The War in the Ukraine

DC shifts to damage control as Ukraine defense fades​

One possible outcome: a Korean-style armistice, with a line between East and West Ukraine but no peace treaty
By JUNE 14, 2022

[My Comments]
This piece essentially agrees with my arguments on this war. If the ending turns out to be what the authors imply, this will become yet another forgotten war. And there will be another split country and the only difference is that this is Europe's turn.

Human beings have brain and memory. But human begins barely remember. Human beings just love playing god and referees at the same time.

"We are winning and they are losing"

4Runner said:

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DC shifts to damage control as Ukraine defense fades​

One possible outcome: a Korean-style armistice, with a line between East and West Ukraine but no peace treaty
By

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

JUNE 14, 2022

[My Comments]
This piece essentially agrees with my arguments on this war. If the ending turns out to be what the authors imply, this will become yet another forgotten war. And there will be another split country and the only difference is that this is Europe's turn.

Human beings have brain and memory. But human begins barely remember. Human beings just love playing god and referees at the same time.

"We are winning and they are losing"

Click to expand...

I don’t see a Korea style armistice happening when Ukraine repeatedly violates their own deal for several years. They scrapped the deal they made in Istanbul and lie about a huge range of things. Russia doesn’t trust Ukraine is doing anything in goodwill.

Korean armistice came after almost 3 years of bloody near stalemate. It didn’t happen when one side or the other was making significant meaningful gains on the battlefield and aspiring towards making more in the near future.

Russia is making significant gains and clearly aspiring towards making more in the near future. So to hope for a korean war style armistice with the russians might be called a catagorical error.

But the reason why the error is being made is clear. The side that is making it is coping with the fact it is in no position to make any meaningful gains in the near future, so it dearly hope the other side will can be persuaded to forgo their aspirational gains.

Obviously the hope is silly, otherwise they would have a strategy in lieu of hope.

British mercenary and sniper Sean Pinner, sentenced to death, told why you should not go to fight in Ukraine. Interview in English.


Details have appeared about the Russian armored train "Yenisei" created by soldiers of the railway troops of the "Brave" group. The armored train can restore railway tracks, carry out mine clearance, conduct technical reconnaissance and escort military cargo and echelons.


The work of military topographers in Ukraine was shown by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Without these people, the operation of the Iskander missile systems is not possible, since they need accurate coordinates for delivering strikes. The calculation of military topographers moves on a KAMAZ 4350 vehicle with a geodetic complex PNGK-1 installed on it. The car is equipped with an inertial navigation system, as well as a rangefinder-goniometer device that performs the functions of geodetic reference of objects.


The air defense crew of the Russian Osa air defense system 9K33M3 spoke about his combat work in Ukraine. The interview is quite interesting, as their combat service in Ukraine is described simply and in detail. The 9A33BM3 combat vehicle, very old, developed in the eighties, despite this, the air defense system consistently hits the UAVs of the Ukrainian army at a distance of up to 10 km and an altitude of 5000 meters. The Osa air defense system in Iraq was a priority target for US special forces, as it confidently hit Tomahawk cruise missiles.

FriedButter said:

I don’t see a Korea style armistice happening when Ukraine repeatedly violates their own deal for several years. They scrapped the deal they made in Istanbul and lie about a huge range of things. Russia doesn’t trust Ukraine is doing anything in goodwill.

Click to expand...

The end is not up to Ukraine, just like the end of the Korean War was not up to the Koreans.

Richard Santos said:

Korean armistice came after almost 3 years of bloody near stalemate. It didn’t happen when one side or the other was making significant meaningful gains on the battlefield and aspiring towards making more in the near future.

Russia is making significant gains and clearly aspiring towards making more in the near future. So to hope for a korean war style armistice with the russians might be called a catagorical error.

But the reason why the error is being made is clear. The side that is making it is coping with the fact it is in no position to make any meaningful gains in the near future, so it dearly hope the other side will can be persuaded to forgo their aspirational gains.

Obviously the hope is silly, otherwise they would have a strategy in lieu of hope.

Click to expand...

