Guys … but are not all other explanations like pilot error, friendly fire or technical malfunction are much more likely than this - IMO more wishful think than based on facts or reports - theory, a Su-57 or MiG-31 killed it?
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Guys … but are not all other explanations like pilot error, friendly fire or technical malfunction are much more likely than this - IMO more wishful think than based on facts or reports - theory, a Su-57 or MiG-31 killed it?
Destroyed Slovenian M80A in the Artemovsk area.
Danish given Leopard 1A5 gets taken out by Lancet in the Kharkhiv region.
Russians captured Galitsynovka. 114th Brigade raised it's flag. Again.
A PVD and ammo depot of the AFU 80th Airborne Brigade gets hit by a missile strike at Chernetchina near Sumy. Allegedly more than 30 killed.
Russians liberated Kirovo, satellite village of Toretsk.
Russian reserves in the Pokrovsk direction exceeded that in Bakhmut.
Allegedly another M270 spotted and tracked to this forest region and greeted with an Iskander.
"Rocket strikes OTRK "Iskander-M" at the location, presumably, of the launcher MLRS M270 in the forest near the village Cages right near the border of the Sumy and Kursk regions. Video: @The_Wrong_Side
Coordinates: 51.103336, 35.158645
In the footage you can see the movement of characteristic "square" tracked vehicles into shelter along with an escort vehicle, which is also typical for the actions of the M270 MLRS (and HIMARS).
After which the first Iskander flies into the forest with an air explosion, noticeably missing, and then the second missile with a high-explosive fragmentation warhead, which already hits exactly where the hidden equipment is parked."
AFU weapons depot in Nizhny Syrovatka hit by Iskander-M. Burning of stored artillery ammunition followed.
4th Tank Division planted it's flag in Stelmakhovka between Kupyansk and Liman under the Group West (Zapad Z symbol) responsibility.
Russia has created a unique wartime economy that can sustain the war for another five to six years.
Biden admin rejects plan to send Americans to repair and maintain Ukrainian F-16s.
Tornado-S at work in the Kursk region.
Agriculture remote mining MLRS belonging to Group Center.
Ukrainian BMP-2 and BRM-1K destroyed in Zaporozhye by the 136th MR Brigade.
Ukrainian T-72 moving towards Suja intercepted by a Lancet.
Ukrainian BMP-2 taken out in the area of responsibility of the 6th Army.
AFU hanger in Vodayne taken out by FAB.
AFU 72nd Brigade pulled from the South Donetsk front after losing its capabilities (>20%).
Many casualties from the 72nd happened in the bombing of the Yuzhnodonbasskaya no. 3 mine, according to intercepted radio communication.
Ukrainian UAV production workshop in Sumy gets taken out by FAB.
Ukrainian T-64BV explodes in Selidovo.
"Guys … but are not all other explanations like pilot error, friendly fire or technical malfunction are much more likely than this - IMO more wishful think than based on facts or reports - theory, a Su-57 or MiG-31 killed it?"
Most likely if you choose to follow Occam's Razor, the F-16 was hit by Iskander on the ground, killing it's pilot. The missiles can also be a Kinzhal or the new Iskander-1000.
Danish given Leopard 1A5 gets taken out by Lancet in the Kharkhiv region.
Russians captured Galitsynovka. 114th Brigade raised it's flag. Again.
A PVD and ammo depot of the AFU 80th Airborne Brigade gets hit by a missile strike at Chernetchina near Sumy. Allegedly more than 30 killed.
Russians liberated Kirovo, satellite village of Toretsk.
Russian reserves in the Pokrovsk direction exceeded that in Bakhmut.
Allegedly another M270 spotted and tracked to this forest region and greeted with an Iskander.
"Rocket strikes OTRK "Iskander-M" at the location, presumably, of the launcher MLRS M270 in the forest near the village Cages right near the border of the Sumy and Kursk regions. Video: @The_Wrong_Side
Coordinates: 51.103336, 35.158645
In the footage you can see the movement of characteristic "square" tracked vehicles into shelter along with an escort vehicle, which is also typical for the actions of the M270 MLRS (and HIMARS).
After which the first Iskander flies into the forest with an air explosion, noticeably missing, and then the second missile with a high-explosive fragmentation warhead, which already hits exactly where the hidden equipment is parked."
