The War in the Ukraine

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member
Registered Member
What Western military industrial production? At least the part that's not outsourced to China or require some Chinese component or refined metal?

Just look at fighter aircraft, helicopters, naval vessels and whatever else is needed for military purposes.

Just because China is a manufacturing giant, doesn't mean industrial production doesn't happen in the West. If you look at trade in value added for manufacturing the US, Germany, Italy, France and Great Britain are like 20% of world total.

This also doesn't mean I am disagreeing with with the fact that some aspects of Western military industrial production have atrophied. There is no denying that, or that Russia might be outproducing the West in some areas of military production.

I just feel like the discussion is becoming kind of silly and disconnected from the complex reality of the situation.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Wasn't there a story published here that claims the Russians are trying to buy these same munitions?

The law of demand and supply.

Here:
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This is kind of insane if you think about it. If they are looking outside of the West for munitions and certainly Soviet calibres, they are probably peeking into some really dark holes which is why the quality is bad.

These are places like Sudan, Egypt... We have already seen Pakistan. Not to say these countries are inferior, but they are probably just rushing to meet demand to get paid, have to take advantage of chances when given.

Even crazier, many of these countries' manufacturing had some Chinese assistance (and maybe still do).
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Wasn't there a story published here that claims the Russians are trying to buy these same munitions?

I honestly doubt it and sounds more like a cope out for their own delay and inability to get the promised rounds on time. Whatever shortage Russia's own industry can't cover, its probably being picked up by both North Korea and Iran, and according to some images, China. The Czech doesn't have the "luxury" of being able to trade with the first 2 for obvious reasons.

And outside of Bulgaria, the manufacturing of soviet caliber rounds is pretty limited if not outright non-existant in Europe. Which leaves them with India, Pakistan and other oddballs which will of course fleece the Europeans, just like they end up buying Russian oil anyway through India with a corresponding price hike.

And end up with the previously mentioned issues of Pakistani ammo destroying Ukranian guns because while sharing the soviet caliber, they use higher pressure that chinese guns tolerate.

Just because China is a manufacturing giant, doesn't mean industrial production doesn't happen in the West. If you look at trade in value added for manufacturing the US, Germany, Italy, France and Great Britain are like 20% of world total.
Thing is, a lot of the raw materials or microcomponents within the process of manufacturing done in the west still come from China or suppliers with deep ties to China, and cant be easily replaced by non-chinese alternatives which I think it is the point Tam was trying to make.

Any increase in industrial output in the West requires involvement by China at some point in the chain.
This also doesn't mean I am disagreeing with with the fact that some aspects of Western military industrial production have atrophied.
Does it make a difference if those aspects that haven't atrophied don't really have the output to make things in quantity and fast enough to make a difference in a shooting war anyway?. Or if its not meeting the specs and expected performances until Block somethingorother in 2050?.

Then there is the issue of maintenance facilities for the stuff already built and on the line which is another beast altogether and in even worse shape, capacity wise.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just look at fighter aircraft, helicopters, naval vessels and whatever else is needed for military purposes.

Just because China is a manufacturing giant, doesn't mean industrial production doesn't happen in the West. If you look at trade in
value added for manufacturing the US, Germany, Italy, France and Great Britain are like 20% of world total.

This also doesn't mean I am disagreeing with with the fact that some aspects of Western military industrial production have atrophied. There is no denying that, or that Russia might be outproducing the West in some areas of military production.

I just feel like the discussion is becoming kind of silly and disconnected from the complex reality of the situation.

US shipbuilding is only 1/200th in terms of capacity compared to China.

As for the rest, we need to review as to how far they have atrophied---and continue to atrophy year by year. A good example is making 155mm shells. Like we have seen in this war how low they are actually is. Another is the rate Patriot missiles is being made.

Got to question what kind of manufacturing is left in Europe other than cars, and to what degree how much of these is reliant to Chinese components and commodities (rare earths, batteries, and so on).
 

generalmeng

New Member
Registered Member
The more you repeat it, you don't make it true... Russia is what it is, a country at war that tries to disguise its numbers and sells the idea that it is only fighting with 10% of its capabilities, when, except for its Nuclear warheads have used all offensive systems to attack points in Ukraine....

The West can produce more than Russia, it's just a matter of focusing the productive system on a war economy, like Russia does... And they haven't even seen the need to do it yet...

You insist on telling lies that only yourself and another couple of fanatics believe,... Since the fall of the USSR, the new Russian Federation does not have the economic (technological) power to counteract the technological evolution of the West, the way countering that Western technological power has been through a "propagandistic" conglomerate, where Westerners even believed that Russia was a great military power and would destroy Ukraine in a week... And no, fighting Ukraine alone for a week and a couple of months, The Russians could not take control of a country in institutional decay and civil war like Ukraine... We began to see that Russia is a giant with feet of clay

Analyze how nearly 80% of these Russian defense companies are subsidiaries, work with Licenses or are part of Western Business Groups, at least until the sanctions date of 2023..... Analyze why we do not see large productions of Armatas tanks, of S-400, of S-500, of Su-35S or of Su-57, and instead, its "large production" is based on restoring stored equipment, with electronics and technology far from being modern .... And the few new systems that produce with decent technology, do so in small quantities solely to show on their propaganda devices

A simple example taken from a video from a Russian Kamaz factory, for truck and armored engines... We have everything from machinery, engineering software to industrial robots, of Western origin, and a few Turkish things



After the sanctions, why is Russia dedicated to restoring instead of producing new and technological projects?... Furthermore, many of them are years behind schedule... Is that Russian Industrial power?... They are in a war economy, and they produce more artillery than the West (not without first having to buy from North Korea or Iran), but if they wanted to and put their industries in a state of war and turned to producing artillery, do not doubt that they would produce many times more than Russia.... Stop lying to yourself
50k dead Russians for 200k or even 500k dead Ukrainians is an amazing trade. The west lost 0.

