The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russian FPV drones intercepting Baba Yagas.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Russians taking most of Paraskoviivka. Correction and update: all of it.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Not MT-72. Lancet takes out a German Biber bridge laying machine. Ukrainians trying to desperately connect back to northern Volchansk to some degree of success. However bridge laying machines are being destroyed.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

LMUR sent right through the window of a house used as a base by Ukrainian troops.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Compilation of footage. In one footage, a FAB hits a Ukrainian ammo depot in Kupyansk.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

FABs arrive in Ukrainian military sites in Novotiahinka.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

FABs arrive in Ukrainian positions in Niu York.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

M-46 130mm cannon spotted being used in the Northern front. This is based on a naval gun used with destroyers. Not a howitzer, the gun is incapable of elevation higher than 45 degrees. Yet it has insane range, up to 27km for non assisted ammunition, and 40km for assisted.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Artillery men of the 238th Brigade targeting and hitting bases and houses used by Ukrainian drone operators in Kurakhovsky, using Krasnopols, MSTA-B howitzers and M-46 guns.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Ukrainian mobilization eating away at the Ukrainian military industrial complex, losing employees to the front.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Su-34 drop glide FABs at the Avdeyevka front.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Kalashnikov ZALA demonstrates Granat-4 UAV. The UAV has recently gone into mass production. The UAV is capable of laser targeting for Krasnopols, Kitolovs, Grans, Smelchaks, and likely X-38ML missiles.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

BMP-3 in action.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

FPV drones of the 58th SPN attack a Ukrainian communication tower.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The Russian grill industry is booming.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The first time the Russians took out this bridge, it was with an X-38ML missile. Mission accomplished. Then the Ukrainians rebuilt it. Then the Russians sent a handful of FABs or UMPBs to finish it off.

 
Last edited:

Tootensky

Junior Member
Registered Member
All out nuclear attack is bad for obvious reasons (fallout, starting potential nuclear ww3), but at this point, the use of just a few low yield nukes over tactical positions would not have any repercussions, neither globally or in Russia itself.

Not saying Russia would be anywhere close to using them now, but there's no sign of credible pushback if they did. Ukraine doesn't have treaty allies and no nukes of its own.
Imo the biggest issue with Russian nukes isn't that they would use them out of military necessity (Russia holds the initiative at the front and the power disparity doesn't seem to be changing in Ukrainian favor) or revanchism, but rather they would be forced to use them to maintain nuclear deterrence. This is purely because of the slow boil NATO is conducting - more and more systems and military presence getting pushed into Ukraine with no actual response from Russia. Lately NATO is getting more and more brazen, and Russia might just be forced to push the button on a couple of nukes to prove that they are willing to use them. If you have a nuclear arsenal that you are not willing to use, regardless of how much the enemy is mocking you and acting against you, then you might as well have no nuclear deterrent at all...

That being said, I think there is a big stepping stone before that, in the form of resuming full-blown atmospheric testing. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Russia had an SSBN launch a full payload at Novaya Zyemlya to prove to everyone "We've got nukes, they work, back off". Bonus points that the EU would have a freakin stroke with so much material getting put into the atmosphere.
 

Santamaria

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nuclear attack is more likely now than it was two years ago. How is this not disturbing?

Do you have any sources to support this argument?
Latest news are that:

Russia in 2024 is producing 3 million or 4.5 million shells per year, so basically from 250k to 375k a month
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


US in 2025 will produce (and it is specifically said that the number is not currently reached)
1.2 million per year, or 100k a month. And this is in combination with the European countries
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


In addition to this there are the South Korean claims that Russia has received from 1 million to 3 million shells from North Korea.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

JJD1803

New Member
Registered Member
Ukraine has already moved a lot of troops to the Kharkiv sector and now the Russian advance is bogged down in positional fighting. Among the Ukr units are the NATO-trained & equipped brigades that were burnt out and likely fully or partially rebuilt.

Zelensky on 5/29/24 claimed that the Russians will launch another local offensive in the Sumy front to tie down Ukrainian ground units.

This coincides with the Ukraine-NATO propaganda operation to get US approval to strike targets inside Russia with missiles.

This makes it unclear whether or not the Russians will activate the Sumy region.
Russia has turned Volchansk into a fire bag for the AFU. Ukraine has accumulated a lot of manpower the north likely preparing for a counterattack but Russia has unleashed a fiery barrages from their FABs and artillery. Russia is likely going to open other front to stretch the AFU’s already beleaguered position. I do think Kharkov is the main target and the goal is the Oskil River,Kupyansk and then Izyium. Collapsing the Kupyansk front will have a massive effect on the Donbas front.
 

