The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog said:

The F-16 they already received got busted on the ground... having cold feet to send more to the junkyard is common sense.

Click to expand...

They announced some 100 F-16 for Ukraine - what people seem not to understand is that while this number of airframes is limited compared to the total NATO possess, it is still the first major sustained air campaign of NATO since Vietnam. That's no trivial undertaking and would hardly be cancelled by a single lost frame being sent as a token gesture.

Problem is Israels air campaign, with associated NATO operations is even bigger; it's easy to see how a couple of hundred airframes being used in a high intensity combat campaign can equal the demands of many thousand frames mostly being used for low intensity training and with underlying logistics only really purposed for short term military operations. Already in April there was reports of Israeli pilots logging 1000 hours - that's easily 10 times higher than training intensity and combat operations will have a much greater logistical demands on top of that.

Sinnavuuty said:

In such circumstances, it would be difficult for such a decision to have been made without the approval of President-elect Trump. Strategic decisions in the US are traditionally bipartisan. And this would be a strategic decision. Even with Trump's son's denial in a post on X. This may have been agreed upon at the meeting between Trump and Biden at the White House, and could be a measure to pressure Putin to the negotiating table.

Click to expand...

Since it's a small number of rather weak weapons, and Russia keeps attacking ammo depots meaning many of them probably won't even make it to the front, I'd guess the "hook" which Trump and Biden agreed on is more likely that Trump gets to call out Ukraine later for "look at Biden, he let Ukraine do anything they want with our weapons and Ukraine still failed".

In that sense, Trump will increase his reputation on the Ukraine question, and ofc having his hanger ons like his son go around complaining before hand sets his twist up quite well.

RedBaron said:

Because his successor will have to deal with the fallout, not him.

Click to expand...

Because of Trump ran on the platform of anti war, the current administration probably wants to lock in Trumps options to ensure the war continuing until the last Ukrainian

Missile arrival on the Kremenchug hydroelectric power plant from two different point of views.


Wreckage of 3M22 Zircon found in Kyiv.


Lancet hits an M142 HIMARS launcher in Zaporozhye.


Russian reconnaissance discovers a Ukrainian base camp and artillery delivers soon after.


Missed Patriot missiles fell on Odessa residential areas killing eight Ukrainian policemen. Ukraine claims they shot down an Iskander and the missile falls on residential areas. However photos indicate Patriot sections.



Russian MoD confirms the capture of Novoalekseevka.


Russians have advanced sharply to the center of Chasiv Yar, according to Bild's Jihadi Julian.


Russians closing the clamps on Kurakhovo, cutting off main supply routes.


Tor-M2 shoots down a Leleka UAV.


Uragan MLRS working on Ukrainian positions in South Donetsk.


FAB-1500 arrives on Ukrainian ammunition depot in Kalynove.


FABs fall on Zarichne.


Ukrainian tank taken out by a Lancet attack.


Russian UAV targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle as artillery strikes.

An episode of combat involving a Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA IFV, made in the United States. The video was filmed in the Pokrovsk direction, north of the village of Novogrodovka. The M2A2 Bradley IFV runs over a mine and begins firing circularly from a 25-mm M242 Bushmaster cannon. After which, having engaged reverse, the IFV runs over a mine again, after which part of the crew leaves the combat vehicle.

Footage of a Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-51" striking a Ukrainian MLRS M142 HIMARS, made in the USA. The video was filmed near the settlement of Novosoloshino in the Zaporizhia region. The column, accompanied by two vehicles, was moving in an unknown direction, several drones were tracking the column. Despite the fact that the drone "Lancet" was aimed at the head of the HIMARS MLRS, the missiles did not detonate, since the MLRS was empty. The original video is cut off, the extent of the damage is unclear, in any case, the MLRS needs to be sent for repairs.

Index said:

Since it's a small number of rather weak weapons, and Russia keeps attacking ammo depots meaning many of them probably won't even make it to the front, I'd guess the "hook" which Trump and Biden agreed on is more likely that Trump gets to call out Ukraine later for "look at Biden, he let Ukraine do anything they want with our weapons and Ukraine still failed".

