The War in the Ukraine

If Ukraine attacks on Russian oil/gas refineries continue to escalate and Russian oil/gas exports are heavily affected as a result, I wonder if this will prompt China to send large amounts air defense systems to Russia, on the condition that they be used for defending critical infrastructure deep within Russia and not on the frontlines.

1) Russia's fossil fuel exports being affected actually impacts China quite badly. So it would be beneficial for China to prevent Russia's oil/gas export capacity from dropping too much

2) It's purely defensive and not going to be used in the frontline and not directly killing people, so it's probably easier for China to not get sanctioned too badly or criticized too harshly for sending large amounts of military equipment to Russia. Also alot easier to hide the fact that they were send by China if they're not used in the frontlines and hidden deep into Russia.

3) Given how many countries depend on Russian oil/gas, even Europe still buys Russian fossil fuels off the table or via 2nd hand sources, and the global energy market being so interlinked, most countries probably don't want Russian oil/gas exports to be too badly affected and for oil prices climb up though the roof. Which is to say that most countries, maybe even Europe or America might not raise too much of a fuss about it even if it was found out early.

4) It's a once in a century chance for China to test out an important piece of military doctrine and equipment in actual combat setting. Even more so when considering how insanely common this kind of drone swarm attacks will be in the future.

5) With America already slapping insane tariffs on Chinese goods, especially the high end stuff, it's obvious that trade relations are just going to worsen no matter what and that America is eventually gonna to try to drive most chinese goods out of it's market, with America probably forcing European countries to do the same in a couple of years. With this in mind, there's less and less of an incentive for China to just sit on the sidelines and not directly intervene in the conflict. China could also spin this as an "If you keep trying to tariff/sanction me out of your trade networks, there's less and less reason for me to stay on the sidelines and just frees me up to throw my weight around in the world stage against America/Europe and act more directly"

tacoburger said:

If Ukraine attacks on Russian oil/gas refineries continue to escalate and Russian oil/gas exports are heavily affected as a result, I wonder if this will prompt China to send large amounts air defense systems to Russia, on the condition that they be used for defending critical infrastructure deep within Russia and not on the frontlines.

1) Russia's fossil fuel exports being affected actually impacts China quite badly. So it would be beneficial for China to prevent Russia's oil/gas export capacity from dropping too much

2) It's purely defensive and not going to be used in the frontline and not directly killing people, so it's probably easier for China to not get sanctioned too badly or criticized too harshly for sending large amounts of military equipment to Russia. Also alot easier to hide the fact that they were send by China if they're not used in the frontlines and hidden deep into Russia.

3) Given how many countries depend on Russian oil/gas, even Europe still buys Russian fossil fuels off the table or via 2nd hand sources, and the global energy market being so interlinked, most countries probably don't want Russian oil/gas exports to be too badly affected and for oil prices climb up though the roof. Which is to say that most countries, maybe even Europe or America might not raise too much of a fuss about it even if it was found out early.

4) It's a once in a century chance for China to test out an important piece of military doctrine and equipment in actual combat setting. Even more so when considering how insanely common this kind of drone swarm attacks will be in the future.

5) With America already slapping insane tariffs on Chinese goods, especially the high end stuff, it's obvious that trade relations are just going to worsen no matter what and that America is eventually gonna to try to drive most chinese goods out of it's market, with America probably forcing European countries to do the same in a couple of years. With this in mind, there's less and less of an incentive for China to just sit on the sidelines and not directly intervene in the conflict. China could also spin this as an "If you keep trying to tariff/sanction me out of your trade networks, there's less and less reason for me to stay on the sidelines and just frees me up to throw my weight around in the world stage against America/Europe and act more directly"

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1 - You will never see Russia asking air defences from other country, and much less to accept any condition in the usage or nothing. This ideas come from Western propaganda and misunderstanding of the real power of Russia

2 - Refineries are difficult to dearly, I don’t think there is any significant drop in the output or in Russian exports.

3 - Refineries are attacked with drones. More that air defences what is needed there is metal if cages to protect flammable sections like there were installed in some

tacoburger said:

If Ukraine attacks on Russian oil/gas refineries continue to escalate and Russian oil/gas exports are heavily affected as a result, I wonder if this will prompt China to send large amounts air defense systems to Russia, on the condition that they be used for defending critical infrastructure deep within Russia and not on the frontlines.

