I'm probably wrong, but I think Russia doesn't really care about "comfortable" diplomacy with the US, especially after the Kremlin declared them an "enemy" and promised to arm any organisation that opposes them. If they can do that, then shooting down a few drones won't really matter much, or is at least considered a worthy tradeoff if it allows them to reduces their AD losses that have been happening recently. What do the more knowledgable members here think ?
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I see their AD loss is more into Ukraine found out about their scheduling tho. Not necessarily all from NATO intel. Also they have been showing S-400 for a while, but Russian AD is not just S-400. Proper AD would consist of Fighter elements supported by EW, then the SAM's. Suppression of one element are not necessarily collapse the whole network.
The SAM element itself is further divided from short, medium and long. Russians have multiple of these, and Ukraine doesnt seem able to really handle them all let alone handle Russian fighters. Like how many air-to air victory for Ukrainian so far ? Or their success in preventing Russians from decimating more of their infrastructure.
Also this from Arestovich.
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Orlan-30 lasing a Leopard 2A4 at the Kurakhovskoe direction. Then a Krasnopol fired from a MSTA-B hits and destroys it. From the 238th. The Leopard may have been previously immobilized by an FPV drone or by a remote mine. The crew was observed and reported not to have left the tank in a vain effort to restart it.
Ukrainian UAV crew gets tracked, and artillery arrives at their location.
Ukrainian BMP gets Krasnopoled with the help of an Orlan-30 from the Center group of forces.
Ukrainians rebuilt one of the crossings near Kupyansk but here comes an X-38ML missile to take it down again. The persistent if not desperate efforts to restore these bridges underlines the importance of them to the Ukrainians.
Ukrainians are now also using FPV drones to intercept Russian UAVs.
Ukrainian grenade launcher site gets taken out with an artillery or mortar strike.
Carl Gustav M4 grenade launcher from SAAB captured by the Russians with two boxes of ammunition.
The AFU faves another problem, an epidemic of Typhoid fever, sweeping it's ranks. This is going to happen in contaminated trenches, especially if they are infested with rats.
ODAB-1500 working.
Deployment point of the AFU 102nd Brigade gets hit. Looks like a "three pointer" which points to a cluster of artillery shells arriving simultaneously. This in Gulyaypol.
Ukrainian cargo ship Verbana sank by the Houthis.
Ukrainians published a footage of GBU-39 bombs hitting the Volchansk citadel, which is proof that the Russians have now captured the area. This is the beginning of the end for the battle of that section of the city.
Olkha MLRS of the AFU gets hit by a Lancet or similar drone.
Russians captured a stronghold in Krasnogorovka. Ukrainians surrendered, preventing unnecessary bloodshed.
Lancet footage has reached 1900.
Krab SPG gets taken out by a Lancet in a place called Stinky.
Krasnopol takes out a Ukrainian ammo depot in Buhaivka.
Ukrainian UAV crew gets struck in Volchansk.
Cat watches over Ka-52 like he owns it.
Ukrainian UAV crew gets tracked, and artillery arrives at their location.
Ukrainian BMP gets Krasnopoled with the help of an Orlan-30 from the Center group of forces.
Ukrainians rebuilt one of the crossings near Kupyansk but here comes an X-38ML missile to take it down again. The persistent if not desperate efforts to restore these bridges underlines the importance of them to the Ukrainians.
Ukrainians are now also using FPV drones to intercept Russian UAVs.
Ukrainian grenade launcher site gets taken out with an artillery or mortar strike.
Carl Gustav M4 grenade launcher from SAAB captured by the Russians with two boxes of ammunition.
The AFU faves another problem, an epidemic of Typhoid fever, sweeping it's ranks. This is going to happen in contaminated trenches, especially if they are infested with rats.
ODAB-1500 working.
Deployment point of the AFU 102nd Brigade gets hit. Looks like a "three pointer" which points to a cluster of artillery shells arriving simultaneously. This in Gulyaypol.
Ukrainian cargo ship Verbana sank by the Houthis.
Ukrainians published a footage of GBU-39 bombs hitting the Volchansk citadel, which is proof that the Russians have now captured the area. This is the beginning of the end for the battle of that section of the city.
Olkha MLRS of the AFU gets hit by a Lancet or similar drone.
Russians captured a stronghold in Krasnogorovka. Ukrainians surrendered, preventing unnecessary bloodshed.
Lancet footage has reached 1900.
Krab SPG gets taken out by a Lancet in a place called Stinky.
Krasnopol takes out a Ukrainian ammo depot in Buhaivka.
Ukrainian UAV crew gets struck in Volchansk.
Cat watches over Ka-52 like he owns it.
Their AD loss is almost certainly a result of them having pushed up into riskier positions to cover new fronts and to shield their new types of operations. Russia started often striking the rear guards and barracks at a pace it hasn't done since the start of the conflict.
Russia went from almost zero AD loss to maybe almost 10 launchers, this coincided completely with the new front being started.
US drones were flying before that and Ukraine used the same mix of weapons. There is a cost benefit analysis to shooting US assets whether it really helps a lot in achieving battlefield objectives. As observers, we cannot know how useful those drones actually are.
Besides, if they're useful, it's only at aiding offensive strike ops in the Crimea region. Where Russia is really not feeling pressure at all. Russia's main fight remains on the strategy to run Ukraine out of conscripts, and it's hard to see how US drones contribute towards making that mission more difficult, because the issue is more the sheer weight of bodies distributed into trenches Ukraine can put out.
