The War in the Ukraine

Russian assault at Novomykhailivka was destroyed by Ukraine
Looks like it will cost the Russians another division worth of men and armored vehicles to take several miles of land just like it did in Avdiivka. They also lost a division worth of men and armored vehicles trying to take Vuhledar which they failed to do. Unbelievable.

SolarWarden said:

Russian assault at Novomykhailivka was destroyed by Ukraine

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762443582407946428

Looks like it will cost the Russians another division worth of men and armored vehicles to take several miles of land just like it did in Avdiivka. They also lost a division worth of men and armored vehicles trying to take Vuhledar which they failed to do. Unbelievable.

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i am confused you are showing one vehicle with smoke and the others don't look destroyed? Even Tam has the courtesy of showing destroyed vehicles. Why are the Russians only advancing and they are not?

Lol the smoke is from smoke grenades, typically thrown by vehicles under fire. I don't see a single vehicle there that passes for destroyed. Most if not all have intact anti drone covers over the vehicles. Rather the lack of counter artillery and FPV drones from the Ukrainian side is telling. The footage is also old, as the Russians are well within Novomikhailovka for some time now.

On other stuff.

Various Ukrainian vehicles abandoned in Pobjeda. One of the Leopards was abandoned without any hostile action; it fell into and got stuck in a ditch. The other Leopard had Kontakt ERA but it didn't work well enough. The others are M113 and Italian VTLM.


FABs dropped on Chasiv Yar.


AFU BRDM hit by Lancet while on the move and transporting. Donetsk region.


AFU trying to set new communication posts after being cut off but FPV drones from the 238th Brigade took them out.


LMUR hit on a Ukrainian temporary base in Sadovaya.


Former Ukrainian gunboat now formally part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.


Ukrainian vehicle on the assault towards Russian positions hits a mine.

This is interesting timing. China just announced special representative will be visiting Russia, EU HQ, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France to seek a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.

Temstar said:

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This is interesting timing. China just announced special representative will be visiting Russia, EU HQ, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France to seek a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.

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Interesting they are leaving the UK out of it, too. I guess for obvious reasons just like the US.

ODAB-1500 with UMPK used on Ukrainian targets in the Kurakhovsky direction. ODABs are thermobaric bombs.


M113 knocked out by the 255th Regiment.


Krasnopol from Akasya hits a Ukrainian field ammo depot.


Krasnopol from the 238th Brigade hits Ukrainian positions in high rises in Georgievka. These places are used as observation and sniper posts; UAV bases, communications such as Starlink.


Smelchak from a Tyulpan hits a Ukrainian position towards Ugledar.


LMUR hits a house used by the AFU in Malinovka, Zaporozhye. The house has a Starlink array and provides internet communication with the entire area.


Arrival of FAB-UMPK in Berislav and strikes at Tyaginka, Kherson.


Geran arrivals in Odessa again.


Lancet from the 238th takes out a MSTA-B howitzer of the AFU.


Fighting as the Russians reach the center of Orlivka where there is a school in it.


ATGM from the 14th SPN Brigade hits a Ukrainian position.


Operating from inside a 2S41 Drok. This is an 82mm self propelled mortar using a Typhoon chassis.


Ukrainian Su-27 fires an AGM-88. The missile has to be fired from a low height with an upward trajectory that will cut it's range, otherwise the jet will be exposed and shot down by air defense.


Tunguska blasts away at Ukrainian UAVs.


Compilation of Lancet attacks by the 106th Brigade of the VDV.


CAESAR gets taken out by Lancet.

Temstar said:

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This is interesting timing. China just announced special representative will be visiting Russia, EU HQ, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France to seek a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.

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Good initiative but doomed.

Diplomatic solution is impossible where there is no trust at all from one side to the others.

Santamaria said:

Good initiative but doomed.

Diplomatic solution is impossible where there is no trust at all from one side to the others.

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Seems more like an attempt to drive a wedge between the EU and non-EU parts of NATO.

