The War in the Ukraine

As usual, an M777 gets popped by a Lancet. The problem isn't really the lack of ammo, but Ukrainian artillery is getting decimated everyday.


The Russian flag is hoisted over Paraskovievka.


Brazil isn't joining Zelensky's peace conference.


Anger over a Ukrainian infantry counter assault that's gone badly. A company of Ukrainian troops were ordered to storm the village of Ivanovka. Ukrainian Intelligence assured there were only 10-15 Russian troops in the village, and the Ukrainian troops were assured of electronic warfare support. Except in reality, there were 10x the number of Russian troops and the EW support didn't come. There was also two Russian IFVs and a tank, and the sky was filled with Russian drones. Immediately five Ukrainians were killed after drones dumped bombs on them and 11 were wounded.


Russians have broken into the outskirts of Novoalexandrovka as the frontline advances further and further from Avdeyevka.


In Chasiv Yar, an M777 got taken out by a D-20 howitzer by the Sever-V unit. Strikes were also made against nearby ammo depots and personnel barracks.


Abandoned Bradley with BRAT being recovered by the Russians in Berdychi. The area has three other knocked out Bradleys.


Russian 2S3 Akasya SPG applies a Krasnopol on a Ukrainian artillery piece in a forest line.


High rises are valued as defensive and observation positions. TOS saturation attack on Ukrainian positions in these high rises at Chasiv Yar.


Granat-4 UAV from Kalashnikov ZALA now in mass production. Previously a limited number had already been used in combat as proof of viability. The UAV lases targets for laser guided munitions.


Su-34 dumps glide bombs over Ukrainian positions.


Battle of Krasnogorovka. Footage from the Russian 110th Brigade using artillery and TOS.

Kharkhiv officials complain that Russians are hitting empty recreational centers and motels with missiles. Russians say otherwise.

One of these is the Zanki Recreational Center, where lies an empty motel. However it's used as a deployment point for foreign mercenaries, a large warehouse used to store UAVs, a field used to train crews. At least in the past tense prior to missile strikes.


Baba Yaga got bombed from a Russian drone. There's a certain irony in this.


FPV drone attacks a Bradley. By the Vega SPN.


Ukrainian MLRS gets Krasnopoled by the 1st Tank Army in the Kupyansk region.


Footage of missile strike arrival on Dniepr hydroelectric dam.


Ukrainian warehouse hit in the Kharkhiv region.


T-64/T-80 create such a heat signature as this Ukrainian tank tried to hide in the forest. Hit by a Lancet with a thermal imager.


FAB-250s hits a Ukrainian deployment points and UAV control point in Novotyanka Village, in Kherson, right side of the Dniepr.


Uragans arrive on an AFU warehouse in Ingulets.


Counterbattery. Ukrainian D-20 howitzer taken out by MSTA-B of the 238th Brigade.


German PzH-2000 SPG hit by Lancet in the Volchansk area.


Ukrainian D-20 howitzer hit by Lancet in the Volchansk area.


UMPK D-30SN glide bombs hit a Ukrainian deployment point in Kherson.


LMUR hits a Ukrainian deployment point.


Ukrainian bridges and crossings hit with X-38ML missiles.


TOS working on Ukrainian positions in Urozhayne.


Compilation of vehicle kills by drone from the Sparta Battalion (unit now more of brigade size). Unit operates in the Avdeyevka sector.


Toyota Mega Cruiser with a ZU-23-2 machine gun with the VDV. Think Toyota making is version of the Humvee.


Ukrainian construction site with excavator and building materials gets hit by FAB-250s. Possibly building a new fortification. Gulyaypole.

SolarWarden said:

I don't flood this place posting every Russian vehicle that Ukraine has taken out people in, here likely including you, would complain that I'm spamming with useless info. Ukraine taking out Russian s300/400 battery is a big deal. Ukraine taking out a huge convoy of military supply trucks is a huge deal. Ukraine receiving (future) AWACS is a bid deal. Are you starting to recognize my pattern?

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Remind me again what major gains said tactical supposed big deal successes resulted in?

The city of Robotino?

Index said:

Remind me again what major gains said tactical supposed big deal successes resulted in?

The city of Robotino?

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Didn't you see Ukraine's gains during the offensive?

supersnoop said:

This is kind of insane if you think about it. If they are looking outside of the West for munitions and certainly Soviet calibres, they are probably peeking into some really dark holes which is why the quality is bad.

These are places like Sudan, Egypt... We have already seen Pakistan. Not to say these countries are inferior, but they are probably just rushing to meet demand to get paid, have to take advantage of chances when given.

Even crazier, many of these countries' manufacturing had some Chinese assistance (and maybe still do).

