The War in the Ukraine

All good points TK3600. Which is why Putin has hardened his recent position compared to the 2022 negotiations in Turkey where he was much more flexible. He has categorically ruled out a NATO membership. Moreover, people in his orbit have even begun to rule out EU membership (something they didn't before).

So what we are seeing is a hardening of the Russian position. It should be added that I am not sure if the West even wants a weakened Ukraine in NATO anyway. Nor should we assume that Ukraine would get an easy entrance into the EU, given the political winds of nationalism in Europe who are deeply skeptical towards Project Ukraine.

This is why I have a bleak outlook for Ukraine. I would not rule out another mass wave of refugees if it gets a "harsh peace", inducing a self-defeating spiral. It could ultimately end up a small country located in the western part of current-day Ukraine that would look a lot like today's Belarus in a few decades time.

First attack

RedBaron said:

Because his successor will have to deal with the fallout, not him.

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Biden is doing to Trump, what Trump did to him with Afghanistan.

Ukrainian T-72 tank gets Krasnopoled by the 238th Artillery Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.


Russian cluster munitions strike Ukrainian positions in Novopavlivka.


The Ukrainian Klesheevka-Andreevka bridgehead over the Kanal is gone.


What's left of the Kremenchug hydroelectric power plant.


Russians advance in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and South Donetsk.


Russian MoD confirms the capture of Novoselidovka in the Pokrovsk direction.


Ukrainians fired the first ATACMs missiles into the Byransk region, target said to be GRAU facility ---

"Tonight at 03:25 the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a facility in the Bryansk region with six ATACMS ballistic missiles - MoD
↓As a result of the anti-missile battle, crews of the S-400 air defense system and the «Pantsir» air defense system shot down 5 ATACMS missiles, one was damaged.
↓Fragments of a damaged ATACMS missile launched by the Ukrainian Armed Forces fell on the technical territory of a military facility in the Bryansk region, a fire broke out, there were no casualties or destruction.
↓At the same time, footage of a powerful explosion in the Bryansk region appeared on the Internet earlier.
"


The neck at the Kurakhovo cauldron is down to 5.5 km.


Russians approach the Avangard Stadium in the center of Chasiv Yar.


Three Iskander strike on the positions of the AFU 82nd Brigade in Yunakovka, Sumy region.


Russians added concrete shelters on the Halino airfield in the Kursk region.


British monster drone. T-150 drone by Malloy Aeronautics captured by the Russians. This drone can range up to 70km and drop three 82mm mortar shells.


BMP-3 with mine trawls.


Ukrainian howitzer taken out by Lancet in the Kursk region.


Iskander strike on the deployment position of the AFU 47th Brigade in the Sumy region. Allegedly 70 killed, 9 armored vehicles and 10 vehicles destroyed.


Russian artillery followed by MLRS strike on a gathered Ukrainian concentration in a forest in the Kursk region. The Russians waited until there was enough Ukrainian concentration before firing.


Tornado-S units.

TK3600 said:

If ceasefire is agreed Ukraine gets more supply to heal up, Russia gets to die more. One sided deal if you ask me.

Ultimately the conflict comes down to a single dillemma: Russia needs Ukraine to stay out of NATO, yet cannot rely on negotiation to achieve the goal. Because all previous agreements were broken.

This limit Russia to two options:

1. Total regime change in Ukraine and enforce its neutrality by force.

2. Cripple Ukraine beyond usefulness to NATO even if it does join.

Giving Ukraine time to repair goes against Russian goal.

So any time someone ask about ceasefire, the above needs to be repeated.

Ukraine has the manpower and stockpile to last til mid 2025, Russia can last indefinitely at current pace.

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The only way a negotiated peace happens is when neither side have the hard power or political will to seize total victory by force of arms.

All talk of a negotiated peace in Ukraine is nothing but delusional wishful thinking when Russia is winning faster and harder with each passing day on the battlefield, and when the collective west is having ever growing buyers’ remorse on their involved in Ukraine. This is especially true when Russia has already been conned before with the Minsk accord, which even the west now openly admit was nothing but a delaying tactic needed for them to arm up Ukraine and make the current conflict as hard as it is for Russia. The Russians will have to be total morons to fall for the literal same trick twice.

I personally think Russia has taken some diplomacy hinds from their friends in the East and are merely paying the bare minimum amount of lip service they need about the possibility of negotiating as a way to help them appear more reasonable to keep the global south on side and also to help distract and divide the western so they don’t go all in on even more support for Ukraine as they would if Russia openly said they won’t quite until they are at NATO’s actual land boarders.

I personally think Putin is playing for all the marbles in Ukraine, and will not settle for any half victories or a partitioning of Ukraine. This is because he has both the military might and political will to take all of Ukraine by force, and also because even a casual look at modern world history can show you that such partitioning is just a bad deal and is very likely to cause you a lot more problems in the future.

TK3600 said:

If ceasefire is agreed Ukraine gets more supply to heal up, Russia gets to die more. One sided deal if you ask me.

