The War in the Ukraine

4Runner said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

DC shifts to damage control as Ukraine defense fades​

One possible outcome: a Korean-style armistice, with a line between East and West Ukraine but no peace treaty
By

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

JUNE 14, 2022

[My Comments]
This piece essentially agrees with my arguments on this war. If the ending turns out to be what the authors imply, this will become yet another forgotten war. And there will be another split country and the only difference is that this is Europe's turn.

Human beings have brain and memory. But human begins barely remember. Human beings just love playing god and referees at the same time.

"We are winning and they are losing"

Click to expand...

Even The Copium Zone is reporting less on Ukraine, every day was coverage of mostly Ukraine, how awesome the Ukranians are and how backwards the Russians are, interjected with something about China.

Now they are back to covering overbudgeted projects in the US.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Encircling Azot just requires checkpoints on the roads, artillery pre targeted at the entrances and exits.

Unlike Azovstal, which is a steel plant with heavy reinforced concrete structures to protect blast furnaces, many chemical plants are open air or simple brick/sheet metal structures to hold up the tanks and pipelines. They aren't very strong.

Azovstal was also strategically important and had underground bunker. Azot did not historically have such a bunker.

Click to expand...

Azovstal was very far behind the front lines so there wasn't much Ukraine could do. The Azot plant is right next to a garrison in Lisichansk which would put Russian forces into artillery range.

reservior dogs said:

All this talk about chemical leaks etc. I think does not make any sense. If there are chemical leaks, the first to be impacted would be the Ukrainian combatants that are holed up in the plants. Russia just have to clean it up after. Seems like a very cheap trade-off. The 1500 people inside are outgun and under fire control for all their escape paths. The Russians have all the advantages, yet nothing happens for days and days. I think that the Russians, seeing Ukrainian side sending in more and more reinforcement from Lysychansk, decided that this is too much of a good thing to pass up and purposely allow a corridor for the reinforcement to come in. At the end, there are just two outcome waiting for these people, they either get killed or wounded from Russian bombardment, or they surrender. The Russians are going to want as many reinforcement coming in as possible. Maybe they will set up some buffet tables with welcome signs to get more fighters from Lysychansk to come.

Click to expand...

Agreed. Ukrainian stupidity for sheltering in a chemical plant should be punished not rewarded. Evacuate the remaining civilians from the city and start hitting the complex with thermobarics.

If Americans were in the same situation they would have already levelled the complex with daisy cutters.

Abominable said:

Azovstal was very far behind the front lines so there wasn't much Ukraine could do. The Azot plant is right next to a garrison in Lisichansk which would put Russian forces into artillery range.


Agreed. Ukrainian stupidity for sheltering in a chemical plant should be punished not rewarded. Evacuate the remaining civilians from the city and start hitting the complex with thermobarics.

If Americans were in the same situation they would have already levelled the complex with daisy cutters.

Click to expand...

No need for daisy cutters... the Azot plant produce ammonium nitrate... just remember the Beirut explosion and it will be the result of bombing that plant most probably.

Atomicfrog said:

No need for daisy cutters... the Azot plant produce ammonium nitrate... just remember the Beirut explosion and it will be the result of bombing that plant most probably.

Click to expand...

It must be remembered Russian war goals are different than many western countries.

Russians are old school imperialist conquerors like Persians, Romans, Mongols, Turks, Imperial China, Imperial Japan, etc. They will use force to take land, but once they are done with the conquering part, the newly incorporated people are fully Russian with all rights thereof. They are part of a multi ethnic empire.

There's multiple ethnic Ukrainian commanders fighting on the side of Russia in the war, some of which were even KIA.




That means Russia has to consider, at least partially, the sentiment of Ukrainian Russians, the cost of rebuilding, governing the conquered regions, etc.

On the other hand the other country is a settler colonial power. Settler colonialism is distinguished by not merely conquest, but total displacement and destruction of the natives and their replacement by the demographics of the settlers. See Spain in Latin America, UK in Australia, Nazi Germany, etc.

That means preservation of the lives or property of the conquered is unnecessary, nor is any consideration of their public opinion important. It is a much more total way of waging war. That relaxes ROE, but requires greater demographics and makes it difficult to exploit the conquered territory profitably in the short term.

The whole thing about Russians colonizing Ukraine is total projection.

FairAndUnbiased said:

It must be remembered Russian war goals are different than many western countries.

Russians are old school imperialist conquerors like Persians, Romans, Mongols, Turks, Imperial China, Imperial Japan, etc. They will use force to take land, but once they are done with the conquering part, the newly incorporated people are fully Russian with all rights thereof. They are part of a multi ethnic empire.

There's multiple ethnic Ukrainian commanders fighting on the side of Russia in the war, some of which were even KIA.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That means Russia has to consider, at least partially, the sentiment of Ukrainian Russians, the cost of rebuilding, governing the conquered regions, etc.

On the other hand the other country is a settler colonial power. Settler colonialism is distinguished by not merely conquest, but total displacement and destruction of the natives and their replacement by the demographics of the settlers. See Spain in Latin America, UK in Australia, Nazi Germany, etc.