The next challenge is now, what would the west do if Russia become a Canada to China? There need to be an end goal. A nuclear power isn't going anywhere. Is the end gold nukes for everyone?
This cannot be proven and can be argued against as the situation Ukraine is deteriorating further and further. You could not provide me with single piece of evidence that Russia is running a war economy. The last report I read states that Russia is running an MIC at 8.7% GDP. We know it is not running a war economy or undergoing a full scale mobilization. We know life is very normal inside of Russia. We know the people inside Russia are free to spend their money on anything they want to buy, run their private businesses freely, travel, post on social media, debate freely etc. We know their store shelves are fully stocked and there are hundreds of channels out there on social media that walk through Russian cities to demonstrate how calm and quiet the Russian lives are. Some famous figures out there such as Alex Christoforu, Tucker Carlson, and Scott Ritter have toured Russia to demonstrate the this fact. We know Ukraine is kidnapping people off the streets, some too young, some too old. We also know Ukrainian cities constantly receive strikes, but Russian cities on the other hand, are not. We know Russians volunteer to join the conflict. We have no videos of Russians being abducted, beaten up, and thrown into battle against their wishes. I could go on and on about the differences between the two, but you get my point.



I am neither a propagandist nor a liar or a fanatic. I watch news and read reports like any other human being and I do not make unverifiable claims. Russia is a nuclear power that has a space industry as old as space industries go. Russia produces everything from cars to ships, planes, satellites, silicone chips, CNC machines including 5-axis and 3D modelling software. You name it, they make it. Our friend @gelgoog has made numerous posts regarding how technologically advanced Russia is. You can check these posts out and verify them for yourself at the Russian military news, reports, data, etc. thread. I am sure you will be impressed.

Russia is testing the T-14 on the battlefield to my understanding, but they are already in a conflict, and they want to go with the most efficient path in order to achieve victory, so mass producing the Armata and developing new tactics to use them before verifying the tech is not a good idea at all. Instead, the Russian MOD opt to modernize old tanks by adding all the bells and whistles such as optical suites, modern FCS, more powerful engines, thermal sights, ERA etc. The old tanks end up being just as good as the new ones and can be produced much faster and for less money since the tanks and the infrastructure already exist. This is how things work when you are not running a for profit privatized MIC.

The Russian MOD still receives new batches of Su-35, Su-34, and Su-57. We don't know how many as these numbers are not published for obvious reasons. We know the Su-57 has a new engine, the Izdilye-30, that is being tested and is nearing mass production. We know Russia is constructing many ships, small and large, including around 6 of the new Admiral Gorshkov frigate variants last time I checked, maybe even more by now.

We know from Western report Russia produces millions of shells per year. Here is a quick example.

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I used a Western example intentionally since you don't believe Russian reports. The article states that the US aims to produce 100,000 shells by the end of 2025, while Russia currently produces between 3 to 4.5 million per year, so even by 2025, the US will not even come close to the Russian production numbers of today. It is worth mentioning that I have read more articles regarding Russian production numbers being closer to 7 million shells annually, but I don't want to spend too much time looking for these articles.

You make a point about projects not being on time, but this is not sufficient enough to discredit the Russian MIC. These are complicated projects and Russia is a massive country busy with a conflict and sanctions and reconfiguration of economy from West to East, so delayed projects are a normal side effect. Many MIC projects worldwide end up being delayed and overbudget.

The equipment in the video you posted prove nothing other than the fact that Russia was a good paying customer that the West has lost. I'm sure China can supply all these equipment should Russia find itself unable to meet the demand domestically.

There is nothing wrong with Russia buying equipment from allies and strengthening ties with them while stockpiling ammunitions just in case the conflict escalates into a regional or even a world war. Ukraine has received donations of over 500bn USD worth of equipment from over 50 countries, so why can't Russia purchase equipment from its allies? Why is that forbidden?

We recently had the IMF upgrade the Russian economy to the 4th place behind India and ahead of Japan. Here is the article

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You can also read the IMF report if you have that much time on your hand, but the Russian economy is far more successful than you think.

So to summarize, I made no claims I can't back up and I used Western sources here just so you are satisfied. Should you feel like it, you can do more research on your own time.
I think the evidence is very clear Russian isn't in a war economy. Their major problem is the lack of bidding. Russia' a fossil fuel sale market is largely restricted to non western countries, and as a result, Russia have less bargaining and sell at a lower cost. Russia don't want to depend on China, but they have no choice.
 

tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
Honestly not a bad deal. Selling some shells for a loan is alright for their national interest. Not that China can complain, they are officially neutral on the war.
Be forced to help Ukraine, accepts and receives loan money, and arguably damages Ukraine more in the process, double win
 

CaribouTruth

New Member
Registered Member
This is a development that I didn't expect. Dual citizens to be viewed as solely Ukranian citizens and beholden to recruitment.
"There is an extremely high risk that you will not be allowed to leave even with a US passport." ~ Directly from the US embassy in Ukraine.

Maybe this will cool off the war hawk diaspora segment of the population.

 
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