The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Treating both parties about equal, in the context of a conflict, would be the general understanding of neutrality.
Implementing sanctions against one of the parties sounds like the opposite of neutrality.
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Given the developments and the general trend that Ukraine and drone warfare has been going, it's best to invest in better air defenses now, and not when Russia has lost a decent chunk of her refineries and oil/gas infrastructure. Unless you think UAV/drone swarms technology is gonna regress and that drones are gonna get more expensive and harder to produce. No of course not, this kind of Ukraine drone swarm strike onto Russia energy infrastructure is just gonna to escalate. It's gonna take some time to set up a Chinese A2/AD too,. It's called foresight and preparation.
I would think China will have the appetite for deeper involvement once Russian oil/gas infrastructure has been decimated, but by then, it would be a little too late wouldn't it?
The solution should be based on cheap and mass produced mature technology, not Lazers.
1) We're talking about a Cessna-like propeller driven UAV here, not tiny handheld drones, not cruise missiles. WW2 flak cannons should be able to shoot this kinds of aircraft down, let alone modern AA guns. Frankly it's pathetic that this strikes are happening so deep inside Russia, considering that it's basically an unmanned civilian aircraft packed with explosives. Russia SPAAGs, Shilka/Tunguska/Pantsir should all be able to shoot them down easily. I have no idea how swarms of this UAVs are capable to penerating so deep within Russia airspace. I guessing that all modern Russian SPAAG are busy at the frontlines with FPV drones and can't be spared for deployement for defensive positions deep within Russia. Sending in Chinese SPAAGs systems by the dozens is a easy, effective and quick solution.
2) Laser systems like silent hunter are meant mainly for small UAVs like Mavics such, I'm not sure how they would do vs a plane that will weights>1 ton. Also laser systems don't work in the rain, so it will be simple for Ukraine to adapt into launching their UAV during a rainy day. Also, lasers don't still don't too well vs multiple targets- due to time on target and over heating issues, so drone swarms will still get though via sheer weight of numbers.
3) People aren't dumb, if Russia is suddenly fielding an advanced laser weapon when they're not even able to do basic WW2 tier air defense before, of course people are gonna to suspect that China is helping them in some fashion. What next? North Korea develops a 5th gen stealth fighter and people think that NK developed it completely independently and don't suspect that maybe China had something to with it?
4) A cheap and quick solution is the best, it's hard to see even China mass producing silent hunter system in the dozens or even hundreds that it would take to cover most of Russia's critical infrastructure. A simple gun based mounted CWIS system on the other hand...
I highly highly doubt that Russians would be that dumb, espically not if China sets some redlines and promises to never set any aid for the rest of the war or some other equally as harsh penalties if they were sent to the frontlines. Also, when given weapons systems, there's no way China just sends the hardware without some kind of techincal support and training staff. They can easily report back to Beijing the status of the hardware and make sure that it isn't send to the frontlines. If all else fails, just slap a GPS tracker on whatever hardware that gets send.
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If the drones has GPS control like cruise missile. EW would do little unless it has some intense power or highly directional. This might disrupt civilian system too as well as become fire risk especially if the jammer antenna got incidentally pointed to some sensitive systems or vapor from refining process.
More sophisticated drone might employ some image recognition e.g DSMAC and essentially immune to EW.
They viable solution seems to be laser but Russians doesnt seem to be intensely looking at this field. Laser tho have its own set of issues namely tropospheric absorption, fog and haze will disrupt its operation. Production rate would be relatively slow.
If you look at the videos and photos of the drones that Ukraine has been using to deep strike Russia. It's basically unnamed civilian aircraft. Cessna type aircraft that don't go faster then 200km/hr. WW2 flak cannons can shoot them down. This isn't swarms of dozens of bird sized FPV drones that struggle to be picked up by radar or by human eyes. Modern gun based AA would mince them.
Lasers aren't the solution here. Also current laser systems are meant to deal with small drones and the like, drones weighting a few kilos, not a airplane weighting close to a ton. More mass=more protection=the laser has to spend a lot more time on burning though a single target
By EW I also include GPS jamming/spoofing, supposedly they were used widely in Ukraine. Image recognition is possible but I doubt Ukr has access to mature working system of this nature
They need to be in right place and time tho. The Russian problem is Geographic. Earth is not Smooth, typical air defense radar would be capped by location and horizon. and Air defense may not necessarily be in every place. IF your solution is putting guns then you are looking at some hundreds covering every possible target.
