996 and 2008, so it could explain the high failure rate since they are way beyond that 10 years time.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
I remember reading that most of the Javelins Ukraine is receiving are Block 0 which were manufactured between 1996 and 2008, so it could explain the high failure rate since they are way beyond that 10 years time.
Click to expand...
Innovative way to quickly throw out your old stock while keeping the MIC happy on resupplying you with newer and many times more expensive replacements...

Truly a Win-Win for everyone involved
 
P

pmc

Major
Registered Member
MortyandRick said:
Well to be frank, passing off a video game as combat footage and developing the ghost of Kiev lie just to give a few examples, gives me a higher level of skepticism towards anything coming from Ukraine.
Click to expand...

there was statement circulating in social media a while ago whether true or false (does not matter) where Zelensky mentioned that TB-2 drones not particular useful. This could have triggered this senseless operation where they have reasonable chance of flying around. the people behind Turkish-Ukrainian cooperation have vested interest. Both Turkey and Ukraine are wannabe Germanic country but have very little to show in engineering development which can be considered there own.
both Turkey and Ukraine in Syria and Ukranian crises ask billions from Germany. very similar behavior.
in Syria especially the TB-2 drone was shown as winning untill Erdogan signed the deal. years later Russian made a film about it where claim of shooting down over 40 TB-2 drones and that with 90s era export Pantsir/BuK system they will never acknowledge that TB-2 drone only usefull when SAMs are inactive or just 30 years old tech not able to deal with all flight profiles. At this point using this
turbo prop drone is dangerous as Russia does not need to shoot it down immediately but just follow it up to its base on return flight.
only now they are exporting this updated model of Pantsir.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
K

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
panzerfeist1 said:
View attachment 88471

View attachment 88472

Heard there were talks about TB2 strikes in the last few pages back is it this one?
Click to expand...
LawLeadsToPeace said:
Yep. A user posted a Twitter link to a video of it and stated that it was a helicopter of Russians getting vaporized by the TB-2. Southfront reported that as well. However. there are claims that it was a friendly fire incident.
Click to expand...
Russia's own PMC, Wagner are saying this helicopter was Russian not Ukrainian and those were special forces. And that the enemy destroyed the Mi-8.

The incompetence of the Russians have surprised me. The only group making gains for them are the SOF Spetsnaz, DPR militia men (this group did a lot in Mariupol), the Chechens, and recently the Wagner PMC. I don't see much from others; maybe they don't post enough about their success. Russian marines were also doing lots of fighting in Mariupol and are probably the ones storming the last stronghold in that city.

I can't tell what the Russian army is doing. They are involve but not to a great extent. Russian National Guards just come in and take control once an area has been captured. But so far I see them located in major cities with the bulk in Kherson.

The front line fighting are done in small groups BTGs after artillery and air strikes and this tactic is not effective as it is leaving the rears in Kharkiv and Izyum exposed to Ukraine counter which are happening now.

This is ineptitude is so ridiculous that I'm lost in how to process this. Everything I learned about Soviet doctrine and subsequent Russia's doctrine have been proving wrong. Russia's corruption is so deed that they can't get this done right. PLA needs to take heavy notes and realize this is not how to fight a major fight if any lessons are to be taken from this war. US showed the world how it is done numerous times in the 1990s and 2000s and yet Russia can't remotely replicate it.

For now everything points to lack of troops. Their tactics are not entirely bad. They just need more commitment. Otherwise they will suffer unnecessary casualties.
 
Z

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Former NATO Allied Commander Gen. Wesley Clarke delivers a rather ominous message to CNN: there is no long term strategy for Ukraine. Once the ground hardens up by late June, he predicts Russia will make a full switch to maneuver warfare. If NATO does not supply Ukraine by then with long range tube and rocket artillery, plus aircraft they will find it very difficult to resist Russia in the summer months. In the meantime, Russia is slowly destroying Ukraine's supply lines and infrastructure making it more difficult to deliver weapons and ammo to the battlefront.

Even more ominous is his warning about the possibility that tactical nuclear weapons might be used, which he describes as "just another way to kill people". We shouldn't be afraid of such weapons. If Russia uses those weapons and fires off 4 or 5 nukes, it will be to their disadvantage.

Finally, even though the Russian armed forces appear incompetent at the moment, that will not last. Eventually with enough generals dead and fired, they will get the competent people in charge. Therefore, time is not on Ukraine's side ...
 
sequ

sequ

Major
Registered Member
pmc said:
there was statement circulating in social media a while ago whether true or false (does not matter) where Zelensky mentioned that TB-2 drones not particular useful. This could have triggered this senseless operation where they have reasonable chance of flying around. the people behind Turkish-Ukrainian cooperation have vested interest. Both Turkey and Ukraine are wannabe Germanic country but have very little to show in engineering development which can be considered there own.
both Turkey and Ukraine in Syria and Ukranian crises ask billions from Germany. very similar behavior.
in Syria especially the TB-2 drone was shown as winning untill Erdogan signed the deal. years later Russian made a film about it where claim of shooting down over 40 TB-2 drones and that with 90s era export Pantsir/BuK system they will never acknowledge that TB-2 drone only usefull when SAMs are inactive or just 30 years old tech not able to deal with all flight profiles. At this point using this
turbo prop drone is dangerous as Russia does not need to shoot it down immediately but just follow it up to its base on return flight.
only now they are exporting this updated model of Pantsir.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Click to expand...
Something in me wants to go all @by78 over you, but I don't wanna get banned :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top