AFU weapons depot in Nizhny Syrovatka hit by Iskander-M. Burning of stored artillery ammunition followed.
4th Tank Division planted it's flag in Stelmakhovka between Kupyansk and Liman under the Group West (Zapad Z symbol) responsibility.
Russia has created a unique wartime economy that can sustain the war for another five to six years.
Biden admin rejects plan to send Americans to repair and maintain Ukrainian F-16s.
Tornado-S at work in the Kursk region.
Agriculture remote mining MLRS belonging to Group Center.
Ukrainian BMP-2 and BRM-1K destroyed in Zaporozhye by the 136th MR Brigade.
Ukrainian T-72 moving towards Suja intercepted by a Lancet.
Ukrainian BMP-2 taken out in the area of responsibility of the 6th Army.
AFU hanger in Vodayne taken out by FAB.
AFU 72nd Brigade pulled from the South Donetsk front after losing its capabilities (>20%).
Many casualties from the 72nd happened in the bombing of the Yuzhnodonbasskaya no. 3 mine, according to intercepted radio communication.
Ukrainian UAV production workshop in Sumy gets taken out by FAB.
Ukrainian T-64BV explodes in Selidovo.
"Guys … but are not all other explanations like pilot error, friendly fire or technical malfunction are much more likely than this - IMO more wishful think than based on facts or reports - theory, a Su-57 or MiG-31 killed it?"
Most likely if you choose to follow Occam's Razor, the F-16 was hit by Iskander on the ground, killing it's pilot. The missiles can also be a Kinzhal or the new Iskander-1000.
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If it was an air to air kill, there would likely be dashcam footage of the lock and launch.
I don't see what is the wishful thinking behind this though. We know what is likely to happen when a stealthy plane launches a missile from outside retaliation range at a 4th gen with no real bells or whistles to defend itself against an attack like that.
A ground missile attack against a hangar that would have made the aircraft kill unidentifiable to the Russians or aerial friendly fire seems more likely.
Everyone brought their own possibilites, while i brought one and gave my opinion, that it seems likely due to how the reports and narratives conflicted and changes, from the americans and from the ukrainians, in sequential order, and due to the fact two incidents with F-16 were reported. I'm by no means trying to hijack the explanatory role to myself.
I feel the shot down scenario is unlikely at least for now.. saw people posting vids on supposed friendly fire
The supposed F-16 deploying countermeasures
The footage was geolocated at :
50.4386107, 25.8112621
Which kinda far from the front, in order for the MiG or Su's to pick the fighter, it will have to fly in Belarus airspace.
The supposed F-16 deploying countermeasures
The footage was geolocated at :
50.4386107, 25.8112621
Which kinda far from the front, in order for the MiG or Su's to pick the fighter, it will have to fly in Belarus airspace.
I think it is fair to say that we will never find out what happened to this F-16 without solid video or SAT image proof. The news outlets have done a fantastic job aggressively pushing conflicting narratives in order to confuse the public.
The Western side started with accidental crash, and ended with our fantastic air defences shooting down our fantastic fighter jets by accident
.
The Russian side started with the F-16 being shot down on an airfield during the big missile strike, then ended with the F-16 being shot down by a BVR missile hit.
This is all we are going to get for the time being.
The Western side started with accidental crash, and ended with our fantastic air defences shooting down our fantastic fighter jets by accident
.
The Russian side started with the F-16 being shot down on an airfield during the big missile strike, then ended with the F-16 being shot down by a BVR missile hit.
This is all we are going to get for the time being.
Spanish/Latino mercenary caught by Russia, first accused of being a Hindu Indian
FAB-3000 arrives in a forested area where Ukrainians park and hide their vehicles, somewhere in the Kursk region.
BM-21 Grad gets catastrophically taken out by artillery, possibly a Krasnopol. From the targeting reticle, I suspect a new drone, possibly the ZALA Granat 4 drone, that can do the lasing for the shell. The MLRS was taken out along a field ammo depot that created a second explosion. Svatovo Kremenaya front.
Toretsk burning as the battle moves into its location.