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Not the craziest thing in this war. I think the desert cross situation is even more bizzare. You have Russian troops riding in Chinese made ATV, possibly wearing Chinese plates and using Chinese radios, under attack by Ukrainian FPVs built using Chinese made parts and controlled using Chinese made controller and fpv gear. The antenna is probably also Chinese. The only thing stopping this from being a Chinese civil war is a Chinese volunteer on Ukranian side, since we already have footage of Chinese Russian volunteers.

Santamaria said:

As you point, in the biggest offensives they were using 1.5 million a month, that is a crazy number that would require Russia to produce 3 or 4 times their current production to sustain it during a full year.

It is totally compatible that they manufacture more than the West as the news point while at the same time they don't have enough for a Mariupol style across all the front.

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Throughout the war Zelensky & their military top have been making claims of 'vast Russian artillery superiority' combined with 'huge Russian casualties', which is totally contradictory. These of course make the headlines in Western media.

The "up to" 50,000 claim was during the spring-summer Donbass offensive in 2022, I assume that it is just on the most intense days. The combat in 2022 was totally different than what is going on now, the Russians were steamrolling the Ukrainian ground force with artillery fire.

There are several question marks going on.

Right now they are taking forever fighting for multiple settlements- if this was 2022 Vochansk would have been annihilated in weeks. As I said before they are either conserving ammo for a long-term strategy or the claims of their production are inaccurate.

The problem with lower-intensity positional war that they are doing now is that it affords Ukraine plenty of time to recruit hundreds of thousands of conscripts and maintain the static defense. They also have a lot of time to plan and conduct strikes against high-value Russian assets. The 200-odd Russian bomb strikes a day (a few thousand glide bombs a month) do not compare with the firepower of up to 1.5 million heavy artillery rounds.

At the same time we see that the Ukrainian ground force is fought-out and has little capability of attack. This plus their screaming of equipment & ammo shortages would naturally make it an opportune moment for the Russians to make big advances in the front.

Yet here is still very conservative Russian force deployment going on. A big question mark here.

The other alternative approach is that the Russians actually want to fight 500,000 more Ukrainian conscripts, and continue to genocide their male population on the combat line. This was the strategy behind the Chechen war & what Ukrainian Chief of Staff claimed to the UK Economist. But the long war has too many negative factors behind it.

I think if the war drags on for Russia one of the risks is potentially NATO overcoming its artillery production bottleneck. This of course requires continual funding to build out production volume as well as continued political support.

If the US elects Trump in 2024 it could honestly totally upend the entire NATO alliance along with sow massive unrest globally (depending on what policies he actually follows through on).

CaribouTruth said:

This is a development that I didn't expect. Dual citizens to be viewed as solely Ukranian citizens and beholden to recruitment.
"There is an extremely high risk that you will not be allowed to leave even with a US passport." ~ Directly from the US embassy in Ukraine.

Maybe this will cool off the war hawk diaspora segment of the population.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1798125632498385341

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Actualy this is expected. For many countries including Ukraine, a duel citizenship isn't recognized within the country, put another way the other citizenship is legally NOTHING. Such person is not allowed to recieve deplomatic protection from the other country that they are "citizen" of. To be treated as a true foreigner, the person must proactively renounce the former citizenship through precedures.

I think most countries treat duel citizenship holders in such manner including many western countries. In this way, there is really no such thing as "dual citizenship". The only real thing it gives to a person is when he/she is in a third country and need diplomatic protection, he/she can choose which embassy to ask, but very likely not simutanously because one embassy may demand exclusivity.

SlothmanAllen said:

I think if the war drags on for Russia one of the risks is potentially NATO overcoming its artillery production bottleneck. This of course requires continual funding to build out production volume as well as continued political support.

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NATO could increase shell production but Russia will always have a bigger shell availability.

NATO and Russia have similar number of workers in MIC (2 million Russia, 1,5 million the U.S. and less than half million the EU)

But a unique MIC should have less duplicities than the sum of many MICs so more bang for the bucket. And NATO should have more workers than Russia in naval military production, so less available for artillery
Also the availabity of natural resources in Russia will be always bigger than what NATO can buy.

And nobody who follow Russia and China relations should doubt that if they day come when Russia needs shells from China, China will provide. So if by any remote chance NATO could achieve enough production to put Russia in trouble, China production capacity will enter the chat

What is true is that more shells in both sides even with advantage for Russia means more total casualties, and that is something that Russia probably would prefer to avoid.

SlothmanAllen said:

I think if the war drags on for Russia one of the risks is potentially NATO overcoming its artillery production bottleneck. This of course requires continual funding to build out production volume as well as continued political support.

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By the time this happens, artillery may not be relevant. If Ukraine suffers enough manpower and material attrition by 2026, reaching parity in artillery production isn't going to matter anymore because there won't be guns to shoot out of.