The War in the Ukraine

The work of call sign "Manul", a Spetznaz of the Viking Squad. Mr. Manul took out four Bradleys in ATGMs in the same sitting.


A large hanger of AFU equipment takes a double dose of FAB in Petropavlovka.


A Russian drone managed to bomb a Baba Yaga in mid air.


FAB-250s arrive at a Ukrainian position in Tyaginka in the right side of the Dniepr.


Another Ukrainian held bridge is obliterated with an X-38ML attack.


Chasiv Yar in flames as the Russians bombard Ukrainian positions with artillery and air strikes.


Ukrainian FPV drone attacks a ZALA reconnaissance drone.


Damage to a Avangard railway ferry in Kerch by ATACMs. At least six ATACMS were launched.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicle in Volchansk.


American M577 command post carrier blows up on a mine in Chasiv Yar.


Ukrainian UAV operator made the fatal mistake of recovering his drone. His whereabouts was traced and the Russians express delivered their own FPV to the hideout of Ukrainian UAV operators.


Russians captured more positions in Chasiv Yar, trying to encircle the district. This looks like another fire sack meat grinder is forming.


Ukrainian T-64BV hit by Lancet.


Ukrainian self propelled gun destroyed by Lancet by Group North.


Ukrainian M113 and Varta APC destroyed in Zaporozhye.


MLRS strikes on Ukrainian positions in Zaporozhye.


Ukrainian UAV control point at the right side of the Dniepr destroyed by UAV operators of the Russian Marines.


Ukrainian communication tower in Kherson hit by FPV drone. Tower still standing but targeted arrays would have been destroyed.


The 5th Brigade has now stormed the Krasnogorovka administration building.


Ukrainian authorities are using Claymore mines to seed the borders like the Tiszva River to prevent draft dodgers from escaping.

Tam said:

Ukrainian authorities are using Claymore mines to seed the borders like the Tiszva River to prevent draft dodgers from escaping.

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doesnt seem to be productive idea tho, as Claymore can maim or kill the victim.

SolarWarden said:

Who cares about how many launchers. Russians can have trillions of launchers for all NATO cares it is the track/acquisition radar that is thee most important part of battery and those aren't plenty.

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Based in what?

Majority of the losses showed here are launchers, not radars

Only radar I have seen proof of being destroyed has been a couple 92N6E and a couple of 96L6E. (although of course Ukraine claims to have destroyed twice this number of radars, even with their untruthful claims a maximum of 4 radars of each type)

Again with data from 2019, Russia should have at that point minimum one 92N6E and one 96L per battalion (plus obviously they will have some replacement ), and they had 57 battalion. So 57 92N6E plus 57 96L6L.

5 years after 2019, with 2 increases in military budget the number is possibly twice that one.

Again the Ukranians have destroyed less radars than the number of radars that Russians have manufactured during the war. Russia has more radars and system now than in 2022 if rate is consistent with previous production





Here you have the report about the destruction of one the 96L6E:


In this news you will find Ukraine officials saying that they are using volleys of ATACMS to overload the S400 launchers. He claims 5 ATACMS, and I would take that with a grain of salt. More plausible that the number is close to 10.

Even this article from a western source (but serious) says that Ukraine is using too many ATACMs to achieve only tactical victories

As I told, this is a drop in a ocean. Ukraine have destroyed at best around 5% of S400 radars.

Additionally, to operate freely those aircraft as you suggested Ukraine should also destroy the S300 systems.
In 2010 Russia has more than 2000 launchers and hundreds of S300 radars. And they continue manufacturing S300VM.
Even assuming an exaggerated number of 10 launcher per radar Russia has around 200 S300 radars

As what happened with tanks, any deployment of F16 will be a disaster, they will operate in inferiority numbers not only against VKS but against dozens and dozens of air defense systems.

But you can continue with your copium based in some systems destroyed here and there by Ukraine.
Such a surprise, that in a war systems are destroyed and mistakes are done.
The Red Army should have given up when they loose 2000 aircraft in the first day of Barbarossa operation, or when they have full armies captured.
Why to produce new aircraft and systems, if some are destroyed you have lost according to modern western war analysis..

Index said:

Vandalism requiring 8 ballistic missiles on a ferry when there's plenty of military targets to go.

On the up side, I suppose that's the only Avangard Ukraine would ever be able to put a missile in.

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It's a bit strange considering Ukraine may soon get clearance (or orders?) to strike targets inside Russia with these weapons.

Not sure what they will strike, but hunting freight trains carrying munitions could create some major logistical problems for Russia. Seems much more important than hunting some ferries.

