The War in the Ukraine

Another s300/400 taken out this time by HiMARS not ATACMs

Ukraine is clearing the path for their F-16's not only to be able to conduct sorties over the fronlines but to loiter over them.

They need to take out this one but I think this one is still off limits because of location

Still bunching them up making it easier for a single cluster ATACM to take the whole bunch out.

What happened here is that a scout drone discovered that a large group of Ukrainian soldiers are using a sewer gutter as a temporary base of operations and a bunker hideout.

Russians sent an ODAB-1500 into the entrance. Event took place in the Kherson region.


Ukrainian Osa AD system taken out by Lancet in the Mikhailovka.


Russians have broken through into Karlivka and the Karlivka Reservoir.


FABs arrive in the area east of Volchansk near the oil plant against Ukrainian formations there.


A small recon group of three Russian special forces encountered a pair of not so motivated Ukrainian troops and escorted them both to Russian lines.


Daily dose of FAB against Ukrainian force concentrations on the right side of the Dniepr.

Stealthflanker said:

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apparently an ISP in Kamenets-Podilskyi stopped operating, as all their employees are sent to front. Kinda bring concern on status of Ukrainian available manpower. I wonder tho if all those "dopamine strikes" against Russian assets like AD battery, city and that Armavir Radar is to deflect from the manpower issue they have.

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As someone mentioned on twitter, with the new mobilization law the ones getting first in priority to the frontlines are those who don't contribute directly to the GDP and make economic numbers go up, so in that context makes sense. But yeah, it will drive people away even more.

And yes the AFU seems making much more of an effort for flashy twitter wins than actually being able to stop the russians. It is why they'd rather waste a massive salvo of ATACMS on a S-400 or limited assets on Crimea rather on troop formations on or near the frontlines. Thats part of the trappings of getting western aid, flashy PR wins helps keep the already limited support coming.

But it isn't sustainable long term if you keep getting pushed back.

As Octagon learned from diplomatic sources, the embassies of a number of countries in Moscow are today conducting active consultations on the risks of Russia delivering retaliatory strikes within the framework of the “military doctrine.” On this topic, in particular, meetings are held between ambassadors and military attaches of a number of countries at the Slovak Embassy in the Russian Federation.
Some countries have received warnings through diplomatic channels about the risk of attacks on their military installations.
We are talking about countries that supply weapons to Ukraine.
According to the information received, Kyiv intends to attack the missile attack warning systems of the Russian Federation using Western weapons.
Such an attack would be perceived by Russia as an attack on key elements of nuclear deterrence, and the response would be given in accordance with Russian military doctrine.
Countries that have been notified in this manner do not include the US and UK.
Nevertheless, the Russian Foreign Ministry notified 14 other countries.
Among them are Canada, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, France and Germany.
The publication also knows that the note was received by Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, and Japan.

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This one is particularly disturbing.

SolarWarden said:

I shall save this.

However I am curious why you think it won't happened other than just declaring it so.... enlighten us please.

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SlothmanAllen said:

Yeah, I am not saying this poster is wrong but I don't think you can make such a definitive statement without attempting to back up the claim.

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Just ask yourselves these very basic questions. Why wait for Ukraine to lose this much land, manpower, and infrastructure? Why wait for the population to be so demoralized and for the military to lose its combat cohesion and for so many millions to immigrate out of Ukraine? Why constantly delay the delivery dates of the F-16s? What runways are even left to host these planes inside Ukraine? Do some deductive reasoning. Russia has stated that they would consider the F-16 a nuclear threat and consider an enemy, any country that these F-16s take off of towards Russia.

The US was banking on Ukraine to weaken Russia, but all they did was make Russia stronger, richer, gave them invaluable combat experience, increased their MIC production capacity to a point where it is higher than the entire production capacity of the West. Lastly, Russia has now tested all its nuclear weapons delivery systems successfully, tactical and strategic.

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in active service and in reserve, and arguably the best delivery systems, and their doctrine states clearly that should Russia face existential threats such as attack on their cities with nuclear capable fighter jets, they respond with said weapons. Top that off with the fact that Russia has a vast network of nuclear shelters and the largest landmass on the planet, giving Russia the highest probability of winning a nuclear war and providing for even more motivation to use their nuclear weapons if pushed far enough.

You need to take the nuclear capability into account when you make your analysis. These weapons aren't there for a picture frame. Imagine saying something like "The Mexican army is taking out Patriots and THAADs, clearing the path for their Su-30's not only to be able to conduct sorties over the fronlines but to loiter over them". It would sound so comical, simply because it doesn't take into account the US nuclear capability. Stop pretending Russia is a conventional power.

First image of the TOS-3. Thinner rockera than the TOS-2 and TOS-1, it seems

iBBz said:

Just ask yourselves these very basic questions. Why wait for Ukraine to lose this much land, manpower, and infrastructure? Why wait for the population to be so demoralized and for the military to lose its combat cohesion and for so many millions to immigrate out of Ukraine? Why constantly delay the delivery dates of the F-16s? What runways are even left to host these planes inside Ukraine? Do some deductive reasoning. Russia has stated that they would consider the F-16 a nuclear threat and consider an enemy, any country that these F-16s take off of towards Russia.

The US was banking on Ukraine to weaken Russia, but all they did was make Russia stronger, richer, gave them invaluable combat experience, increased their MIC production capacity to a point where it is higher than the entire production capacity of the West. Lastly, Russia has now tested all its nuclear weapons delivery systems successfully, tactical and strategic.