1) Russia's fossil fuel exports being affected actually impacts China quite badly. So it would be beneficial for China to prevent Russia's oil/gas export capacity from dropping too much

2) It's purely defensive and not going to be used in the frontline and not directly killing people, so it's probably easier for China to not get sanctioned too badly or criticized too harshly for sending large amounts of military equipment to Russia. Also alot easier to hide the fact that they were send by China if they're not used in the frontlines and hidden deep into Russia.

3) Given how many countries depend on Russian oil/gas, even Europe still buys Russian fossil fuels off the table or via 2nd hand sources, and the global energy market being so interlinked, most countries probably don't want Russian oil/gas exports to be too badly affected and for oil prices climb up though the roof. Which is to say that most countries, maybe even Europe or America might not raise too much of a fuss about it even if it was found out early.

4) It's a once in a century chance for China to test out an important piece of military doctrine and equipment in actual combat setting. Even more so when considering how insanely common this kind of drone swarm attacks will be in the future.

5) With America already slapping insane tariffs on Chinese goods, especially the high end stuff, it's obvious that trade relations are just going to worsen no matter what and that America is eventually gonna to try to drive most chinese goods out of it's market, with America probably forcing European countries to do the same in a couple of years. With this in mind, there's less and less of an incentive for China to just sit on the sidelines and not directly intervene in the conflict. China could also spin this as an "If you keep trying to tariff/sanction me out of your trade networks, there's less and less reason for me to stay on the sidelines and just frees me up to throw my weight around in the world stage against America/Europe and act more directly"

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Personally, I would say China allow Russia to use Chinese territory to manufacture air defense if Ukraine targets Russia's air defense factories. China keeps its hands clean while allowing Russia to continue air defense output.

tacoburger said:

If Ukraine attacks on Russian oil/gas refineries continue to escalate and Russian oil/gas exports are heavily affected as a result, I wonder if this will prompt China to send large amounts air defense systems to Russia, on the condition that they be used for defending critical infrastructure deep within Russia and not on the frontlines.

1) Russia's fossil fuel exports being affected actually impacts China quite badly. So it would be beneficial for China to prevent Russia's oil/gas export capacity from dropping too much

2) It's purely defensive and not going to be used in the frontline and not directly killing people, so it's probably easier for China to not get sanctioned too badly or criticized too harshly for sending large amounts of military equipment to Russia. Also alot easier to hide the fact that they were send by China if they're not used in the frontlines and hidden deep into Russia.

3) Given how many countries depend on Russian oil/gas, even Europe still buys Russian fossil fuels off the table or via 2nd hand sources, and the global energy market being so interlinked, most countries probably don't want Russian oil/gas exports to be too badly affected and for oil prices climb up though the roof. Which is to say that most countries, maybe even Europe or America might not raise too much of a fuss about it even if it was found out early.

4) It's a once in a century chance for China to test out an important piece of military doctrine and equipment in actual combat setting. Even more so when considering how insanely common this kind of drone swarm attacks will be in the future.

5) With America already slapping insane tariffs on Chinese goods, especially the high end stuff, it's obvious that trade relations are just going to worsen no matter what and that America is eventually gonna to try to drive most chinese goods out of it's market, with America probably forcing European countries to do the same in a couple of years. With this in mind, there's less and less of an incentive for China to just sit on the sidelines and not directly intervene in the conflict. China could also spin this as an "If you keep trying to tariff/sanction me out of your trade networks, there's less and less reason for me to stay on the sidelines and just frees me up to throw my weight around in the world stage against America/Europe and act more directly"

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You cannot just send air defense systems piecemeal. Air defenses networks needs proper C2 and there no fast way for a whole alternative network to be set up.

Chinese assistance if it comes will probably be in 122mm shell and systems, missiles man portable or otherwise, drones and light armored vehicles.

Iskander strike at S-300 system in Odessa.


Iskander strike at Iris-T system near Odessa. TRML-4D radar taken out.



FABs on Ukrainian positions and depots on Makarovka.


FABs arrive at Liman.


LMUR attacks at Sadove.


Ukrainian Gvozdika SPG taken out by counterbattery in Vodyne.

Santamaria said:

1 - You will never see Russia asking air defences from other country, and much less to accept any condition in the usage or nothing. This ideas come from Western propaganda and misunderstanding of the real power of Russia

2 - Refineries are difficult to dearly, I don’t think there is any significant drop in the output or in Russian exports.

3 - Refineries are attacked with drones. More that air defences what is needed there is metal if cages to protect flammable sections like there were installed in some

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1) And I never though that Russia would have to beg Iran and NK for ammo and weapons too, but here we are. We are a long way from Russia taking Ukraine in 2 weeks. This "Russia STONK" shit is just embarrassing at this point.