In that sense, Trump will increase his reputation on the Ukraine question, and ofc having his hanger ons like his son go around complaining before hand sets his twist up quite well.

Click to expand...

The small number of rather weak weapons still push the narrative for a 300km+ buffer zone into Ukraine. Will it trigger wilder Russian offensive than the crawling in rubble that we see ? Redeployment of even more SAM system is necessary at the minimum.

Kursk nuclear powerplant are in range and other city and bases, but most where in range from Ukrainian systems too like 130 km Vilkha-M or even Tochka-U if they launch it near the border. Clearly not sure how to quantify ATACM danger.

It's more the political side of things with the US in the chain of target designation that cause problems and not the capabilities involved.

Ukrainian BMP-2 remains that look like it was blown up badly. This might have been transporting ammunition in the Pokrovsk direction.


Roschel Senator that ran into mines and a previously destroyed BTR-4E in the Nelepovka area.


Strikes arrive in the city of Zaporozhye. Lights out.


MLRS falls upon Ukrainian positions in the Chernihiv region.


Russian forces driving through Petrovka, putting the southern flank of Pokrovsk at risk.


"The Thirty" destroys a Ukrainian mortar site after a drone discovers the site and determined it's target coordinates. The D-30 howitzer is affectionately nicknamed as the "Thirty".


Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian ammo depot in Sumy.


This explodes differently. OFZAB-500 on Ukrainian positions in Kupyansk. This appears to be a mixture of incendiary and high explosive.


Two kills in one. Two Ukrainian buggies taken out by a single Vandal fiberoptic drone.


Nikolskoye, Kherson region. A power substation is taken out by a LMUR strike.


More fragments of PAC-3 in Odessa.


LMUR arrives on a building used by the AFU in Kherson.


Russian special forces conducted an ATGM strike on a Ukrainian UAV control point.


The Russian flag is raised over Novoalekseevka.

If a ceasefire is now agreed on the current battle lines, it will give Ukraine and Russia a breathing space. Ukraine needs a change in political leadership, the removal of Zelensky and a change in the top staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The ceasefire will give Russia and the West a chance to build up arms stockpiles again and establish a balance of fear that will be a deterrent. If the West manages to turn Ukraine into a 2nd South Korea and Russia is further pressured by sanctions that will finally start to be valid, Ukraine and the West will win in the medium term. Russia will have an implacable enemy at its door, which will open up the factories of Rheimetall and other military concerns and become major arms manufacturers. The issue of Crimea and other Russian-occupied territories will remain open.

tabu said:

If a ceasefire is now agreed on the current battle lines, it will give Ukraine and Russia a breathing space. Ukraine needs a change in political leadership, the removal of Zelensky and a change in the top staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The ceasefire will give Russia and the West a chance to build up arms stockpiles again and establish a balance of fear that will be a deterrent. If the West manages to turn Ukraine into a 2nd South Korea and Russia is further pressured by sanctions that will finally start to be valid, Ukraine and the West will win in the medium term. Russia will have an implacable enemy at its door, which will open up the factories of Rheimetall and other military concerns and become major arms manufacturers. The issue of Crimea and other Russian-occupied territories will remain open.

Click to expand...

If ceasefire is agreed Ukraine gets more supply to heal up, Russia gets to die more. One sided deal if you ask me.

Ultimately the conflict comes down to a single dillemma: Russia needs Ukraine to stay out of NATO, yet cannot rely on negotiation to achieve the goal. Because all previous agreements were broken.

This limit Russia to two options:

1. Total regime change in Ukraine and enforce its neutrality by force.

2. Cripple Ukraine beyond usefulness to NATO even if it does join.

Giving Ukraine time to repair goes against Russian goal.

So any time someone ask about ceasefire, the above needs to be repeated.

Ukraine has the manpower and stockpile to last til mid 2025, Russia can last indefinitely at current pace.