The War in the Ukraine

Temstar said:

Lancet from the telegram groups I hang out in and got the news from.
Ayi is saying he's source says FPV.

Update, new picture:
View attachment 125910

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That looks like a DJI RC Pro controller for what it's worth

Santamaria said:

It only seems to me or Russians have increased a lot the usage of Tornado S.
In the first part of the war they didn’t appear at all, or they weren’t noticed.

Probably result of the expansion of Russian military budget and industry. Providing more rockets and also more surveillance drones

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Remind you that Russian Telegram channels continuously confuse both Iskander and Tornado-S. There is quite a bit of overlap in the two rockets and seeing one hit a target doesn't give you a means to identify one or the other. It's possible that Iskander hits in the past may have been Tornado-S instead. A UAV looking at an explosion cannot guess which rockets are used or for that matter if FAB or KAB or Kh-59 or Kh-38 or Grom is used. On top of all these, Russia may have already received North Korean and Iranian ballistic rockets that are the Iskander's analogs.

I'm more inclined that if a target has a lower value or isn't infrastructure related, that's it's Tornado-S. For example, a vehicle hanger, ammo depot, a brigade headquarters or a high priority air defense system. On the other hand, if a missile busts a hotel allegedly full of foreign mercenaries, I'm more inclined that it's Iskander.

One reason for the increased usage of Tornado-S is the Uragan-1M, which coincidentally and in good timing, entered service recently. The MLRS cartridges can be swapped between 220mm and 300mm, the latter being the rockets for Smerch and Tornado-S. Not only does it look like it's cheaper to make, but it's smaller, lighter and more mobile than the Smerch launcher.

Winged FABs arriving.


First takeout of the Swedish Archer SPG by Lancet.


2S1 Gvozdika taken out by Krasnopol.


Another P-18 Malachite radar taken out by an X-35 antiship missile, now with adapted circuitry to take out ground targets.


Humvee previously destroyed by a Lancet.


French CAESAR SPG taken out by Lancet.


Polish Krab gets taken out by counterbattery or Krasnopol. It's been a field day against Ukrainian artillery.


Downing another Baba Yaga.


Fierce fighting in Ivanoske/Ivanovo/Krasnoe as the Russians advance.


Captured Bradley was pierced with 30mm shells. Likely it was in a fight with BMPs and got knocked out.

Looks like there are more and more western origin SPGs being knocked out regularly. Last year it was rare to see Cesar knocked out, but now we have them hit about 1/week and now Archer. Probably the ammo supply of USSR caliber weapons is too low to sustain front line operations.

A little bit of witchhunt happening for hardcore pro-Ukraine people in US government. Could be the start of laying groundwork for a pull out.

supersnoop said:

Looks like there are more and more western origin SPGs being knocked out regularly. Last year it was rare to see Cesar knocked out, but now we have them hit about 1/week and now Archer. Probably the ammo supply of USSR caliber weapons is too low to sustain front line operations.

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There are longer range Supercam spotting drones, and Lancet strike drones. And way more of them.

supersnoop said:

Looks like there are more and more western origin SPGs being knocked out regularly. Last year it was rare to see Cesar knocked out, but now we have them hit about 1/week and now Archer. Probably the ammo supply of USSR caliber weapons is too low to sustain front line operations.

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Attrition would have killed off a lot of the legacy Soviet stuff, especially the towed pieces. I suspect that’s as much of an issue as ammo availability, but it’s just better to cry about low ammo rather than low barrel count as low ammo makes the Ukrainians seem heroic whereas crying about losing most of its artillery hits too close to the reality than Ukraine is loosing.

Ukraine no longer being able to mount effectively offensives also helps to free up Russian drones from defensive operations to go hunting for targets deeper in the Ukrainian rear.

plawolf said:

Attrition would have killed off a lot of the legacy Soviet stuff, especially the towed pieces. I suspect that’s as much of an issue as ammo availability, but it’s just better to cry about low ammo rather than low barrel count as low ammo makes the Ukrainians seem heroic whereas crying about losing most of its artillery hits too close to the reality than Ukraine is loosing.

Ukraine no longer being able to mount effectively offensives also helps to free up Russian drones from defensive operations to go hunting for targets deeper in the Ukrainian rear.

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The moment they lose offensive capability they also lose defense. Ultimately personnel shortage and ammo shortage affect both.

Tam said:

One reason for the increased usage of Tornado-S is the Uragan-1M, which coincidentally and in good timing, entered service recently. The MLRS cartridges can be swapped between 220mm and 300mm, the latter being the rockets for Smerch and Tornado-S. Not only does it look like it's cheaper to make, but it's smaller, lighter and more mobile than the Smerch launcher.

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Uragan-1M entered service a long while ago, and was largely discontinued after supplying just a couple of dozen of them or so.
Before the war, Russia planned to drop 220mm caliber entirely - decision which has proven itself to be...short-sighted and was hastily reversed.

Now it even turned into a pitiful misery - because old Uragans have proven themselves very useful, Russia procures new chassis for them... i.e. most of the price of an actual Uragan-1m unit, just without the capability.
But even that is better than the old twin-engined unsustainable monster, or no corps-level MLRS at all. Ukrainians do the same.

Starting the day with a PzH-2000 getting destroyed in a counterbattery exchange.


Chasiv Yar getting FAB'ed. Probably an ammo depot somewhere there. By the 98th VDV.


Ukrainian tank gets taken out by Lancet in Chasiv Yar. By the 98th VDV.


Stepove under Russian control. The flag of the Black Hussars is raised over the village. Same special forces unit that bagged the first Abrams. The 1453rd Regiment also raised it's flag.


Vehicle hangers used by the AFU gets artillery strikes. One BMP and one tank spotted entering the hangers. By Sever-V.


MSTA-B of the AFU gets knocked out by Lancet. From the 238th Artillery Brigade. This unit is operating in the Georgievka area.


Ukrainian BMP gets hit by antitank mine.


Desertcross 1000-3 in Avdeyevka.


North Korea delivered 6,700 containers to Russia, which may contain about 3 million 152mm shells, according by the South Korean Defense Minister.


While Ukraine gets only one third of the 1 million shells promised by the EU.


Grad arrivals against the 82nd Brigade of the AFU.


Communication tower used by the AFU taken out by FPV drone.


Hangers with AFU equipment gets hit in Katerinovka.