The War in the Ukraine

tabu

Junior Member
Registered Member
5th warning due to posting pure political propaganda and claims often without proof and still no change in behaviour! Reconsider, why are you here.
political propaganda!
 
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Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
Putin was stupid to threaten nuclear war over such a small "red line". You should never write bigger cheques with your mouth than you can actually cash in. What is he going to do now? Tactically nuke Ramstein? It was a dumb ultimatum which was going to collapse at some point anyway.

The logical choice would be to arm the West's enemies in the MENA region, but Putin should have said so in the beginning instead of hyping some nonsense about nuclear weapons. And that's likely all that Russia will do in response to this (very minor) move by the West. Nothing much will fundamentally change, which is why Putin's hysterical rhetoric was a self-own.

A nation should have very few redlines which you are absolutely ready to back up if someone crosses them. A good example would be China's threat to encircle/invade Taiwan if Taipei were to announce independence. Everyone understands that China is serious. Putin by contrast clowned himself by pretending WW3 was going to break out over Ukraine hitting an ammo depot in Bryansk region. He not only looks weak to the West but also to his own domestic audience. Hopes he learn from this stupid mistake. Redlines should be few and realistic.
His domestic audience doesn't really care what exact words he uses, as long as the war and economy goes well.

Putin's nuclear threats are only rhetoric for his suppliers. Its just trying to argue for more funding, arms and industry support by feigning outrage at NATO then dangling the prospect of "guys if they threaten us too much we will have to use nukes so you better give us even more stuff to ensure it never happens!".

In the end Putin is also serving a similar role as Zelensky, he's just more fiscally responsible and runs a much more in shape country.
 

B777LR

Junior Member
Registered Member
You say the Russian Su-24 has been flinging the UMPK, but all the videos I saw thus far used the Su-34 to do this.

I'm not going to go back through several hundred pages of this thread, but it has been posted here as well. The Su-24s go out with the same loadout of 4x UPMKs as the Su-34s mostly do.

A simple software update doesn't sound likely. Although I don't know how Russian aircraft work, software updates tend to be way faster and would see the entire fleet updated in very short time, days or at most weeks. That hasn't been the case.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
When the message doesn’t make sense to you, then you are not the intended recipient.
The messages don't make sense because everyone knows Putin isn't going to go nuclear over an ammo depot in Bryansk being blown up by a long-range missile. Everyone knew this including Putin. So why did he make his dumb threat? He was bluffing. And NATO called his bluff.

So my suggestion is simple: don't bluff on going nuclear when you can't back up what you say. It was an L by Putin and I'm tired of seeing people coping trying to pretend otherwise.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Shostkinsky State Plant in Shostka, Sumy region, hit by a Russian strike. The plant produces ammunition, explosives, and components for ammunition like igniters and detonation cables. The plant is the only one of it's kind in Ukraine. The strike was done by Geran drones.

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Battles in the city center of Kurakhovo.

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Destruction of a YPR-765 in Kurakhovo by the 238th Brigade. First it got struck by FPV drones then finished off with a Krasnopol.

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Olgovskaya cauldron is closed and done, sealing the fate of Ukrainian forces within it. Kursk region.

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Tsar Mangal withstood a hail of attacks but completed it's mission.

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Russians broke through to the city center of Toretsk.

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The 114th Brigade raises it flag at Novoilinka next to Ilinka, north of Kurakhovo.

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X-38ML takes out Ukrainian pontoon bridge near Raihorodrok.

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Field camp of the AFU 14th Brigade in Kupyansk hit by Tornado MLRS. Didn't say if it's the -G or -S.

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Iskander with cluster warhead arrives on the deployment positions of the AFU 27th Brigade in Yunakovka, Sumy region. At least 11 armored vehicles, 10 vehicles and 120 personnel allegedly killed or destroyed.

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More Iskander strikes in Yunakovka, Sumy region. This attack allegedly killed more than 50 personnel, 12 armored vehicles and 6 vehicles.

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Artillery vs. UAV. Russian MSTA-B takes out a house used by Ukrainian drone operators.