That means preservation of the lives or property of the conquered is unnecessary, nor is any consideration of their public opinion important. It is a much more total way of waging war. That relaxes ROE, but requires greater demographics and makes it difficult to exploit the conquered territory profitably in the short term.

The whole thing about Russians colonizing Ukraine is total projection.

Click to expand...

I was not saying to bomb it... was just saying what could happen if they start to bomb it. Could turn into a total destruction of everything arround. I clearly don't think it's a good idea for civilians and infrastructures sides. It's clearly a risk to be in quite a large area near that industrial plant for the russian army too but also for the ukrainian side on the other bank at this rate.

siegecrossbow said:

supposedly search history on phone captured by Russian soldiers…

View attachment 90502

Click to expand...

@RottenPanzer @siegecrossbow

For Ukrainian troops, a need arises: Javelin customer service​

The Ukrainians had an urgent problem. Their Javelin missile launchers — sophisticated, finicky gear each costing six figures — were inoperable and no one in their unit could fix them.

Click to expand...

Article is very long. So I will only mention the interesting parts.

The others, he said, were thought to be broken until it was discovered that the user instructions had gotten gummed up in Google Translate.

Click to expand...

It requires batteries and argon coolant to operate, and comes with a

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

Click to expand...

258 page manual that was translated with google translate. What could go wrong?

Some of them must be quite displeased reading 258 pages of shitty translations.

Importantly, Hayward said, it appears the Javelins sent to Ukraine do not include instruction cards directing military personnel to call a toll-free number if the weapons malfunction or otherwise require repair. He has opened several cases of them but found no such card, and training cadres across multiple units have told him they were unaware of any Javelin support line, he said.

Click to expand...

Interesting there is a toll-free number to call if your Javelins isn’t working.

Broken launch units are repaired by maintenance staff within his command, Anatoliy said, and their battery and coolant supply is healthy.

Click to expand...

Hayward, a resident of Alaska, has spoken to Murkowski about the limited supply of batteries for the launch units. They only last four hours on a full charge, less once they’re used to fire missiles, so Ukrainians keep them locked away to ensure they’ll work for real launches, he said.

Click to expand...

It appears the dead batteries can be fixed.

Daily Southfront report, this time no Military analysis but only reporting regarding demoralised state of Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian regime finally accepting the current situation

What happened with the stream of bayraktar footage?

I know there are rumours of them being used to strike in russia territory or exclusively for recon, but I'm pretty sure some footage of a rocket hitting a msta would be invaluable right now.

Did russia actually shot down all of them or they can't use them effectively in the east or something

pakje said:

What happened with the stream of bayraktar footage?

I know there are rumours of them being used to strike in russia territory or exclusively for recon, but I'm pretty sure some footage of a rocket hitting a msta would be invaluable right now.

Did russia actually shot down all of them or they can't use them effectively in the east or something

Click to expand...

Bayraktar are just very weak against air defenses. Most of the Bayraktar kills were against Russian convoys early in the war. This was largely a result of Russian incompetence. They had SAMs in their convoys but left the radars off. I think the Russians caught on to their mistakes and began shooting down drones. The 36 Bayraktars Ukraine started with are now all shot down, they’re still probably getting some new ones but Russian logistics are less vulnerable now.

⚡️Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision long-range Kalibr missiles near Zolochev, Lvov region, have destroyed a warehouse of ammunition for foreign weapons transferred to Ukraine by NATO countries, including 155-mm M777 howitzers.

High-precision air-based missiles in Nikolaev region have destroyed aircraft of the Ukrainian air force at Voznesensk military airfield.

A large number of weapons and military equipment from the USA and European countries delivered to the Ukrainian grouping in Donbass have been destroyed near Dobropolye, Pokrovsk railway stations in Donetsk People's Republic and Orlovschina in Dnepropetrovsk region.

The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 1 airspace radar station near Lisichansk in Lugansk People's Republic, 1 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system near Soledar in Donetsk People's Republic, ammunition depots near Gorskoe and Verkhnekamensk in Lugansk People's Republic, and 2 AFU command posts and 1 communications centre near Pereezdnoe and Ivano-Dar'evka in Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical, army and unmanned aviation have hit 24 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 300 nationalists, 1electronic warfare station near Malinovka in Kharkov Region, 10 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 3 Grad multiple rocket launchers, 18 special vehicles, 3 mortars and 11 field artillery mounts, including 4 M777 155-mm howitzers.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian air force near Krasnopol'e in Donetsk People's Republic. Also, 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Donetsk city and Pavlovka in the Donetsk People's Republic, Balakleya, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Chervonyi Shakhter in Kharkov region, and Lisichansk in Lugansk People's Republic.

In addition, 12 shells of Uragan multiple-launch rocket system have been intercepted near Donetsk city and Gorskoe and Vasil'evka in Lugansk People's Republic.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 313 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, 43 command posts and 62 firing positions of AFU artillery units.

In total, 203 Ukrainian airplanes and 131 helicopters, 1,211 unmanned aerial vehicles, 339 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,558 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 524 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,958 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,623 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en