The War in the Ukraine

Looks like border towns besides Belgorod will fall in matter of days. Reinforcement intercepted. Existing defenders few in number, so they withdrew to avoid overrun.

The immediate consequence is forcing Ukrainians to pull units elsewhere to plug the gap. Large number of artillery were destroyed. Those were shelling Belgorod. We can expect city to be safe from shells. A large traffic channel will be cut off as consequence of obtaining the town. These are immediate short term benefits on top of nice tactical victory.

What comes next is unclear. Most likely Russian will slow down once entering the town. You know, in case of ambush and what not. Ukranians will likely regroup to the next defensive position. The current collapse is likely temporary. What is more interesting is how it will proceed. The defense here is clearly inadequete. Russians should consider pushing further south until Ukraine overcommit. Other units should take advantage of this chaos to intensify their operations.

Jiang ZeminFanboy said:

I haven't been following the conflict much, but are you sure the offensive is unexpected? I've been hearing for the last few months that there is spotted A big new Russian army in the northeast and there is possibility of the attack.

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I mean you are seeing that army begin action today and attack commenced with good result.

Jiang ZeminFanboy said:

I haven't been following the conflict much, but are you sure the offensive is unexpected? I've been hearing for the last few months that there is spotted A big new Russian army in the northeast and there is possibility of the attack.

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These guys talked about the new offensive 13 days ago

Proton said:

I think it's wrong to see the Ukrainian army as weaker than 2022, the size is far larger and their capabilities are much greater in many aspects. Problem is the Russian army is also far stronger than in 2022 and Ukraine is struggling to keep up. But if Russia lets Ukraine use Kharkiv as a giant force multiplier they can suddenly be even again. To hold a city you mostly need light weapons, as the defender can remain well protected most of the time.

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What is the base to say that Ukranian army capabilities are greater?

Call me crazy but I find difficult to believe that an army subjected to daily missiles attacks and bombing during 2 years is stronger now. Just think the amount of officials dying and the constant lost of knowledge.
That without counting the loses in the battlefield in things like the “counter offensive”.

About the equipment I don’t have an eye there but extrapolating the numbers of destroyed Abram’s in comparison with the total I would say that minimum half the armed vehicles of Ukraine have been destroyed.
Basically half of what it was supplied has burnt.
So probably what was before has burnt even in greater quantities.

In 2022 February Ukraine has a very big army, and with the capability of inmediately recruit very trained and motivated people
Since around summer 2022 Ukriane have been permanently loosing capabilities

There might have been a shootdown of a Ukrainian S-27 by a Russian Su-35S over the Kharkhiv region. Data pending.


Ukrainian communication and observation tower hit by an air strike and folds over. Krasnoarmeysky area.


Parking lot of Ukrainian helicopters at Manvelovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, got Iskandered (or Tornado-S). 3 helicopters and 2 damaged, allegedly.


Russian artillery arriving from the Ukrainian viewpoint, near the border area.


Krasnopol strike on a hidden Ukrainian SPG in a forest line. Avdeyevka Ocheretino direction.


A second 2S22 155mm Bogdan SPG found destroyed in the Kharkhiv region.


Another Abrams gets Krasnopoled.


Drone operator bombs a Ukrainian field ammo depot near Ugledar.


Identified camp of Ukrainian UAV operators get hit by a Lancet.


Ukrainian landing boat hit by FPV drone. Dniepr River.


FPV drone hit on a Ukrainian tank in Chasiv Yar area.


Belgorod is shelled again.


Aftermath of a Krasnopol strike on a Leopard tank.


Black soldier in the Russian Army conveys greetings on Victory Day.


Destroyed Stryker evacuated by Ukrainians.

Proton said:

The point is that the entire city is one big fortification, capable of hosting a garrison of immense strength.
If the Ukrainians post 50,000, mostly lightly armed, soldiers there, then surely Russia will need several times more troops to capture the city, with massive amounts of heavy equipment.
Defenders wouldn't just have the advantage of immense protection, but also the ability to move unhindered within the city, countering any assault and mustering local superiority in any area of the frontline. And the potential of outside attacks the siege would put immense requirements for securing the 90 km frontline needed for an encirclement.

We're not talking about Mariupol, which was lightly defended and easily cut off without much resistance. Nor are we talking about Gaza, which is similar in scope, but could be easily divided in sectors and with isolated defenders who has mostly basic light weapons and zero heavy weapons, plus no real outside support. Kharkiv is another type of beast entirely, with far more sturdy buildings than Gaza, a circular structure - preventing sectoring - well armed defenders, very difficult to cut off and with the potential for massive outside support.