Also slow target have its own set of challenge. Do you know that radar have a minimum speed that it can pick ? That's a feature of air defense or even air traffic radar. Depending on the design whether it's operate in Pulse doppler or MTI. Why this minimum speed limit exist ? Well to make a difference between airplane and bird, which will otherwise saturate your display or computers doing the work.
For example Podlets early warning Radar have minimum target speed of 40 m/s or 120 Km.. anything flying slower wont be detected. This limit can be set according to local known bird species. Now drones can actually fly that low of a speed or even less for lighter one.
Well, bigger laser. Longer range, more brightness.
But then as i said production rate would be low.
Also its asking for actual civilian general aviation aircraft to get shot down by accident in any where of the expected routes. But something tells me taco doesn't really care for that and actually wants that to happen.
Quadcopter drones can hover and don't have a minimum speed. The propeller driven aircraft that Ukraine is using cannot fly below a certain speed, otherwise they stall. Also, unlike the actual bird sized FPV drones, this aircraft would be easily visible on radar, being as large as they are. Being unmanned, they would also display weird behavior, like traveling in a completely straight line, which will kick up red flag and allow you to pick up their final target.
I'm not an expert on radar or anything, but I know that small aircraft like the Cessna can be picked up by airport radars.
Or you know, Russia can intercept them at the border, before they cross hundreds of kilometers into Russia. The border that should be heavily monitored and covered by thousand of different radar systems already, being an active warzone and whatnot.... Failing that, placing AA at critical infrastructure sites, or sending a fighter to intercept in their multi-hour journey into Russia would work., this planes are flying in at 150km/hr, they're not reaching their targets within minutes.
It's really not that easy to scale laser power up. It's not like simply making a gun caliber bigger.
Hundreds are easily possible. We're not trying to engage cruise missiles or FPV swarms here. WW2 flak cannons can do the job. For reference, 6000 soviet era Shilkas were built.
"Attention unidentified aircraft, you are traveling in restricted airspace, give us a response in 20 seconds or we will shoot" A simple query can easily solve this issue.
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A command post of the 3rd Azov Brigade in Izyium got Iskandered. The dead and wounded were pulled out all night from the rubble.
Reports indicating Kleeshevka has fallen back to the Russians or now mostly so.
Ukrainian armored vehicle hit by a Krasnopol M2. The target didn't stand a chance.
Russian FPV drone hits a Ukrainian Starlink array on top of the building. The Starlink is used to communicate with drones over a wide area, so this is going to drop drones over an area all of a sudden.
Air strike on a command post or headquarters of the AFU.
Anti aircraft gunner? This sniper took out a Baba Yaga with one shot.
Tunguska M1 of the 200th Brigade from St. Petersburg in action.
Ukrainian vehicle taken out with an accurate shot from the 200th Artillery Brigade with Group Vostok.
Ukrainian field ammo depot destroyed with an accurate shot from the Sever Group of forces.
Russians broke through the village of Paraskovievka where Ukrainian forces either retreated or disintegrated, and Russian advance units now headed towards the town of Konstantinovka (south, not to be confused with the city of the same name towards the north).
Lancet strike on a Stryker.
Scalp-EG hits the outskirts of Lugansk, totally civilian damage.
Reports indicating Kleeshevka has fallen back to the Russians or now mostly so.
Ukrainian armored vehicle hit by a Krasnopol M2. The target didn't stand a chance.
Russian FPV drone hits a Ukrainian Starlink array on top of the building. The Starlink is used to communicate with drones over a wide area, so this is going to drop drones over an area all of a sudden.
Air strike on a command post or headquarters of the AFU.
Anti aircraft gunner? This sniper took out a Baba Yaga with one shot.
Tunguska M1 of the 200th Brigade from St. Petersburg in action.
Ukrainian vehicle taken out with an accurate shot from the 200th Artillery Brigade with Group Vostok.
Ukrainian field ammo depot destroyed with an accurate shot from the Sever Group of forces.
Russians broke through the village of Paraskovievka where Ukrainian forces either retreated or disintegrated, and Russian advance units now headed towards the town of Konstantinovka (south, not to be confused with the city of the same name towards the north).
Lancet strike on a Stryker.
Scalp-EG hits the outskirts of Lugansk, totally civilian damage.