VT-40 FPV from the Sudoplatov takes out a French 155mm self propelled howitzer CAESAR. How the SPH got so close to the front line to put it in range of FPV drones is beyond me, but I suspect the Ukrainians have their front lines too poorly drawn out, deploying units to areas where they thought they are safe or in control, when in reality they are not. The Russians quickly swept through these areas.
Huge Ukrainian column of about 20 vehicles in Syrovatka in the Sumy region gets hit by two Iskanders, one with cluster, the other with air detonation. Then comes Tornado-S with cluster munitions.
Belarus continues to send equipment to it's border with Ukraine with the B sign.
This is in Taiwan and apparently might not have anything to do with the Ukraine conflict. Except that its about the high fail probability of the TOW-2 missiles the US sent to the island which also reflects what they sent to Ukraine. About seven missiles hit their targets out of seventeen fired during an exercise.
Ukrainian transport with personnel gets ambushed in the Kursk region and a Marder 1A3 taken out and potentially captured.
Ukrainian D-30 howitzer destroyed with Lancet by units of the 1st Tank Army.
Another LMUR strike.
Humvee taken out in the Kursk region via drones.
Ukrainian PVD taken out in Krasnoliman.
Krab SPG taken out by Lancet in Chasiv Yar by the 98th VDV.
A Ukrainian factory plant used for the repair and maintenance of vehicles in the front gets utterly destroyed in Mirnograd.
FAB arrival in the Kharkhiv region.
Ukrainian positions hiding in a forest belt in the Kursk region subjected to artillery fire.
Also in Kursk region, a Humvee was intercepted by an FPV drone.
Ukrainian MLRS fired at the city of Shebekino in the Belgorod region, then gets Krasnopoled for its trouble.
Russian Grad fires st Ukrainian troop concentrations near Rabotino.
Ukrainian troop concentration gets shelled with drone target assistance in Zaporozhye. Things starting to heat up again there.
BM-21 Grad gets catastrophically taken out by artillery, possibly a Krasnopol. From the targeting reticle, I suspect a new drone, possibly the ZALA Granat 4 drone, that can do the lasing for the shell. The MLRS was taken out along a field ammo depot that created a second explosion. Svatovo Kremenaya front.
Toretsk burning as the battle moves into its location.
VT-40 FPV from the Sudoplatov takes out a French 155mm self propelled howitzer CAESAR. How the SPH got so close to the front line to put it in range of FPV drones is beyond me, but I suspect the Ukrainians have their front lines too poorly drawn out, deploying units to areas where they thought they are safe or in control, when in reality they are not. The Russians quickly swept through these areas.
Huge Ukrainian column of about 20 vehicles in Syrovatka in the Sumy region gets hit by two Iskanders, one with cluster, the other with air detonation. Then comes Tornado-S with cluster munitions.
Belarus continues to send equipment to it's border with Ukraine with the B sign.
This is in Taiwan and apparently might not have anything to do with the Ukraine conflict. Except that its about the high fail probability of the TOW-2 missiles the US sent to the island which also reflects what they sent to Ukraine. About seven missiles hit their targets out of seventeen fired during an exercise.
Ukrainian transport with personnel gets ambushed in the Kursk region and a Marder 1A3 taken out and potentially captured.
Ukrainian D-30 howitzer destroyed with Lancet by units of the 1st Tank Army.
Another LMUR strike.
Humvee taken out in the Kursk region via drones.
Ukrainian PVD taken out in Krasnoliman.
Krab SPG taken out by Lancet in Chasiv Yar by the 98th VDV.
A Ukrainian factory plant used for the repair and maintenance of vehicles in the front gets utterly destroyed in Mirnograd.
FAB arrival in the Kharkhiv region.
Ukrainian positions hiding in a forest belt in the Kursk region subjected to artillery fire.
Also in Kursk region, a Humvee was intercepted by an FPV drone.
Ukrainian MLRS fired at the city of Shebekino in the Belgorod region, then gets Krasnopoled for its trouble.
Russian Grad fires st Ukrainian troop concentrations near Rabotino.
Ukrainian troop concentration gets shelled with drone target assistance in Zaporozhye. Things starting to heat up again there.
Strikes on a AFU cluster in the Sumy region, presumably heading to Kursk.
The reaction time of Iskander and Tornado has been brought down to rapid levels, especially since the beginning of this year. Improvement in ISR availability and/or simply more efficient organization?