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Ukrainian MSTA-B and M777 taken out by Lancets.

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T-80BVM takes out Ukrainian stronghold and field ammo depot.

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Ukrainian tank hit by a Lancet in the Kursk reason.

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Northeastern outskirts of Kupyansk under Russian artillery and MLRS fire.

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The messages don't make sense because everyone knows Putin isn't going to go nuclear over an ammo depot in Bryansk being blown up by a long-range missile. Everyone knew this including Putin. So why did he make his dumb threat? He was bluffing. And NATO called his bluff.

So my suggestion is simple: don't bluff on going nuclear when you can't back up what you say. It was an L by Putin and I'm tired of seeing people coping trying to pretend otherwise.
It is written in their nuclear doctrine. The Russians reserve the right for nuclear retaliation in case a conventional attack threatens the survival of the state.

Something like the attack on Bryansk would not qualify as that. But I doubt they would take conventional attacks on their own territory lightly. Especially if they were aimed at strategic resources. There will be some kind of pushback and Russia has plenty of non-nuclear options to do it.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm not going to go back through several hundred pages of this thread, but it has been posted here as well. The Su-24s go out with the same loadout of 4x UPMKs as the Su-34s mostly do.

A simple software update doesn't sound likely. Although I don't know how Russian aircraft work, software updates tend to be way faster and would see the entire fleet updated in very short time, days or at most weeks. That hasn't been the case.
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Pic of a FAB-500 M-62 bomb equipped with the UMPK glide kit on a Su-24M frontline bomber. To my knowledge, this is the first visual confirmation of the UMPK being used on this aircraft. So far it’s been mainly Su-34/35.
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Pic of a Russian Su-24M carrying a UMPK-equipped FAB-500 M-62 bomb.
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At approximately 1015Z, a Russian BSF Naval Aviation Su-24M dropped two UMPK (glide kit) FAB-500 bombs on
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"Snake" Island. The Russians reported they believe the island is being used to provide logistical support for amphibious assaults on the Crimean mainland.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
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British intelligence reveals over 700,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine plus the destruction of 3,558 tanks, 147 helicopters, 132 fixed-wing aircraft, more than 8,500 armoured vehicles, 1,750 artillery systems, and 26 warships.

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TASS: Ukrainian Armed Forces losses since the start of the Northern Military District exceeded 900,000 servicemen killed and wounded

The number of losses in 2024 exceeded Kiev's total losses in the first two years of the special operation, the agency's calculations show.
 

RottenPanzer

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TASS: Ukrainian Armed Forces losses since the start of the Northern Military District exceeded 900,000 servicemen killed and wounded

The number of losses in 2024 exceeded Kiev's total losses in the first two years of the special operation, the agency's calculations show.
Considering the amount of casualties which have been suffered by both sides, which had reached almost a million. I wonder whether Russia and Ukraine could recover from such losses, especially with their dropping fertility rates throughout the years.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
In such circumstances, it would be difficult for such a decision to have been made without the approval of President-elect Trump. Strategic decisions in the US are traditionally bipartisan. And this would be a strategic decision. Even with Trump's son's denial in a post on X. This may have been agreed upon at the meeting between Trump and Biden at the White House, and could be a measure to pressure Putin to the negotiating table.

If it is indeed confirmed, it could be part of Trump's strategy to try to force the start of negotiations. Personally, I think he failed to coordinate with the Russians. They are unlikely to accept this kind of pressure unless these attacks lead to internal upheaval such that a power shift occurs in Russia. The problem is that before that point is reached, nuclear weapons will be on Russia's list of priorities.
As some suspected, Trump's silence says a lot about the veracity of such facts.

Some other matters:
Western embassies in Kiev closing and asking their citizens to stay safe
CIA warning of possible widespread Russian attack in next 48 hours
Accumulation of Russian bombers in regions close to Ukraine
Ukrainian companies releasing workers from service as a safety measure
Russia claims Storm Shadow strike has already taken place on Kursk
 
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