Sorry about the late reply. A lot of personal stuff going on.
I understand you are cautious but let’s be real since Phase 2 started Russia has had the momentum in the Donbas. And I get there is plenty of fight left but let’s be realistic you think the Ukrainian grouping in Donbas can handle this level of intensive shelling, aerial and missile bombardment for another 45-60 days? They are just starting to buckle. We are seeing defensive positions simply being given up. They are taking horrific loses.
I am being cautious because from my POV the war should have been over a looooong time ago. The Russians ought to have stomped the Ukrainians into the ground. They have not. In over 100 days of war, the Russians have captured only 20% (+/-) of Ukraine.
I am also quite aware of the morale of the Ukrainian side. It's not buckling. At least not yet.
As for Russian momentum? They've moved the front a few tens of kilometers. In a month.
We have had video after video of Ukrainian soldiers refusing to fight because they are getting massacred.
And we have report after report of Russian soldier killing officers, refusing to fight, resigning and/or going AWOL.
Be cautious with the news and data being posted. Be careful about believing all that you want to rather than what appears to be the case.
Right now, we've heard the Russians are pouring everything into Severodonetsk and the city! is! their's! Huzzah!
Wait?!
The Ukrainians are now launching an offensive to retake the city and the Russians are getting butchered because it was a trap.
Who do we believe? I don't believe either. I'll wait and see.
We will know what is going on in a few days. Hence, caution.