The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russia's own PMC, Wagner are saying this helicopter was Russian not Ukrainian and those were special forces. And that the enemy destroyed the Mi-8.

The incompetence of the Russians have surprised me. The only group making gains for them are the SOF Spetsnaz, DPR militia men (this group did a lot in Mariupol), the Chechens, and recently the Wagner PMC. I don't see much from others; maybe they don't post enough about their success. Russian marines were also doing lots of fighting in Mariupol and are probably the ones storming the last stronghold in that city.

I can't tell what the Russian army is doing. They are involve but not to a great extent. Russian National Guards just come in and take control once an area has been captured. But so far I see them located in major cities with the bulk in Kherson.

The front line fighting are done in small groups BTGs after artillery and air strikes and this tactic is not effective as it is leaving the rears in Kharkiv and Izyum exposed to Ukraine counter which are happening now.

This is ineptitude is so ridiculous that I'm lost in how to process this. Everything I learned about Soviet doctrine and subsequent Russia's doctrine have been proving wrong. Russia's corruption is so deed that they can't get this done right. PLA needs to take heavy notes and realize this is not how to fight a major fight if any lessons are to be taken from this war. US showed the world how it is done numerous times in the 1990s and 2000s and yet Russia can't remotely replicate it.

For now everything points to lack of troops. Their tactics are not entirely bad. They just need more commitment. Otherwise they will suffer unnecessary casualties.

I find Russian artillery to be very effective, combined with PGM and missile strikes. There is some good drone coordination out there. They have been targeting logistical and transportation centers with great effect. That's causing a paralysis of supply and reinforcement, and the general sense that the Ukrainian army is becoming increasingly less mobile due to the lack of fuel.

I also find the Ukrainian military to be questionable and highly incompetent, in a way, a smaller scaled version of its incompetent Russian counterpart. Maybe even worst. Volksturm and human wave tactics, throwing untrained, underequipped people to the front where they are getting decimated, lack of proper basic material --- namely guns, bullets and food --- supplied to the front. The over reliance and promise of Wunderwaffen that turns out to be unreliable. The willingness to trade lives for every inch of the ground, whereas the Russians are willing to lose ground to conserve lives and material. If you study WW2 history of the Ostfront you will know what I mean. The most obvious and questionable decisions lie in allowing forces in the front to be encircled and trapped into bubbles, without any order of withdrawal, letting these forces to be grinded down and annihilated.

This is not to say that the Russian forces should have performed better, which they should. Its a contest of errors, both sides making bad ones.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
I have @pmc (aka Russian Jai Hind) on my ignore list, and it has made reading Ukraine/Russian threads a lot easier. ;)
i will give credit when it is due but Ukraine is showing strange behavior that is very identical to what happened in previous conflicts around Middleast. that make everything questionable and second guessing. i am sure German industrialist noted it.
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
What are the consequence or not showing up ? If it's true, it will be a lot of fresh troops to the front, and green fresh... but probably enough to keep ground behind the front line and running supply at first.
I actually deleted that post. Maybe a fake.
 

Bill Blazo

Junior Member
Registered Member
I know I'm late to the party, but I'm also glad the thread is back. Looking forward to many updates and engaging conversations, as usual. Honestly the old thread was a very therapeutic gateway for me; it allowed me to get away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life and discuss something that I usually don't talk about with friends and family. So I'm really happy we get to do it again.

I'll have updates and thoughts on this unpredictable war later.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
Day 74. We're still discussing Azovstal, Izyum, Snake Island, Kharkov and Popasna.

Posters claiming claiming the side they don't support is tossing out faked imagery and

I see lots of progress both here and in the warzone. /snark.

Two of the most stubborn cultures I know of personally have gone to war. This isn't going to end any time soon. This war has legs and is going to keep running for a while.

Seriously, wait and see, folks.
I’m still ...
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Not exactly sure when, but from Su shifu on guanqi this week, he basically said that he was getting info that the push in eastern Ukraine is just '还行' basically being 'somewhat ok'.

Noting that it's been slow, but methodical, and that Ukraine might be losing some ~100s (could be 200, 300 or more) of men directly (death, wounded etc.) and like another ~100 surrendering/getting captured. So like 2-3 days can very well amount to a 'loss' of +~1000 men.

And Russia is not losing anything close to the above (at least the last couple of weeks).
I want to emphasis this. It looks like in this phase 2 of the war the objective is not really to try to take ground, but rather to inflict casualties to the Ukrainian troops in the Donbas AZO while keeping Russian causalities low. We have a propensity to measure progress by looking at which town is taken or how much the front line shifted because colouring in areas on the map is fun and easy to understand, but it doesn't look like that's what phase 2 is about.

You can see progress in that regard with the recent change in law allowing Territorial Defense Forces to deploy outside of their home area. It's a steamroller that's very slowing grinding across the AZO. If we suppose a high number: 100,000 troops inside the AZO before the launch of phase 2, if they are losing up to 1000 men a day they will have none left after 3 month, and they will be combat ineffective long before that.

Only question is how long can Russia's economy and existing military without mobilizing sustain this.
 
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