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in active service and in reserve, and arguably the best delivery systems, and their doctrine states clearly that should Russia face existential threats such as attack on their cities with nuclear capable fighter jets, they respond with said weapons. Top that off with the fact that Russia has a vast network of nuclear shelters and the largest landmass on the planet, giving Russia the highest probability of winning a nuclear war and providing for even more motivation to use their nuclear weapons if pushed far enough.

You need to take the nuclear capability into account when you make your analysis. These weapons aren't there for a picture frame. Imagine saying something like "The Mexican army is taking out Patriots and THAADs, clearing the path for their Su-30's not only to be able to conduct sorties over the fronlines but to loiter over them". It would sound so comical, simply because it doesn't take into account the US nuclear capability. Stop pretending Russia is a conventional power.

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So when Ukraine gets their F-16's delivered now what?

sheogorath said:

And yes the AFU seems making much more of an effort for flashy twitter wins than actually being able to stop the russians. It is why they'd rather waste a massive salvo of ATACMS on a S-400 or limited assets on Crimea rather on troop formations on or near the frontlines.

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Tbh how much of that is a byproduct of Russians having activated more attack elements and moved up stuff into riskier positions than before in order to shield the bulk of the forces?

They'd want to attack the troop formations if they could. That would also be good PR.

iBBz said:

Just ask yourselves these very basic questions. Why wait for Ukraine to lose this much land, manpower, and infrastructure? Why wait for the population to be so demoralized and for the military to lose its combat cohesion and for so many millions to immigrate out of Ukraine? Why constantly delay the delivery dates of the F-16s? What runways are even left to host these planes inside Ukraine? Do some deductive reasoning. Russia has stated that they would consider the F-16 a nuclear threat and consider an enemy, any country that these F-16s take off of towards Russia.

The US was banking on Ukraine to weaken Russia, but all they did was make Russia stronger, richer, gave them invaluable combat experience, increased their MIC production capacity to a point where it is higher than the entire production capacity of the West. Lastly, Russia has now tested all its nuclear weapons delivery systems successfully, tactical and strategic.

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in active service and in reserve, and arguably the best delivery systems, and their doctrine states clearly that should Russia face existential threats such as attack on their cities with nuclear capable fighter jets, they respond with said weapons. Top that off with the fact that Russia has a vast network of nuclear shelters and the largest landmass on the planet, giving Russia the highest probability of winning a nuclear war and providing for even more motivation to use their nuclear weapons if pushed far enough.

You need to take the nuclear capability into account when you make your analysis. These weapons aren't there for a picture frame. Imagine saying something like "The Mexican army is taking out Patriots and THAADs, clearing the path for their Su-30's not only to be able to conduct sorties over the fronlines but to loiter over them". It would sound so comical, simply because it doesn't take into account the US nuclear capability. Stop pretending Russia is a conventional power.

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Nuclear doesn't really come into it, they'll exhaust all conventional options first.

F-16 is just another in a long list of failed supposed "gamechangers" most of which ended up adorning some street in Moscow... We'd probably see the Abrams situation in redux, that is, the moment they're used for combat, Russians egged on by western propaganda start hyperfocusing on them, a few shootdowns/destruction happen, then the remaining units are withdrawn to somewhere classified for "retrofitting".

India not attending Zelensky's so called peace conference.

Ukrainian vehicle hit by FPV drone from the 200th Brigade.


Another Ukrainian vehicle hit by Lancet.


Ukrainians manage to evacuate a small portion of destroyed Maxxpro MRAPs into the rear, creating a cemetery of vehicles.


Large fire from warehouses in Kviv. It appears an ammo depot may have been struck.


Lancet hits a Ukrainian SPG in the Svatovo area.


MTU-72 bridge layer destroyed by Lancet. The bridge itself destroyed by followup artillery strikes.


Ukrainian mortar nest hit by artillery, by the Sever-V brigade.


TOS use on Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar.


Russians advanced east of Rabotino. Looks to close the salient here.


Russian positional gains in the Chasiv Yar eastern microdistrict and around the Kanal.


Destroyed M109 Paladin found.


Ukrainian BMP-2 that was destroyed by ATGM.


Russian UAV spotted a Ukrainian pickup with drone operators. The pickup is followed to it's hideout and once the operators are inside the shelter, the Russians sent an FPV drone into it.

SolarWarden said:

So when Ukraine gets their F-16's delivered now what?

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I have no idea, but constantly escalating and completely cutting off comms is a recipe for disaster.

Index said:

Tbh how much of that is a byproduct of Russians having activated more attack elements and moved up stuff into riskier positions than before in order to shield the bulk of the forces?

They'd want to attack the troop formations if they could. That would also be good PR.


Nuclear doesn't really come into it, they'll exhaust all conventional options first.

F-16 is just another in a long list of failed supposed "gamechangers" most of which ended up adorning some street in Moscow... We'd probably see the Abrams situation in redux, that is, the moment they're used for combat, Russians egged on by western propaganda start hyperfocusing on them, a few shootdowns/destruction happen, then the remaining units are withdrawn to somewhere classified for "retrofitting".

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The problem is the West think Russia is a joke. It is just one escalation after another. The Russian MOD might feel like they need to do something outlandish in order to be taken seriously. The situation is too volatile right now. I hope you are right. God help us if you are not.