2) Nobody has no idea how successful Ukraine can be. Use of massive swarms of low cost UAVs as an substitute for missile strikes are a new thing, Ukraine could buy and modify enough commercial aircraft to keep sending dozens of UAVs a day into Russia for the rest of the war, we just don't know. Or things could be fine for years until Ukraine sends out a thousand strong UAV swarm over the course of a day and drop output significantly overnight. Not to mention that we have no idea how long the war could last. Just because things are fine today, doesn't mean shit 2 years later.

3) This UAVs are not handheld FPV drones. They can carry tens to hundreds of kilos of explosives, the drone themselves weight hundreds of kilos. A thin metal mesh armor isn't going to work as protection. And even if somehow does manage to protect the oil refineries, you can't armor everything. There's many other vunerable parts of the supply chain that you can target if the oil refineries become too hard to crack, like say the thousand of kilometers of pipelines. The best protection is still adequate air defense to cover most of incoming missiles or UAV coming out of Ukraine.

RedMetalSeadramon said:

You cannot just send air defense systems piecemeal. Air defenses networks needs proper C2 and there no fast way for a whole alternative network to be set up.

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Then it would be best to do so as soon as possible no? Or months ago when Ukraine first started to drone striking critical Russian infrastructure. The war could go on for years more at this rate, so it's not like China doesn't have the time. Not to mention that this is a UAV swarm, not missiles. Something like truck mounted AA guns deployed to critical infrastructure sites can be deployed fast as a stopgap for now, until better intergrated defenses networks can be set up.

RedMetalSeadramon said:

Chinese assistance if it comes will probably be in 122mm shell and systems, missiles man portable or otherwise, drones and light armored vehicles.

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LOL. And open itself up to lots of sanctions? Russia isn't worth losing access to the European market. If China wanted to send direct weapons systems, they would have already done so. Like I have explained, sending purely defensive weapons is a lot more easier to hide and the response from Europe/America probably won't respond too harshly as opposed to China sending shells or tanks. And again, China has a direct economical interest in making sure Russian fossil fuel exports don't drop sharply, hell the entire world other than Ukraine has a vested interest in making sure that Russian oil/gas export drop like a rock so that fuel prices don't go haywire- which again will might help China dodge sanctions.

ThreeAmigos said:

Personally, I would say China allow Russia to use Chinese territory to manufacture air defense if Ukraine targets Russia's air defense factories. China keeps its hands clean while allowing Russia to continue air defense output.

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Not feasible.

tacoburger said:

1) And I never though that Russia would have to beg Iran and NK for ammo and weapons too, but here we are. We are a long way from Russia taking Ukraine over in 2 weeks. This "Russia STONK" shit is just embarrassing at this point.

2) Nobody has no idea how successful Ukraine can be. Use of massive swarms of low cost UAVs as an substitute for missile strikes are a new thing. Things could be fine for years until Ukraine sends out a thousand strong UAV swarm over the course of a day and drop output significantally overnight. Not to mention that we have no idea how long the war could last. Just because things are fine today, doesn't mean shit 2 years later.

3) This UAVs are not handheld FPV drones. They can carry tens to hundreds of kilos of explosives, the drone themselves weight hundreds of kilos. A thin metal mesh armor isn't going to work as protection. And even if somehow does manage to protect the oil refineries, you can't armor everything. There's many other vunerable parts of the supply chain that you can target if the oil refineries become too hard to crack, like say the thousand of kilometers of pipelines. The best protection is still adequate air defense to cover most of incoming missiles or UAV coming out of Ukraine.

Then it would be best to do so as soon as possible no? Or months ago when Ukraine first started to drone striking critical Russian infrastructure.

LOL. And open itself up to lots of sanctions? Russia isn't worth losing access to the European market. If China wanted to send direct weapons systems, they would have already done so. Like I have explained, sending purely defensive weapons is a lot more easier to hide and the response from Europe/America probably won't respond too harshly as opposed to China sending shells or tanks. And again, China has a direct economical interest in making sure Russian fossil fuel exports don't drop sharply, hell the entire world other than Ukraine has a vested interest in making sure that Russian oil/gas export drop like a rock so that fuel prices don't go haywire- which again will might help China dodge sanctions.

Not feasible.

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How to let clear that you are a propagandist in your first sentence, LOL.

You people can’t speak without using “humilliating” words like beg, desperate.

Really nothing you are saying make sense.

You have the delusional fantasy that Russia need Chinese air defences to protect refineries (not even military targets but refineries) and then proceed to create a case of some imaginary conditions that China would imposs Russia because European market is more important than Russian market.

