The War in the Ukraine

NATO missiles directly attacked Russian territory in an official way, crossing a red line in front of everyone.

If Russia does nothing but complain again, the natural next step will be for Germany to send Taurus and the US to send Tomahawks.

Not even Trump will have arguments against the neocons if Russia does not respond to any provocation and loses weapons warehouses and later factories without any consequences for the US. It means the US could actually disarm Russia without suffering any casualties, then they can continue the war and help Ukraine indefinitely.

It's a clear trick against Trump. Failing to help Ukraine would be like Biden leaving Afghanistan. So they force Trump to fight Putin directly.

More than a thousand soldiers have deserted from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division fighting in Ukraine



More than a thousand soldiers of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division have refused to fight in Ukraine and escaped from the army, "Important Stories" has learned. The journalists have in their possession a letter from the division's command to the authorities of Russian regions asking for help in tracking down the evaders. The text contains a roll-call list of deserters and AWOLs, including two conscripts, 150 mobilized and 858 contract soldiers, including 26 junior officers, one major and two lieutenant colonels. In total, 1,010 persons.

quim said:

NATO missiles directly attacked Russian territory in an official way, crossing a red line in front of everyone.

If Russia does nothing but complain again, the natural next step will be for Germany to send Taurus and the US to send Tomahawks.

Not even Trump will have arguments against the neocons if Russia does not respond to any provocation and loses weapons warehouses and later factories without any consequences for the US. It means the US could actually disarm Russia without suffering any casualties, then they can continue the war and help Ukraine indefinitely.

It's a clear trick against Trump. Failing to help Ukraine would be like Biden leaving Afghanistan. So they force Trump to fight Putin directly.

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How many cruise missiles have Russia fired into Ukraine? Is Ukraine disarmed? Tomahawks don’t grow on trees and the US already faces running out of ammo extremely quickly in any war against China. How many Tomahawks do you think that can afford to send to Ukraine to attack Russia without blowing up their own war plans against China?

NATO long range weapons use against Russia is largely theatrical, as is Russia’s threatened response.

But Putin has plenty of options and levers to pull for escalation without resorting to nukes if he really was worried.

So the key to judging how much actual impact such symbolic moves have is how much (or little) Russia reacts. If Russia response disproportionately, then they are actually bothered. If all they do is pay the thing lip service, well then it’s not really changing their game plan so it’s not all that important.

Soldier30 said:

Russian Su-34, Su-24M and Su-25SM aircraft began using OFZAB-500 high-explosive incendiary aviation bombs with UMPK modules in Ukraine. Some media reported on the OFZAB-1500 bomb, but they are not made in Russia and are not listed in catalogs. The OFZAB-500 aerial bomb was developed by the Bazalt State Research and Production Enterprise and was adopted by Russia in 2001. Due to the combined effects of fragmentation, high explosive and thermal fields, the bomb is particularly effective and affects everything within a radius of 290 meters, the temperature at the epicenter of the explosion is about 900 degrees. The bomb weighs 500 kg, is made of cast iron and has an incendiary mixture weighing 250 kg and 37.5 kg of explosives. The Russian OFZAB-500 aerial bomb is dropped at an altitude of 900 to 12,000 meters at an aircraft speed of 550 to 1,850 km/h. When equipped with a UMPK, the flight range of the OFZAB-500 bomb is about 60 km.

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If true this is another Russian "gamechanger". If they managed to use it with the UMPK in the Su-24M and Su-25SM this means they likely changed SVP-24 Gefest to be able to operate with UMPK bombs. That vastly increases the amount of platforms of the Russians which can use these bombs where previously they were constrained to the Su-34.

Russia have like a hundred Su-24M aircraft with SVP-24 Gefest alone.

Notably the SVP-24 Gefest is also used in some upgraded Tu-22M3 and Tu-95SM aircraft. This could mean we could start seeing those aircraft being used as UMPK carriers soon. The Tu-22M3 could for example carry a lot more FAB-1500 with UMPK (it can carry eight regular FAB-1500) than the Su-34 which can only carry a single one in the central hardpoint. These would also be much cheaper than the Kh-32 missiles which is what they are being used for right now.

The type of explosive used in OFZAB-500 is also likely lethal against infantry, light armored vehicles, and personnel in trenches. Should have a major impact on the battlefield in Ukraine.

plawolf said:

How many cruise missiles have Russia fired into Ukraine? Is Ukraine disarmed? Tomahawks don’t grow on trees and the US already faces running out of ammo extremely quickly in any war against China. How many Tomahawks do you think that can afford to send to Ukraine to attack Russia without blowing up their own war plans against China?

NATO long range weapons use against Russia is largely theatrical, as is Russia’s threatened response.

But Putin has plenty of options and levers to pull for escalation without resorting to nukes if he really was worried.

So the key to judging how much actual impact such symbolic moves have is how much (or little) Russia reacts. If Russia response disproportionately, then they are actually bothered. If all they do is pay the thing lip service, well then it’s not really changing their game plan so it’s not all that important.

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The only reason Ukraine is not disarmed is because NATO continues to send weapons and supplies without any constraints.

If Russia does not respond to these direct attacks, its deterrence force will weaken and Russian factories and weapons depots are at serious risk of being destroyed or seriously reduced as well.

Iskanders and Kalibrs also do not grow on trees.

To balance the situation, China would need to be willing to rearm Russia directly.

With Ukraine's desperation and NATO's permission, direct long-range attacks against Russia will only continue and get bolder until they are stopped.

But that is a matter for Russia to resolve. Putin is responsible for what he does or doesn't do. Whether there will be a victory or defeat, time will tell.

British intelligence reveals over 700,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine plus the destruction of 3,558 tanks, 147 helicopters, 132 fixed-wing aircraft, more than 8,500 armoured vehicles, 1,750 artillery systems, and 26 warships.

The same British intelligence also "revealed" Saddam had WMD...

tabu said:

British intelligence reveals over 700,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine plus the destruction of 3,558 tanks, 147 helicopters, 132 fixed-wing aircraft, more than 8,500 armoured vehicles, 1,750 artillery systems, and 26 warships.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858861950890922033

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In every war these particular countries have been in, they have always reported that they destroyed over 100% of the enemies... Strange how that seldom translates to gains on the battlefield.

tabu said:

More than a thousand soldiers have deserted from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division fighting in Ukraine



More than a thousand soldiers of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division have refused to fight in Ukraine and escaped from the army, "Important Stories" has learned. The journalists have in their possession a letter from the division's command to the authorities of Russian regions asking for help in tracking down the evaders. The text contains a roll-call list of deserters and AWOLs, including two conscripts, 150 mobilized and 858 contract soldiers, including 26 junior officers, one major and two lieutenant colonels. In total, 1,010 persons.

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That is very a unbelievable story because how big it is. It's pretty much almost a regiment gone. Also the Moscow Times isn't even from Russia but from the Netherlands.