It's also interesting to see what "retaliation" Russia has planned, just some major strike package, or some kind of escalation?

Proton said:

It's a bit strange considering Ukraine may soon get clearance (or orders?) to strike targets inside Russia with these weapons.

Not sure what they will strike, but hunting freight trains carrying munitions could create some major logistical problems for Russia. Seems much more important than hunting some ferries.

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Chasiv yar or volchansk is russian territory?

They presumably mostly go after stationary targets because it's what they can hit.

If they could hit moving logistics going to supply Russian positions, they would not be caught in fire sacks on most fronts.

Index said:

Chasiv yar or volchansk is russian territory?

They presumably mostly go after stationary targets because it's what they can hit.

If they could hit moving logistics going to supply Russian positions, they would not be caught in fire sacks on most fronts.

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Im under the impression Russia mainly uses trucks for supplies within Ukraine.

A major freight train can weight several thousand tons, and they are particular vulnerable when they arrive to their destination - a location which can be intermittently monitored by satellites or any other mode of intelligence.

The aftermath of some very big ATACM hits on a train in Belgorod seems like a likely "confirmation" that Ukraine is now authorized to strike within Russia with these weapons. A big bang, and then Russia will be forced to use much shorter trains near Ukraine.

Proton said:

It's a bit strange considering Ukraine may soon get clearance (or orders?) to strike targets inside Russia with these weapons.

Not sure what they will strike, but hunting freight trains carrying munitions could create some major logistical problems for Russia. Seems much more important than hunting some ferries.

It's also interesting to see what "retaliation" Russia has planned, just some major strike package, or some kind of escalation?

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Trains are very difficult to hit because they are moving fast.

Russia has far more cruise missiles than any number could (and would) be provided to Ukraine, but they have not been able to disrupt the delivery of weapons from the west to the front.

There is absolute no reason to believe that Ukraine will have any capability of creating logistical problems attacking trains.

Only possibility is to hit it when it stops and it is not so easy, there should be lot of coordination. And a train is not a ship. If you attack a ship all the cargo is sunk, if you attack a train you can destroy one vagon but all the rest? I suppose no rational army fill of shells or systems all vagons, but there should be vagons in the middle of the others unloaded or loaded with non explosive things.

Ukraine is attacking random things as always because they need constant support to their PR campagins.

Proton said:

The aftermath of some very big ATACM hits on a train in Belgorod seems like a likely "confirmation" that Ukraine is now authorized to strike within Russia with these weapons. A big bang, and then Russia will be forced to use much shorter trains near Ukraine.

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As I told is very difficult to hit trains in movement. And if you mean when loading. why Russia would load those trains in Belgorod under the range of those "authorised strikes" when they can load them in let say Tula and sent them by the same railway adding only a couple of hours of travel.

Santamaria said:

As I told is very difficult to hit trains in movement. And if you mean when loading. why Russia would load those trains in Belgorod under the range of those "authorised strikes" when they can load them in let say Tula and sent them by the same railway adding only a couple of hours of travel.

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The point is that major munitions freight trains have to unload or be split at some railhead, my guess is the most important one is at Belgorod (Perhaps along with Rostov and Krasnodar), and then get sent by truck or smaller trains to their destination at or near the front.

Proton said:

The point is that major munitions freight trains have to unload or be split at some railhead, my guess is the most important one is at Belgorod (Perhaps along with Rostov and Krasnodar), and then get sent by truck or smaller trains to their destination at or near the front.

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Why to Belgorod? Belgorod is pretty isolated and far away from the main fronts. They would unload there only the material that is used in the small Khakov front



Also, is there no railway connection of Lugansk with Russia? It is impossible to find current map, but at least in the past such railway existed. I suppose at least Lugansk has to be connected with Russia, and therefore it is more logical to unload there.,

Now that they recovered Avdivka they could in theory also unload in Donetsk (if you check the map, when Ukraine dominated Avdivka the line was controlled by them basically


And finally, Russia also built a line from Rostov, to Mariupol, to Melitopol and from there to Crimea. To provide redundancy in the supply of Crimea

So basically Russia can unload everything they may need in Luhansk, Melitopol, Mariupol, Donekst and posibly many small towns along those lines.

I am 100% sure that nothing for Donbass front is unloaded in Belgorod and I also doubt that Rostov is used for that, when you have so many places to do it within the new regions, that are closer to the front

We'll see how those strikes would turn out... whether it frighten Russians or maybe having the opposite effect of infuriating Russians more.