I also have a good laugh with your Ukraine manufacturing thousands of drones because nobody knows how successful Ukraine has been.

PD: China does not give a fuck about Europe and U.S. and how difficult for them is to swallow whatever they do. If the moment comes when Russia need helps come, China will provide.
All your fantasies about European market are fantasies.
A weakened desindustrialised Europe as a result of a total Russian victory is a far better market for China.
Indeed for China the best outcome is Russia reaching the borders with Hungary. Creating a friendly unstoppable route towards the 2 biggest allies of China in Europe (Serbia and Hungary).
From there Chinese products and influence can spread to neutral Austria, Switzerland and to the Balkans. Basically putting a knife in the heart of the European Union and initiating its dismemberment.

China is interested in individual trade with European nations, not in a unified market created to benefit Germany while controlled by the US

PD2: Do you know what is begging? It is not Russia buying some shells from old ally NK. It is US and Germany trying to buy shells from Pakistan, Indonesia and random countries because neither them neither their precious network of allies produce enough.
That Russia produces more shells that full NATO and NK more shells than full EU is borderline pathetic.
Maybe you should write a post of how EU need to gets Chinese air defences, and how China will impose EU some harsh conditions. Certainly they need them a lot

Neither China or Russia has any appetite at present for deeper direct involvement by China. However, as I have said before, Chinese indirect assistance is almost certainly broader and more comprehensive than anyone would openly admit.

I noted not long ago that the Russians announced breakthroughs in air defence laser tech. If Silent Hunter style anti air lasers start appearing en mass around Russian refineries and other key strategic infrastructure with a slightly different shell, who’s going to look under the hood to check they are indeed Russian?

But even with providing such inherently defensive systems to the Russians to defend strategic assets deep within Russia, things are not so straight forwards as there would be almost overwhelming pressure within the Russian military to redeploy such systems directly to the front, which would then introduce the very real risk of these systems being captured by Ukraine and presenting the US with a smoking gun to fully take over the foreign policy of EU member states.

While I think China is ultimately fighting an unwinnable battle trying to convince the inbred privileged racists idiots in charge of European politics to do what is in their national best interest to remain neutral in the coming fight between America and China, China is still trying is damnedest to resist or at least delay the full absorption of the EU into the US block, as evidenced by Xi’s recent European tour.

That means that China will keep its hands clean and out of the whole Ukraine affair so long as NATO stays out officially and Russia doesn’t suffer any overwhelming comprehensive loss.

So even for Silent Hunters, I think China will provide the Russians with all assistance needed to develop their own indigenous versions, including setting up the whole supply chain, instead of sending Chinese made units wholesale. That might be slower, but once the factories gets going, expect these to be like lancets where they start to flood the battlefield.

plawolf said:

Neither China or Russia has any appetite at present for deeper direct involvement by China. However, as I have said before, Chinese indirect assistance is almost certainly broader and more comprehensive than anyone would openly admit.

I noted not long ago that the Russians announced breakthroughs in air defence laser tech. If Silent Hunter style anti air lasers start appearing en mass around Russian refineries and other key strategic infrastructure with a slightly different shell, who’s going to look under the hood to check they are indeed Russian?

But even with providing such inherently defensive systems to the Russians to defend strategic assets deep within Russia, things are not so straight forwards as there would be almost overwhelming pressure within the Russian military to redeploy such systems directly to the front, which would then introduce the very real risk of these systems being captured by Ukraine and presenting the US with a smoking gun to fully take over the foreign policy of EU member states.

While I think China is ultimately fighting an unwinnable battle trying to convince the inbred privileged racists idiots in charge of European politics to do what is in their national best interest to remain neutral in the coming fight between America and China, China is still trying is damnedest to resist or at least delay the full absorption of the EU into the US block, as evidenced by Xi’s recent European tour.

That means that China will keep its hands clean and out of the whole Ukraine affair so long as NATO stays out officially and Russia doesn’t suffer any overwhelming comprehensive loss.

So even for Silent Hunters, I think China will provide the Russians with all assistance needed to develop their own indigenous versions, including setting up the whole supply chain, instead of sending Chinese made units wholesale. That might be slower, but once the factories gets going, expect these to be like lancets where they start to flood the battlefield.

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Has there been indications of China providing any significant assistance to Russia, rather than upholding neutrality?

Proton said:

Has there been indications of China providing any significant assistance to Russia, rather than upholding neutrality?

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This actually depend on how one view "Neutrality" Like do you consider China remains being Russian trading partner and not joining "sanction regime" as "not neutral" ?