The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
As disgusting as it is, it seems like the Ukrainians are trying to make the Russians do a frontal assault on their positions near Donetsk. If the Russians do end up assaulting the entrenched Ukrainian positions it would be stupid for obvious reasons. I feel that they want to clean up Severodonetsk and attack the Slavyansk - Kramatorsk line before going to the Ukrainian forces near Donetsk.
They can carpet bombing them at least... SEAD for two days, Tu-22 for two days...
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
It would seem that during the heady days when the badly planned Russian offensive floundered badly around Kiev and the US could hardly contain its short sighted gleeful triumphalism, Kiev expected Putin will commit suicide abs final victory will just somehow force its way into Ukraine hands, and did not at all consider how best to use the respite to prepare to mitigate what russia’s next move might be.

A key lesson for all those who are so eager to look down upon an enemy who seems to be floundering: just because they failed badly and you seem to have some track record of success, that does not mean you really suck less than they do, even if those goading you on wants you to believe so. make your preparation as if you suck just as much, it won’t hurt nearly as much as if you discovered how much really you suck after assuming you didn’t suck.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
As disgusting as it is, it seems like the Ukrainians are trying to make the Russians do a frontal assault on their positions near Donetsk. If the Russians do end up assaulting the entrenched Ukrainian positions it would be stupid for obvious reasons. I feel that they want to clean up Severodonetsk and attack the Slavyansk - Kramatorsk line before going to the Ukrainian forces near Donetsk.
Air and missile strikes further neutralizing their supply depots would be an appropriate response.

How are they even resupplying Kramatorsk? The road north from Donetsk is definitely not a route. There's another major road south from Izium. The rest is just small roads.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
A key lesson for all those who are so look down upon an enemy who seems to be floundering: just because they failed badly and you seem to have some track record of success, that does not mean you really suck less than they do, even if those goading on wants you to believe so. make your preparation as if you suck just as much, it won’t hurt as much as if you discovered how much you suck after assuming you didn’t suck.

Only problem is that Russia initial course of action did work to a degree. Everyone seems to forgot that there were results from the negotations in Istanbul until BJ Johnson called up Zelensky to rip it up and withdraw all concessions.
 

foxmulder

Junior Member
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I wonder if this is going to force Russia hand to do something.

Quite the coincidence that all these OSINTbros goes on vacation and not even a day later we hear news of Ukraine shelling children and civilians. Such odd timing.

Maybe finally use its airforce's full "perceived" potential???

I am shocked by the inability of RuAF establishing supremacy.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
The last time CNN or FoxNews invited a military officer to give a sitrep on Ukraine was 10 days ago. Usually there was one every 2-3 days before June. Why the change?

I now have to contend with these Sky News updates:

Establishment media is shifting towards Jan 6 because that’s what they intend to campaign on for the mid terms.

They want people more focused on Jan 6 rather than Ukraine at the moment. Jan 6 committee or hearing has been live-streaming for a while now
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Maybe they are successful, I don't know. The main problems with switchblades seems to be range and the numbers provided. A frontline soldier operating a switchblade isn't doing something else. With a longer range you could assign that role to someone behind frontlines.

Before the war started I didn't think any drones would be able to survive modern ECW, let alone NATO. Turns out that isn't true and both Russia and Ukraine have been able to operate even commercial drones that can be jammed by equipment made available to police forces around the world.
pl20039833-military_standard_drone_jamming_device_8_bands_with_low_battery_alarm.jpg

They are bulky and whoever has to carry one probably won't be able to carry a rifle as well. It would suck if you were the designated anti drone person carrying that and got into a firefight.

Make a drone too big and it just becomes a slow moving target for SAMs and MANPADs as we've seen with TB-2s and Orions. Small enough and there isn't a cost effective way to counter them right now.

Commercial drones won’t be able to survive military grade EW.

The issues are more to do with range, power requirements and availability of dedicated EW units, as well as the fact both sides are making extensive use of civilian drones, and neither side wants to loose their own commercial drone capabilities as collateral damage to heave EW use.

This is where true swarm drones with AI hive mind tech will come into their own. Because with those capabilities, drones can continue to operate effectively even with heavy EW use making conventional direct command guidance commercial drones inoperable.

As I have said before, rather than view drones as some magical silver bullet that can win the war for you by themselves. Instead I think the best way to use drones is to thoroughly integrate them into the existing manned force structure to form a multilayered whole that’s stronger than the sum of its parts.

As such, top tier drone use will see them working well with manned aircraft to make it easier and safer for manned aircraft to do their thing while the drones soak up the damage and hunts down small footprint enemy threats. But this is getting a little off top. Let’s just say that both Ukraine and Russia have shown themselves to be some way off yet from being able to even approach top tier drone use.
 
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