Cult Icon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Latest news are that:

Russia in 2024 is producing 3 million or 4.5 million shells per year, so basically from 250k to 375k a month
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


US in 2025 will produce (and it is specifically said that the number is not currently reached) 1.2 million per year, or 100k a month. And this is in combination with the European countries
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


In addition to this there are the South Korean claims that Russia has received from 1 million to 3 million shells from North Korea.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Overall it's claimed by Western sources & Ukraine that Russia has hugely superior ammunition production.

It could be that the Russians are saving up for the second invasion of Ukraine. However for about 1 1/2 years we haven't been seeing it being used yet.

We've haven't seen Soviet artillery doctrine 'annihilation by hectare' since the offensives in Donbass in 2022, where the Russians blew up every village/town/city they encountered with heavy resistance. I recall that Ukraine claimed Ukrainian cities with around 1 million pop base with 50% of the buildings blown up. This includes Mariupol, Izyum, etc. This was when footage/images of mass urban destruction and moonscapes were common.

Ukraine was screaming that the Russians were firing up to 50,000 heavy rounds a day (1.5 million a month).

Afterwards the Russians fired a lot less, and the next major urban area they blew up was Bahkmut & environs, (pop base around 80K) but it took them much of 1 yr to do so.

Currently we don't see that level of Urban destruction anymore, even though Russia is currently fighting for multiple towns/cities. Why not blow them up now than continue with daily small attacks?

It does beg to question if the Russians really built that much ammo, or it is Western-Ukrainian propaganda to galvanize their MIC?
 

Santamaria

Junior Member
Registered Member
Overall it's claimed by Western sources & Ukraine that Russia has hugely superior ammunition production.

It could be that the Russians are saving up for the second invasion of Ukraine. However for about 1 1/2 years we haven't been seeing it being used yet.

We've haven't seen Soviet artillery doctrine 'annihilation by hectare' since the offensives in Donbass in 2022, where the Russians blew up every village/town/city they encountered with heavy resistance. I recall that Ukraine claimed Ukrainian cities with around 1 million pop base with 50% of the buildings blown up. This includes Mariupol, Izyum, etc. This was when footage/images of mass urban destruction and moonscapes were common.

Ukraine was screaming that the Russians were firing up to 50,000 heavy rounds a day (1.5 million a month).

Afterwards the Russians fired a lot less, and the next major urban area they blew up was Bahkmut & environs, (pop base around 80K) but it took them much of 1 yr to do so.

Currently we don't see that level of Urban destruction anymore, even though Russia is currently fighting for multiple towns/cities. Why not blow them up now than continue with daily small attacks?
As you point, in the biggest offensives they were using 1.5 million a month, that is a crazy number that would require Russia to produce 3 or 4 times their current production to sustain it during a full year.

It is totally compatible that they manufacture more than the West as the news point while at the same time they don't have enough for a Mariupol style across all the front.
It does beg to question if the Russians really built that much ammo, or it is Western-Ukrainian propaganda to galvanize their MIC?
I do not think so, it is not working and anyway the West does not need news to increase shells production, simply to allocate money.
Since money it is not a problem, and they spent with ease I assume is simply impossible to manufacture more with the current infrastructure, workers and so on.
New facilities should be built and new workers trained.
Also the west faces the issue that shells are manufactured by private companies like Rheinmetall that increase prices when the demand grows.
 

Santamaria

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, this is certainly a spin to the manpower issue

"Ukrainian field commanders' decisions to train newly-deployed personnel on the front before committing them to combat indicates that the overall quality of Ukrainian forces will likely remain higher than that of Russian forces in the near- to mid-term."

This is just one more example of the absolute disgrace that the Western analysis and information space has become
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Latest news are that:

Russia in 2024 is producing 3 million or 4.5 million shells per year, so basically from 250k to 375k a month
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


US in 2025 will produce (and it is specifically said that the number is not currently reached) 1.2 million per year, or 100k a month. And this is in combination with the European countries
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


In addition to this there are the South Korean claims that Russia has received from 1 million to 3 million shells from North Korea.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
These numbers provided to open data I already had this information. What is interesting is the statement that according to him, some sources indicate that the Russians produce or were producing 7 million shells per year.

What is the basis to support this?

Furthermore, do we know what the shell production rates are for all of Europe (NATO)?
8 - Russia is stronger than before 2022. All economical data ( PMI, to GDP growth, real wages..) are very positive. All data of military production shows it increasing several times. They have launched dozens of military satellite to reduce their gaps in ISR
1.JPG
2.JPG
3.JPG
Source:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Top