So this brings me back to me previous question. Why is ATACMS having success against these Russian surface to air missile sites? Did these sites just not have enough interceptors on hand to target the incoming ATACMS barrage? Is ATACMS more effective than previously thought in this role?
Let's highlight here first that the maximum depth of Ukrainian artillery was 90 km with the M-30 and M-31 guided rockets of the MLRS/HIMARS systems. To avoid being exposed, the launchers must be about 30 km from the front line, which gives only 60 km of capacity to attack in depth.
With ATACMS this range will be multiplied by 4.4 times, reaching a depth of 270 km. As a result, long-range SAM systems will either have to move away or be destroyed, because they are clearly high-value targets. The difference is that the ATACMS has the ability to reach Mach 4 and this greatly reduces the probability of the SAM intercepting.
As there are no long-range SAM batteries, air superiority is established on the Ukrainian side and the implementation of CAS becomes possible. Better if it is done by the F-16.
Docked ships would be easy prey. But there is a version of the ATACMS with a 230 kg unitary warhead that can act in 3 ways: penetration (delay fuze), explosion at ground level (contact fuze) and explosion in the air (proximity fuze).
If it is against air defenses, the ideal would be to program the missile to explode in the air, launching shrapnel over a very wide area, which appears to be what is happening.
If it is against ships, you can opt for a contact or penetration explosion.
If it is a bunker or a building, the penetration blast is better.
In theory, such Russian SAMs are capable of shooting down. The S-400 system and the S-300V are said to be capable of intercepting missiles with speeds of the order of 3 km/s. ATACMS peaks at 1.3 km/s. But we know that intercepting ballistic and semi-ballistic missiles is not an exact science.
As we are seeing the performance of ATACMS vs Russian SAMs, regardless of any loss claims, ATACMS is doing very well. Systems like the S-400 and S-300V were made exactly to intercept missiles like the ATACMS.
Russian SAMs were performing reasonably well against M-30/31, HIMARS rockets are much easier to intercept than ATACMS. Their speed does not exceed Mach 2 and they are ballistic (even guided rockets have little maneuverability, only in the terminal phase and enough to refine aim), while the ATACMS is semi-ballistic (aero-ballistic), with some maneuverability in the different phases of the trajectory and speed of Mach 4. Basically the HIMARS rockets would have to be intercepted by systems like Pantsir which is more appropriate for the C-RAM function. But what also ended up affecting the performance of the M-30/31 was degradation of accuracy through EW.