Ukrainian Gvozdika SPG and deployment points getting Krasnopoled.
105mm M119 howitzer gets knocked out by the 238th Brigade. Running out of 155mm systems to use 105mm?
Ukrainian D-20 howitzer gets knocked out by the 238th towards the Pobjeda area.
Two FABs and two ODABs hit a Ukrainian position in a forest line.
Ukrainian BTR-80 knocked out and burning.
A Ukrainian deployment point for airborne assault forces gets Krasnopoled with the aid of the Siberian Association. An Orlan-30 doing the lasing.
Two FABs arrive in a forest plantation where Ukrainian troops are located.
FABs arrive at Ukrainian hangers containing vehicles and equipment. Later, satellites report fires at the same area.
FPV drone managed to intercept a Ukrainian GAZ-66 truck. Operators express their joy on the hit.
FAB or UMPB attacks on Ukrainian deployment points.
Another Strela-10 takes out a Ukrainian UAV.
M777 gets knocked out by Lancet in Kherson.
Northern front. A Ukrainian communication and EW tower gets hit by an FPV drone. The EW isn't working against the drone.
More bombing on Velikaya Novoselka using an X-38ML missile. The strike is against a deployment point of Ukrainian airborne forces. An Orlan-30 lased the target.
A Ukrainian assembly area gets identified by Russian special forces and the shelter gets shelled.
The price of ammunition for the AFU has risen three to five times in two years. A Grad rocket used to cost $900 but is now $6000.
Knocked out Ukrainian equipment on a road near the canal in Chasiv Yar.
A large Ukrainian shelter set on this sturdy building, was identified by Russian special forces and hit by an ODAB-1500.
Not shown due to human casualties. Footage from the Aida unit of the Chechen Akhmat special forces doing sniper work in Volchansk. Aida unit has many ex-Wagner members. This shows this unit is deployed in this area.
105mm M119 howitzer gets knocked out by the 238th Brigade. Running out of 155mm systems to use 105mm?
Ukrainian D-20 howitzer gets knocked out by the 238th towards the Pobjeda area.
Two FABs and two ODABs hit a Ukrainian position in a forest line.
Ukrainian BTR-80 knocked out and burning.
A Ukrainian deployment point for airborne assault forces gets Krasnopoled with the aid of the Siberian Association. An Orlan-30 doing the lasing.
Two FABs arrive in a forest plantation where Ukrainian troops are located.
FABs arrive at Ukrainian hangers containing vehicles and equipment. Later, satellites report fires at the same area.
FPV drone managed to intercept a Ukrainian GAZ-66 truck. Operators express their joy on the hit.
FAB or UMPB attacks on Ukrainian deployment points.
Another Strela-10 takes out a Ukrainian UAV.
M777 gets knocked out by Lancet in Kherson.
Northern front. A Ukrainian communication and EW tower gets hit by an FPV drone. The EW isn't working against the drone.
More bombing on Velikaya Novoselka using an X-38ML missile. The strike is against a deployment point of Ukrainian airborne forces. An Orlan-30 lased the target.
A Ukrainian assembly area gets identified by Russian special forces and the shelter gets shelled.
The price of ammunition for the AFU has risen three to five times in two years. A Grad rocket used to cost $900 but is now $6000.
Knocked out Ukrainian equipment on a road near the canal in Chasiv Yar.
A large Ukrainian shelter set on this sturdy building, was identified by Russian special forces and hit by an ODAB-1500.
Not shown due to human casualties. Footage from the Aida unit of the Chechen Akhmat special forces doing sniper work in Volchansk. Aida unit has many ex-Wagner members. This shows this unit is deployed in this area.
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Ukraine airstrikes near Russian border
So pro-Russian groups in here tend to dismiss the coming Ukraine F-16's with retorts of Russian IADS will deter them and the more popular retort of Russian fighters armed with R-37M's will keep F-16's far away from frontlines yet we see here JDAM airstrikes likely from SU-27's or Mig-29's hitting targets pretty much at the Russian border. Yes I understand the s300/400 deployed in Belgorod was taken out but the Russians on paper do have a huge air force with very long range air to air missiles yet somehow outdated soviet era Ukraine fighters managed to get in JDAM range of Russian border. As US/Ukraine takes out Russian IADS especially in Crimea and other occupied territories Ukraine F-16's are going to have much success delivering their JDAM ordinance and other standoff-ish weapons.
So pro-Russian groups in here tend to dismiss the coming Ukraine F-16's with retorts of Russian IADS will deter them and the more popular retort of Russian fighters armed with R-37M's will keep F-16's far away from frontlines yet we see here JDAM airstrikes likely from SU-27's or Mig-29's hitting targets pretty much at the Russian border. Yes I understand the s300/400 deployed in Belgorod was taken out but the Russians on paper do have a huge air force with very long range air to air missiles yet somehow outdated soviet era Ukraine fighters managed to get in JDAM range of Russian border. As US/Ukraine takes out Russian IADS especially in Crimea and other occupied territories Ukraine F-16's are going to have much success delivering their JDAM ordinance and other standoff-ish weapons.
Yes, he usually expresses himself with clarity and sincerity, in fact years ago he expressed very well the point of view of Kiev: joining NATO as a prize after a big war with Russia
(the cruelty of London and Washington with the Ukrainian pawns is mind-boggling).
I'm pro-Russian, but I'll admit: I worry about the ATACMS, Storm Shadows, and HiMARs every night before I go to bed. I would never underestimate the West. nor dismiss the F-16s.