This is war between Russia and NATO. The Ukrainians must be completely defeated. If they are half way defeated, you end up with a country that hates you. if they are completely defeated, they will focus their anger at those who started this war, which is NATO. Russia must fight on until Ukraine is completely defeated. Please note I did not say they must fight on until they occupy all of Ukraine. The Ukrainians will re-direct their anger at NATO only after a long exhausting war where they are completely defeated.

An armistice is only going to happen if Ukrainians can stop the Russians. No sign of that yet so it's as likely as Ukrainians claiming they will retake Crimea.

FairAndUnbiased said:

if this is true, then it explains the low surrender rate of Ukrainian troops. WW2 tactics?

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The reason not many Ukrainians are surrendering right now is because they aren't encircled or Russia isn't advancing fast enough to capture them. If you're disillusioned right now you can just desert or abandon your post and claim you were overrun.

I don't know if Azot plant can be fully encircled or not but if it can they will be the next mass surrender.

Abominable said:

An armistice is only going to happen if Ukrainians can stop the Russians. No sign of that yet so it's as likely as Ukrainians claiming they will retake Crimea.

The reason not many Ukrainians are surrendering right now is because they aren't encircled or Russia isn't advancing fast enough to capture them. If you're disillusioned right now you can just desert or abandon your post and claim you were overrun.

I don't know if Azot plant can be fully encircled or not but if it can they will be the next mass surrender.

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Encircling Azot just requires checkpoints on the roads, artillery pre targeted at the entrances and exits.

Unlike Azovstal, which is a steel plant with heavy reinforced concrete structures to protect blast furnaces, many chemical plants are open air or simple brick/sheet metal structures to hold up the tanks and pipelines. They aren't very strong.

Azovstal was also strategically important and had underground bunker. Azot did not historically have such a bunker.

Abominable said:

An armistice is only going to happen if Ukrainians can stop the Russians. No sign of that yet so it's as likely as Ukrainians claiming they will retake Crimea.

The reason not many Ukrainians are surrendering right now is because they aren't encircled or Russia isn't advancing fast enough to capture them. If you're disillusioned right now you can just desert or abandon your post and claim you were overrun.

I don't know if Azot plant can be fully encircled or not but if it can they will be the next mass surrender.

Click to expand...

All this talk about chemical leaks etc. I think does not make any sense. If there are chemical leaks, the first to be impacted would be the Ukrainian combatants that are holed up in the plants. Russia just have to clean it up after. Seems like a very cheap trade-off. The 1500 people inside are outgun and under fire control for all their escape paths. The Russians have all the advantages, yet nothing happens for days and days. I think that the Russians, seeing Ukrainian side sending in more and more reinforcement from Lysychansk, decided that this is too much of a good thing to pass up and purposely allow a corridor for the reinforcement to come in. At the end, there are just two outcome waiting for these people, they either get killed or wounded from Russian bombardment, or they surrender. The Russians are going to want as many reinforcement coming in as possible. Maybe they will set up some buffet tables with welcome signs to get more fighters from Lysychansk to come.

reservior dogs said:

All this talk about chemical leaks etc. I think does not make any sense. If there are chemical leaks, the first to be impacted would be the Ukrainian combatants that are holed up in the plants. Russia just have to clean it up after. Seems like a very cheap trade-off. The 1500 people inside are outgun and under fire control for all their escape paths. The Russians have all the advantages, yet nothing happens for days and days. I think that the Russians, seeing Ukrainian side sending in more and more reinforcement from Lysychansk, decided that this is too much of a good thing to pass up and purposely allow a corridor for the reinforcement to come in. At the end, there are just two outcome waiting for these people, they either get killed or wounded from Russian bombardment, or they surrender. The Russians are going to want as many reinforcement coming in as possible. Maybe they will set up some buffet tables with welcome signs to get more fighters from Lysychansk to come.

Click to expand...

This is basically the Battle of Verdun, where the Germans lured French into a salient where their artillery can pound them from 3 sides.

The difference is that Russians won't be tossing light infantry into an assault. They'll actually have tanks and airpower that the Germans didn't.