Russia is winning, so it’s in no mood to stop. Historically conflicts have only ended in stalemate after stalemate became intractable on the battlefield and both sides became too exhausted to have any hope of achieving total victory.

The only exceptions are where very limited scope military operations have been launched and achieved their intended objectives.

While the Russians have achieve many of their stated objectives for the SMO, and the very fact that it is called a SMO instead of a war gives some hopes to a negotiated settlement, the timing seems premature. The Russians have invested too much blood and treasure into this endeavour already to unilaterally call it quits while there is so much more to be gained on the battlefield, especially now when it is just starting to looks like the Ukrainians are collapsing on the battlefield.

If I was to guess, this Chinese initiative is most likely to be a play on the prisoners’ dilemma game theory. Where the Chinese will go to the EU and ask them just how much they are prepared to bet that America will not cut its losses and wash its hands off Ukraine, either as Biden’s electioneering Hail Mary in the run up to November, or as a result of a second Trump Presidency.

The alternative is a Chinese mediated and guaranteed series of political and security guarantees from Russia on what it will and will not do after total annexation of Ukraine if the EU pulls all support to Ukraine first. That is what I am expecting the Chinese to be offering the EU. The EU will almost certainly say no, but the option will remain and play on their minds as things get worse and harder in the coming months and maybe even years.

Said to be the knockout of the first Abrams attributed to FPV drone. Looking at the video, the tank was instead wiped by a Krasnopol (if 152mm) or Kitolov-2 (if 122mm or 120mm) strike, the green and yellow targeting reticles is from an Orlan lasing the target, right at the moment when you see it hit. Yet to see any video of ATGM, FPV drone or Lancet strike of which all three would be easy to identify and differentiate.


Krasnogorovka is now in the midst of battle. FAB-1500 with UMPK hits the brick factory within. The industrial sector of the town would have been fortified with Ukrainian positions.


Ukrainian ammo depot in Kramatorsk hit by Krasnopol.


Upyr drone hits a Bradley.


Another Gvozdika SPG taken out by Lancet.


First shots of the new Revival or Renaissance MLRS which combines the Agriculture or Zemledelie MLRS remote mining system with a modular modification that allows it to use different MLRS cartridges like the one that uses 220mm Uragan rockets or the ones that use TOS-1A and TOS-2 rockets.


2S41 Drok, an 82mm self propelled mortar on the Typhoon chassis. This confirms the new type is now in operational use within the SMO. Mortars are so underrated in this conflict.


FAB or ODAB with UMPK hits Kurakhovsky.


ODAB with UMPK hits Kurahovo.


Piece of RBC-500 cluster bomb with UMPK found by Ukrainians.


M113s getting knocked out by the 255th Regiment.


Ukrainian field depot hit by Krasnopol fired from Akasya.


Krasnopol from the 238th Brigade hitting Ukrainian positions in Georgievka.


Ukrainian special operations mission to land in Crimea turns ugly. Will only show the map where it's located instead of the pictures of the boats with casualties. Two of the boats sank. The Ukrainian special forces were met by Russian special forces of the Russian Navy.


Sever-V detachment hunts to Ukrainian tanks at Chasiv Yar. Tanks are tracked to their hanger lairs before hit by strikes, likely Krasnopols on this one.


The Leopard wunderwaffen is a big disappointment writes German publication. At least 20 tanks were destroyed, 7 in Rabotino alone. Leopards was confirmed knocked out by T-72 HE rounds without armor penetration.


Lancet hit on a Patriot system. This was done by infiltrators or saboteurs.


Ukrainian observation post on the tower of Mine no, 3 in Ugledar gets struck. This looks like an Orlan lasing so likely another Krasnopol strike.


Netherlands ordered nine 155mm wheeled DITA SPG from the Czechs to be transferred to Ukraine. Cool looking vehicles although we know their eventual fate would end up being Lancet targets.


Good old two barrel shotgun is used on FPV drones.