The War in the Ukraine

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The point is that the entire city is one big fortification, capable of hosting a garrison of immense strength.
If the Ukrainians post 50,000, mostly lightly armed, soldiers there, then surely Russia will need several times more troops to capture the city, with massive amounts of heavy equipment.
Defenders wouldn't just have the advantage of immense protection, but also the ability to move unhindered within the city, countering any assault and mustering local superiority in any area of the frontline. And the potential of outside attacks the siege would put immense requirements for securing the 90 km frontline needed for an encirclement.

We're not talking about Mariupol, which was lightly defended and easily cut off without much resistance. Nor are we talking about Gaza, which is similar in scope, but could be easily divided in sectors and with isolated defenders who has mostly basic light weapons and zero heavy weapons, plus no real outside support. Kharkiv is another type of beast entirely, with far more sturdy buildings than Gaza, a circular structure - preventing sectoring - well armed defenders, very difficult to cut off and with the potential for massive outside support.

The defensive position is such a great force multiplier, trying to surround it would quickly erode any Russian advantage across the front line. I'd think the only way of taking Kharkiv, unless the Russians want to raze all of it, is essentially to overwhelm Ukraine across the entire front, forcing them to shorten it.
Like I already said. Battle of Aleppo.
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It was a 2.5 million people city with reinforced concrete buildings.
Aleppo is a bigger city than Kharkiv.

The Syrian government side attacked with like twice the troops and won.

The Russians will just siege the place. It is as simple as that. Like in Aleppo whoever wants to leave will be sent by bus out of the place. Whoever wants to stay will have to starve.
 

B777LR

Junior Member
Registered Member
A single launcher and a single radar in the middle of a clearing is a decoy!!!

Breaking news: Radars and surface to air missiles have to be placed in a clearing, lest the trees get in the way.

The Patriot system can be split up into as few as 3 vehicles and still remain functional, supposedly called "Assault mode". The Ukrainians used this to great effect to ambush a number of Su-34s earlier this year. You can't draw any conclusions from the small formation.
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
I understand the nuances of attacking a city against a well armed force.

The question is, does Ukraine has such force any more?
Can they move 50k troops from Donbass front and commit them to defend Kharkov?
Can they reduce their ammo expenditure in Donbass in order to supply the Kharkov group with ammunition?

Since Russia is introducing new troops whatever Ukraine does loose their grip in both fronts.

But even if Ukraine would commit 50k not very well armed troops to defend Kharkov, nothing stop Russia for encircling it. They encircled Kiev with around 20k..
Then is simply question of time that the garrison in the city gives up, without supply of ammo, fuel and food.

At the time the strategy didn’t work but the Ukrainian army was in full force then, and not in the depleted state it is now.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter if they defend Kharkov and lose Kramatorsk and sloviansk or they hold the line in the Donbass and Kharkov gets encircled.

A siege of Kharkov anyway already achieves most of the benefits of a full capture. It will demoralise the Ukrainians, deprive them of the military industrial production of the city, deprive them of the manpower pool that can be recruited from there etc It would also demonstrate that Ukraine is losing despite just having received a massive aid package
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just a loose encirclement with troops scattered he and there, taking the occasional shots at every entry/exit in the city is enough to deal a huge blow to the national comprehensive power of Ukraine.

Russia committing to capture the whole city immediately would be extremely costly, so I don't see them doing it in this case (yet)
 

Proton

Junior Member
Registered Member
I understand the nuances of attacking a city against a well armed force.

The question is, does Ukraine has such force any more?
Can they move 50k troops from Donbass front and commit them to defend Kharkov?
Can they reduce their ammo expenditure in Donbass in order to supply the Kharkov group with ammunition?

Since Russia is introducing new troops whatever Ukraine does loose their grip in both fronts.

But even if Ukraine would commit 50k not very well armed troops to defend Kharkov, nothing stop Russia for encircling it. They encircled Kiev with around 20k..
Then is simply question of time that the garrison in the city gives up, without supply of ammo, fuel and food.

At the time the strategy didn’t work but the Ukrainian army was in full force then, and not in the depleted state it is now.

