The War in the Ukraine

Janiz

Senior Member
If anyone's interest how the ride of the infamous (they are - or were - responsible for the
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) 64th Motor Rifle Brigade (and 35th Army as well) ended in Ukraine you can read this first hand report translated to English:
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Spoilers:
by early June the numbers of combat-ready infantry in certain motorised brigade battalions of the army successfully reached 12-15 people (64th brigade),
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
This war on rocks article can be a good illustration of some of the Russian military's plight in Ukraine. The Russian military has had to use both conscripts and contract soldiers in order to cut costs. In a full-scale war against NATO, conscripts and contract soldiers could have been sent together. But because the war with Ukraine is a "special military operation," there is no legal way to send these conscripts, resulting in a shortage of Russian ground forces and a reduction in their capabilities.

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Typical US bollocks commentary. Of course Russia cannot have the same force structure as the US army. Russia has enemies right on its border. Not like the US which can safely use contract troops on foreign conflicts safe from blowback being an ocean away from the conflict zone. Russia's enemies in Europe alone have a much larger manpower pool than Russia, and a larger economic footprint, there is no way to solve that military economic calculus problem without using conscription.
Conscripts need to be part of the Russian force structure concept from the get go. Not a mere afterthought. Also, because of that, like with all conscript armies even mixed ones, any lack of tactical finesse of individual soldiers needs to be compensated with superior officer training at the operational level. For this Russia has much deeper officer training courses and schools than the US. Their officer pool is much larger. This allows quickly ballooning the army size with conscripts in case of full blown conflict without them running around like headless chickens without proper supervision.

Rosgvardia and OMON are not being used for frontline combat. They are being used to police occupied areas. They are in places like Kherson and Melitopol. Not fighting on the front. They are being used to clear those areas of possible insurgents, saboteurs, and partisans left behind by the Ukrainians.

The Donbass militia is operating in the front lines to clear up their own territory for rather obvious reasons. This gives them more political legitimacy when it comes the time to decide their own political future. And a lot of them probably have longstanding grievances with Ukrainian government forces and are willingly going into the fight. Once the fight moves outside the Donbass area it remains to be seen how things will proceed.

I assume Russia will eventually increase the scope of conscription. They will likely increase the amount of conscripts each year in the future and perhaps even increase conscription time to closer to what it was in Soviet times now that the whole of NATO is a possible enemy in the future. The time when the force structure was focused on fighting insurgents or peacekeeping missions abroad is long gone.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Typical US bollocks commentary. Of course Russia cannot have the same force structure as the US army. Russia has enemies right on its border. Not like the US which can safely use contract troops on foreign conflicts safe from blowback being an ocean away from the conflict zone. Russia's enemies in Europe alone have a much larger manpower pool than Russia, and a larger economic footprint, there is no way to solve that military economic calculus problem without using conscription.
Conscripts need to be part of the Russian force structure concept from the get go. Not a mere afterthought. Also, because of that, like with all conscript armies even mixed ones, any lack of tactical finesse of individual soldiers needs to be compensated with superior officer training at the operational level. For this Russia has much deeper officer training courses and schools than the US. Their officer pool is much larger. This allows quickly ballooning the army size with conscripts in case of full blown conflict without them running around like headless chickens without proper supervision.

Rosgvardia and OMON are not being used for frontline combat. They are being used to police occupied areas. They are in places like Kherson and Melitopol. Not fighting on the front. They are being used to clear those areas of possible insurgents, saboteurs, and partisans left behind by the Ukrainians.

The Donbass militia is operating in the front lines to clear up their own territory for rather obvious reasons. This gives them more political legitimacy when it comes the time to decide their own political future. And a lot of them probably have longstanding grievances with Ukrainian government forces and are willingly going into the fight. Once the fight moves outside the Donbass area it remains to be seen how things will proceed.

I assume Russia will eventually increase the scope of conscription. They will likely increase the amount of conscripts each year in the future and perhaps even increase conscription time to closer to what it was in Soviet times now that the whole of NATO is a possible enemy in the future. The time when the force structure was focused on fighting insurgents or peacekeeping missions abroad is long gone.
I think the WOTR commentary by Kofman was quite illuminating. Russian BTGs by design depend on conscripts to fill in the light infantry ranks. Because they declared a special operation and not war, conscripts were not allowed to fight in Ukraine and the BTGs were sent into combat in degraded form. Most of those IFVs never had a full complement of dismountable infantry. Basically, the Russians shot themselves in the foot. No wonder people like Strelkov are fuming.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia has about 80 BTGs in reserve right now. US defense intelligence has reported about this since Phase 2 started. They are sitting around waiting for the order to attack. What’s being used for the ground fighting right now is a combo of spec ops, Chechen volunteers, Wagner group volunteers, DPR/LPR fighters. It appeared Russian soldiers are just providing artillery support and some armored support. And Russia is slowly building up forces in Kherson. The issue with Russia back in Fed and March was they open d to many fronts with too few men, with little air, artillery and missile support. They stretched themselves to thin. The idea was to force a collapse of the Kiev regime. When the Ukrainians bravely defended their positions the plan B was to focus on the Donbas and annihilate the most battle hardened group of Ukrainian fighters. Russia has a bunch of fighters in reserve waiting. My best hypothesis is that Russia is waiting for the Donbas pocket collapse then order the reserves to attack. Keep in mind the Donbas area has lots of highly defensive fortifications. It is not smart to send all them to attack these positions risking high casualties. So they are grinding them. Utilizing heavy artillery, missiles and aerial bombardment to break these defenses to pieces. Then not advance past their supply lines. Only advance after sufficient artillery bombardment. The Ukrainian defense is starting to buckle. They cannot handle this level of border t for 45-60 days. It’s like the battle of Verdun. Plus Ukraine has no capability to launch an effective counter offensive. Not to mention they have no air cover for an offensive in the frost place. So they are stuck in static defense. Either they retreat to the west or stand and fight. The leadership is having them stand and fight which will lead to the encirclement and annihaltion of the Ukraine Donbas grouping. Russia is in cruise control.
Most likely, the Russians are not able to provide for the logistics of a major offensive in Donbass while also another one elsewhere. Once they finish with Donbass, they have many options.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I think the WOTR commentary by Kofman was quite illuminating. Russian BTGs by design depend on conscripts to fill in the light infantry ranks. Because they declared a special operation and not war, conscripts were not allowed to fight in Ukraine and the BTGs were sent into combat in degraded form. Most of those IFVs never had a full complement of dismountable infantry. Basically, the Russians shot themselves in the foot. No wonder people like Strelkov are fuming.
He makes a lot of claims which are BS. Like that the problem of the VDV at Gostomel was lack of infantry. It wasn't. It was lack of equipment to counter Ukrainian artillery strikes on the dismounted infantry the Russians dropped near the airport. Russia failed to land the VDV's vehicles with the air drop. To a degree the Russians countered this issue with air support and that worked for the most part. You can tell this by the fact the Ukrainians failed to completely destroy those VDV forces and in fact the VDV were later reinforced successfully with armored vehicles coming from Belarus. Those dismounted VDV forces had to do a cat and mouse game with the Ukrainian forces for the first 24-36h until their vehicles came. But Ukraine never managed to destroy them even when Ukraine sent a mechanized unit against them from Kiev.

Infantry only became an issue when the war moved from being a war of movement to one of static combat. But when that happened they had the Chechens and PMCs to supply extra infantry. They conquered Mariupol. A city with over 400k people.
 

Corona

Junior Member
Registered Member
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