The War in the Ukraine

Abominable said:

Now hit it with a tactical nuke. Otherwise Ukrainians will be able to post anti ship missiles on it.

Click to expand...

Even if they do. The system wont be able to do Scout and shoot tactics. it run into the risk of being deleted as soon as it lands or as soon as it shoot. The system have better survivability in Ukrainian mainland where it have much wider space to maneuver after firing.

enroger said:

Interesting point about switchblades, afaik currently switchblade aren't autonomous and still require datalink, I wonder if it is possible to put up a jamming bubble to protect the island... On that note TB-2's weaponry also has limited range under 20km, if EW can reach that far it is possible to defend against it

Click to expand...

Yeah that is possible. I dont have much faith tho in datalink jamming as it can be easily LPI, not in good position to jam or having low gain that it requires relatively high power to put enough noise in it.

Presence of ECM facility may in turn further increase the "value" of the island to the Ukrainians that they may commit whatever left in their Tochka Arsenal.

There are rumors circulating on russian telegram channels(take that as you will) that the US is pressuring Ukraine to achieve something big enough, even if symbolic, to spoil the Victory Day parade. Maybe this raid on Snake Island has something to do with it.

Also, apparently one of the Brimstone missiles delivered by the UK failed and was caught intact though.

Failed to launch maybe ? The missile is in relatively pristine condition. If it crashed i expect it to get flattened or damaged by the shock .

The most interesting thing would be platform as there seems to be no surface/land based Brimestone launcher yet. Maybe they jerry rigged it similar as that "Man portable" tripod mounted hellfire. Or maybe cooperate with Poland and give Ukraine the BVP-1 "tank destroyer" with Brimestone capability.

Defence Politics Asia has done a detailed video on the Snake Island events.

Plenty of room for interpretation of the events, but I think the final images rather confirm the overall drift of the tale.
to whit: Small boats heading away from the Island towards the Odessa coast and Jet Contrails heading towards the Crimea.

If the Ukraine had small boats near the Island it gives the storming story great creedence and if the boats end up retreating fast away from the Island with Russian Jets in command of the Sky, then it gives the Russian account much greater credibility.

I think its fair to conclude that the Ukrainian operation failed and failed disastrously.

As for snake Island, until there is a meaning offensive against the Odessa region, I fail to see what purpose a garrison on the Island really serves.

Actually SDF member ans Aus Military Veteran SAC did a good video about an operation against the Odessa region. link below

Stealthflanker said:

Even if they do. The system wont be able to do Scout and shoot tactics. it run into the risk of being deleted as soon as it lands or as soon as it shoot. The system have better survivability in Ukrainian mainland where it have much wider space to maneuver after firing.

Click to expand...

Of course they would. Operate them the same as their anti-air systems. Keep the radar turned off and depend on NATO for monitoring of sea vessels. If a Russian ship enters missile range, turn on the radar and fire the missile.

lucretius said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523262196146491394

Click to expand...

I don't see that on any Russian telegram channel.

What they are claiming is that at the time of the Ukrainian assault all Russians had withdrawn. The Mi-8 that was filmed being taken out was a Ukrainian one hit by friendly fire. The soldiers do look they are disembarking on the video, which corroborates the Russian account.

Overbom said:

There is a simple rule on distinguishing between real or fake footage:

• Footage showing Russia pummeling Ukrainian forces: Real
• Footage showing Ukraine pummeling Russian forces: Fake

Click to expand...

Well to be frank, passing off a video game as combat footage and developing the ghost of Kiev lie just to give a few examples, gives me a higher level of skepticism towards anything coming from Ukraine.

As much as western propaganda keeps pushing the "Ukraine is winning" narrative, we sometimes hear titbits of truth from them. It's usually from deserting western soldiers who've realised it's a real war where Ukrainians are getting slaughtered en masse.

Here's "shadow" a western soldier who was buddies with Wali.

Abominable said:

As much as western propaganda keeps pushing the "Ukraine is winning" narrative, we sometimes hear titbits of truth from them. It's usually from deserting western soldiers who've realised it's a real war where Ukrainians are getting slaughtered en masse.

Here's "shadow" a western soldier who was buddies with Wali.

Click to expand...

Not exactly sure when, but from Su shifu on guanqi this week, he basically said that he was getting info that the push in eastern Ukraine is just '还行' basically being 'somewhat ok'.

Noting that it's been slow, but methodical, and that Ukraine might be losing some ~100s (could be 200, 300 or more) of men directly (death, wounded etc.) and like another ~100 surrendering/getting captured. So like 2-3 days can very well amount to a 'loss' of +~1000 men.

And Russia is not losing anything close to the above (at least the last couple of weeks).

Abominable said:

I don't see that on any Russian telegram channel.

What they are claiming is that at the time of the Ukrainian assault all Russians had withdrawn. The Mi-8 that was filmed being taken out was a Ukrainian one hit by friendly fire. The soldiers do look they are disembarking on the video, which corroborates the Russian account.

Click to expand...

Southfront reports that the helicopter was carrying members of Russian special forces involved in evacuation from the island.

Michaelsinodef said:

Not exactly sure when, but from Su shifu on guanqi this week, he basically said that he was getting info that the push in eastern Ukraine is just '还行' basically being 'somewhat ok'.

Noting that it's been slow, but methodical, and that Ukraine might be losing some ~100s (could be 200, 300 or more) of men directly (death, wounded etc.) and like another ~100 surrendering/getting captured. So like 2-3 days can very well amount to a 'loss' of +~1000 men.

And Russia is not losing anything close to the above (at least the last couple of weeks).

Click to expand...

Slow and methodical is the way Russia should have been fighting from the start. Don't take any more Ukrainian cities or territory until you've wiped out the Ukrainian army.