The defensive position is such a great force multiplier, trying to surround it would quickly erode any Russian advantage across the front line. I'd think the only way of taking Kharkiv, unless the Russians want to raze all of it, is essentially to overwhelm Ukraine across the entire front, forcing them to shorten it.

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I don’t mean to pile on, but it takes an insane amount of food, water, and ammunition to keep 50,000 troops fighting. You really should look at Mariupol which was defended by at least 3 entire brigades, most of the troops withdrew to avoid encirclement. Why?

Hint; look at when Azovstal was isolated and when they surrendered. It didn’t take long and that was effectively a bunker.

What I expected in Feb. 2022 was for Russia to systematically rout Ukrainian forces into cities, surround them, cut off their electricity, food, water, set up EW and accept their surrender. Because you really can’t feed thousands of people with ammunition and water for long when they’re surrounded.

Why do you think Ukrainians ran from Avdeevka? They’re neither cowards nor stupid. Do the math.

Santamaria said:

What is the base to say that Ukranian army capabilities are greater?

Call me crazy but I find difficult to believe that an army subjected to daily missiles attacks and bombing during 2 years is stronger now. Just think the amount of officials dying and the constant lost of knowledge.
That without counting the loses in the battlefield in things like the “counter offensive”.

About the equipment I don’t have an eye there but extrapolating the numbers of destroyed Abram’s in comparison with the total I would say that minimum half the armed vehicles of Ukraine have been destroyed.
Basically half of what it was supplied has burnt.
So probably what was before has burnt even in greater quantities.

In 2022 February Ukraine has a very big army, and with the capability of inmediately recruit very trained and motivated people
Since around summer 2022 Ukriane have been permanently loosing capabilities

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Ukrainian army has greater capabilities than 2 years ago the same way Wehrmacht was stronger in 1945 than in September 1939. They had twice the number of soldiers. Their equipment was more advanced - tanks had bigger guns, planes flew faster, u-boots sailed farther and quieter... Looking at the dry numbers of German forces in a vacuum, 1945 Germany must clearly be winning. Until you take into account their opposition...

Jiang ZeminFanboy said:

I haven't been following the conflict much, but are you sure the offensive is unexpected? I've been hearing for the last few months that there is spotted A big new Russian army in the northeast and there is possibility of the attack.

Click to expand...

Yeah it's not unexpected

Weeb Union has been talking about this buildup and upcoming offensive for weeks

Things just got really interesting

Despite several successful interceptions by Russian air defense, a Tochka-U rocket hits an apartment building in Belgorod. Ironically, the rocket came from the Volchansk direction, where a battle for the city is developing. At least five people were killed.


LMURs hits shelters used by Ukrainian troops on the right side of the Dniepr.


In the area of responsibility of Group Vostok, the 500th FAB with UMPK of the SMO is dropped.


Ukrainian Strela-10 burning and photographed from the Ukrainian perspective. 8th of this system visually confirmed destroyed for this year.


Ukrainian drone operators spotted in this house used as a makeshift base. The house is hit by Russian FPV drones.


M777 gets Krasnopoled by the 238th Brigade. Avdeyevka Ocheretino direction.


Ukrainian Buk system gets hit possibly by a Tornado-S.


Ukrainian MLRS that fired at Belgorod gets hit by Russian Uragan MLRS.


Another Ukrainian Buk hit by Iskander/Tornado-S. These Buks being destroyed lately, chances are high they are Franken Buks, meaning Buks adapted to use the AIM-7 Sparrow missile.


Grads firing in support of the Group Center of forces.


Ukrainian SPG gets hit by Lancet from the 238th.


Ukrainian positions in Blahodatne gets FAB'ed.


Bridge at Stary Saltov gets hit presumably by an X-38ML, cutting off this logistics artery.


One of Ukraine's handful of 2S22 Bogdan SPGs gets destroyed by Lancet in the Kharkhiv front. Another is spotted destroyed soon enough.


A Franken Buk taken out by Lancet. A good example of one seen from drone's POV. The string of Ukrainian AD systems being destroyed lately indicates shift of deployment of AD from major cities protecting infrastructure from Gerans and cruise missiles, to defending deployment centers from FAB strikes behind the front lines. This points to terrific casualties the FABs are causing to force you to move AD systems closer to the front.

sndef888 said:

Yeah it's not unexpected

Weeb Union has been talking about this buildup and upcoming offensive for weeks

Things just got really interesting

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Atacms/Himars should have been used intensively on these buildup... didn't hear a lot about that but they still had enough for strikes on Belgorov civilians.