Ultimately the conflict comes down to a single dillemma: Russia needs Ukraine to stay out of NATO, yet cannot rely on negotiation to achieve the goal. Because all previous agreements were broken.

This limit Russia to two options:

1. Total regime change in Ukraine and enforce its neutrality by force.

2. Cripple Ukraine beyond usefulness to NATO even if it does join.

Giving Ukraine time to repair goes against Russian goal.

So any time someone ask about ceasefire, the above needs to be repeated.

Ukraine has the manpower and stockpile to last til mid 2025, Russia can last indefinitely at current pace.

Click to expand...

Much depends on the position of Trump, who has promised to end the war in 24 hours. If Putin does not agree to a ceasefire, then Berlin, under US pressure, will authorise the use of Taurus. And other steps8 may follow, as Trump may take Putin's unwillingness to stop the war personally.

Increasing arms production in Ukraine and co-operation with partners will grow.... The Technological Bet will be created. According to the president, next year Ukraine will produce at least 30 thousand long-range drones. The task to make three thousand cruise missiles and drone missiles has also been set.

I already said. If Ukraine wants the war to end, they will have to do like Finland did in WW2.
1) disarm from all heavy weapons including long range weapons. their army will be reduced to a police force.
2) accept territorial concessions. more than the current line of contact.
3) accept permanent neutrality. not this "we'll think it over in 20 years" shit.
4) accept Russian troops stationed close to their capital for an extended period of time to ensure 1,2,3 are fullfilled.

The alternative is to be the next Southern Lebanon. A dumping ground for testing Russian weapons in perpetuity.
Russia will prevent them from joining NATO as an effective member by never stopping the state of war.
Ukraine will be neutralized one way or the other.

Already I see people in Russia talk about how the wars of the Russian Empire with the Turks lasted centuries, and that more of the same with NATO would be nothing major. To a lot of people this is the new normal.

Whatever Ukraine produces Russia will produce more of it. And whichever range their weapons have, the Russian weapons will have more range. Whichever explosives they use the Russians can use more. You get the idea. The Russians can amp this up all the way if they want to.

For the Russians an armed Ukraine close to their border is an existential problem. For the US the situation of Ukraine is not existential. The amount each side is willing to concede to push their point is vastly different.

gelgoog said:

I already said. If Ukraine wants the war to end, they will have to do like Finland did in WW2.
1) disarm from all heavy weapons including long range weapons. their army will be reduced to a police force.
2) accept territorial concessions. more than the current line of contact.
3) accept permanent neutrality. not this "we'll think it over in 20 years" shit.
4) accept Russian troops stationed close to their capital for an extended period of time to ensure 1,2,3 are fullfilled.

The alternative is to be the next Southern Lebanon. A dumping ground for testing Russian weapons in perpetuity.
Russia will prevent them from joining NATO as an effective member by never stopping the state of war.
Ukraine will be neutralized one way or the other.

Already I see people in Russia talk about how the wars of the Russian Empire with the Turks lasted centuries, and that more of the same with NATO would be nothing major. To a lot of people this is the new normal.

Whatever Ukraine produces Russia will produce more of it. And whichever range their weapons have, the Russian weapons will have more range. Whichever explosives they use the Russians can use more. You get the idea. The Russians can amp this up all the way if they want to.

For the Russians an armed Ukraine close to their border is an existential problem. For the US the situation of Ukraine is not existential. The amount each side is willing to concede to push their point is vastly different.

Click to expand...

To be honest, I don't think going the way of Finland is even enough. As we can see, over the years it didn't take much for Finland to switch stances and a party of war, judging by how they seem to be allowing the firing of drones into Russia.

At this point a rump state with no ability to mount a credible threat seems to be more apropiate in the long term. Specially how perfidous is the west when it comes to any treaty once it doesn't suit them.

An episode of a Ukrainian FPV drone pursuing a Russian UAZ Patriot. The drone was pursuing the Russian vehicle, but then the operator decided to change the target and returned to a group of soldiers, where it was shot down with small arms fire.

Russian Su-34, Su-24M and Su-25SM aircraft began using OFZAB-500 high-explosive incendiary aviation bombs with UMPK modules in Ukraine. Some media reported on the OFZAB-1500 bomb, but they are not made in Russia and are not listed in catalogs. The OFZAB-500 aerial bomb was developed by the Bazalt State Research and Production Enterprise and was adopted by Russia in 2001. Due to the combined effects of fragmentation, high explosive and thermal fields, the bomb is particularly effective and affects everything within a radius of 290 meters, the temperature at the epicenter of the explosion is about 900 degrees. The bomb weighs 500 kg, is made of cast iron and has an incendiary mixture weighing 250 kg and 37.5 kg of explosives. The Russian OFZAB-500 aerial bomb is dropped at an altitude of 900 to 12,000 meters at an aircraft speed of 550 to 1,850 km/h. When equipped with a UMPK, the flight range of the OFZAB-500 bomb is about 60 km.