I think it's wrong to see the Ukrainian army as weaker than 2022, the size is far larger and their capabilities are much greater in many aspects. Problem is the Russian army is also far stronger than in 2022 and Ukraine is struggling to keep up. But if Russia lets Ukraine use Kharkiv as a giant force multiplier they can suddenly be even again. To hold a city you mostly need light weapons, as the defender can remain well protected most of the time.

They also weren't anywhere close to encircling Kiev, only actually establishing themselves outside the forest areas covering the northern flanks of Kiev.

Like I already said. Battle of Aleppo.
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It was a 2.5 million people city with reinforced concrete buildings.
Aleppo is a bigger city than Kharkiv.

The Syrian government side attacked with like twice the troops and won.

The Russians will just siege the place. It is as simple as that. Like in Aleppo whoever wants to leave will be sent by bus out of the place. Whoever wants to stay will have to starve.
Aleppo was more of the FSA (et al) besieging the SAA, at least for the first 2 years. Until the SAA gained momentum and managed to encircle the FSA-part by advancing a few kilometers.
The SAA was also in disarray when FSA first gained control of half the city, perhaps comparable to the Ukrainian army in spring 2022, before the front lines where established and reserves had been mobilized.
 

Tootensky

Junior Member
Registered Member
Just a loose encirclement with troops scattered he and there, taking the occasional shots at every entry/exit in the city is enough to deal a huge blow to the national comprehensive power of Ukraine.

Russia committing to capture the whole city immediately would be extremely costly, so I don't see them doing it in this case (yet)
IMO an attempt at Kharkov represents something important: willingness by Russia to move beyond the original 4 annexed provinces.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
New recognition symbol on Russian army has shown up like "Z", "V", etc,.

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Bridges across the Seversk Donetsk river getting destroyed by X-38ML missiles and lased by Orlans.

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LMUR strike on another T-72 tank.

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Ukrainian howitzer gets Krasnopoled from the Center Group.

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Lancet takes out a howitzer at Pokaliane near the border.

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Krab SPG gets taken out by Lancet.

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M119 or M777 howitzer gets taken out by an M46 130mm gun from the 238th Artillery Brigade.

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2S1 Gvozdika of the AFU taken out by counterbattery from the 238th.

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Ukrainian D-20 howitzer taken out by Lancet in the Kharkhiv region.

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Lancet takes out a Maxxpro in Chasiv Yar by the 98th VDV.

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T-64BV destroyed in the Kharkhiv region.

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Captured T-72AV.

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FAB-250 with UMPK strikes Urozhayne.

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Lancet takes out a T-72 and a Grad MLRS.

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Pzh2000 manages to shoot one shot before being hit by a Lancet.

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Masked towed howitzer hit by Lancet near the border.

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Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Footage of the impact of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-52" on the Ukrainian Supacat HMT air defense system, British production. The Supacat HMT air defense system was quickly developed in the UK to quickly equip the Ukrainian army. The air defense system is equipped with AIM-132 ASRAAM missiles with a flight range of up to 20 km. As a result of the Lancet drone strike, a strong fire started in the Supacat HMT air defense system, completely destroying the launcher.

 

blackjack21

Junior Member
Registered Member
  • They punched a big hole in the border and seem to be expanding the offensive horizontally towards Sumy.
  • Everything on the NATO side seems to indicate poor preparedness and panic; this was completely unexpected and the Ukrainians are getting overrun in many locations.
  • The number of forces involved in the offensive has grown significantly in the past 24 hours.
  • A dam and several key bridges in the area have been destroyed.
  • Ukraine is rushing reinforcements to the area and seem to be panicking; a lot of these reinforcements are simply traveling unprotected and out in the open, leading to many systems being interdicted.
  • Bradleys have been spotted in one of the northern flashpoint villages but there were reports that these reinforcements are already being withdrawn.
  • Most forces defending these villages are lightly equipped as the heavy units are fighting further in the east.
  • Krymky is still a complete dumpster fire.
This is being characterized as one of the worst days for Ukraine in the war so far. If this grows into a full offensive we might very well see things unravel in the coming weeks.

The moral of the story? To everyone's shock, the tried and true method of advertising your offensives with Marvel-style movie trailers turns out to be less effective than striking hard when no one expects you to. Who'd have thought?
 
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