The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog said:

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Even with necromency powers, Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov got kicked from his position of commander of the Black sea fleet. No kidding, Russian navy is such a continuous wreck show in Ukraine that some change need to be done, and maybe more than just switch the commander. We will see.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758095075769209075

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I suppose this is necessary because someone has to be blamed but I don't think the commander is really the blamer.

Black Sea fleet is the weakest oldest of all russian fleets, all cool staff of Russia in recent years I can remember has gone to the northern or pacific fleet.

And the black sea is relatively small. With all anti naval drones available by Ukraine, as well as intel support from 5 eyes, satellite images... it has to think that a different commander will change things unless his decision is to move all ships to Rostov and don't make any patrol.

If ships has to move to/from Sevastopol or patrol around Crimea they are going to be targeted and I dont think nothing can be done about it.

To stop it the only option is to take Odessa by land

Not really. The fleets with most modern equipment are the Pacific and Black Sea Fleets.
The Northern Fleet mostly consists of outdated equipment. Except for the Project 22350 frigates most of it is pretty stale.

It is true that being in an enclosed sea causes difficulties. But they certainly could be doing more to prevent such incidents.

For example no surface boat will ever be faster than an aircraft. Why don't they just do air patrols in the ocean to spot and kill these sea drones? Why aren't the approaches to the port facilities covered with long endurance drones or something?

gelgoog said:

Not really. The fleets with most modern equipment are the Pacific and Black Sea Fleets.
The Northern Fleet mostly consists of outdated equipment. Except for the Project 22350 frigates most of it is pretty stale.

It is true that being in an enclosed sea causes difficulties. But they certainly could be doing more to prevent such incidents.

For example no surface boat will ever be faster than an aircraft. Why don't they just do air patrols in the ocean to spot and kill these sea drones? Why aren't the approaches to the port facilities covered with long endurance drones or something?

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But is is not Project 22350 the most advance Russian ship, and indeed the only one that is “top”
The one with zircons and S400 and all that stuff?

The Borei class submarines that are the other “top” addition to Russian navy are also in Northern and pacific (this is logical since it does not have sense a strategic sub in the Black Sea)

Maybe Black Sea fleet is receiving updates but not really good ones.

Anyway you are right, maybe there are more possibilities to support ships with air patrols.

But could be that the drones are not very visible in the radar, idk.

Is there data of where the ship was sunk? In which region of the sea I mean

View of the Avdiivka coke plant and another Czech Dana 77 SPG knocked out.


Belgorod shopping center hit by Ukrainian MLRS, confirmed RM-70 Vampire. Civilian casualties reported including children.

Clearly not a military target or even military industrial.

Dead Leopard on Rabotino as the Russians advance.


Attempted rotation by the 37th Marine Brigade of the AFU in Kherson rudely interrupted by a KUB strike. This type of drone was temporarily pulled out and now it's back on the frontline with an improved model.


Burning M113.


Damaged CV-90.


AFU M109 taken out by Russian counterbattery in Zaporozhye.


Lancet takes out a Ukrainian MT-LB with Zu-23-2 AA machine gun.


Ukrainian BMP gets taken out by ATGM.


Ukrainian mass surrender also gave up a lot of drones that will be useful later.


Only appeared in Google Earth, attack was last summer against an industrial repair center in Zaporozhye that repaired Krabs.


Supercam and Tahion UAVs production increased 10x for this year. New facilities, new hires.


Ukrainian UAV Jupiter Hunter shot down by the 39th MR Brigade.


Russians bombed AFU drone base at 'New York' village after tracing and tracking drone traffic.


Lancet takes out Strela-10. The Strela-10 also failed to take out the observing UAV. Admittedly I can't tell if this is a Strela-10 or similar looking Avenger.


Battle of the Cold War instruments as a 2S7 Pion of the RuAF takes out a 2S1 Gvozdika of the AFU.

gelgoog said:

Not really. The fleets with most modern equipment are the Pacific and Black Sea Fleets.
The Northern Fleet mostly consists of outdated equipment. Except for the Project 22350 frigates most of it is pretty stale.

It is true that being in an enclosed sea causes difficulties. But they certainly could be doing more to prevent such incidents.

For example no surface boat will ever be faster than an aircraft. Why don't they just do air patrols in the ocean to spot and kill these sea drones? Why aren't the approaches to the port facilities covered with long endurance drones or something?

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Russian airframes are already racking up huge amount of air time in this war, not much point expending such resources for vessels that are of limit utility in the overall conflict. If the ships remain close to Crimean ports at least they can provide point defense against the constant drone strikes in the peninsula.

Santamaria said:

But is is not Project 22350 the most advance Russian ship, and indeed the only one that is “top”
The one with zircons and S400 and all that stuff?

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Project 22350 has UKSK VLS for surface attack missiles. And it has naval Redut. You can think of it as a naval S-350.
In theory pretty much any UKSK VLS ship can launch the Zircon. This includes the Project 20385 corvettes and probably also the Buyan-M and Karakurt corvettes. The Yasen-M submarine as well. It is likely just a matter of adding a software update. Anything which can fire the Oniks can likely also fire the Zircon. At least in terms of physically being able to do it. This includes systems like Bastion-P.

But, yes, currently only Project 22350 is certified to carry the Zircon.

Santamaria said:

The Borei class submarines that are the other “top” addition to Russian navy are also in Northern and pacific (this is logical since it does not have sense a strategic sub in the Black Sea)

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Even in that case they only put the prototypes of the Borei and Borei-A in the Northern Fleet. The serially produced boats are all in the Pacific Fleet. In much larger numbers. The modern nuclear subs in the Northern Fleet are all a collection of prototypes.

Santamaria said:

Maybe Black Sea fleet is receiving updates but not really good ones.

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They got three Admiral Grigorovich frigates at a time the Northern Fleet only had two (now three). And they got six Project 636.3 diesel electric subs before any other fleet. Most of their missile launch corvettes have been replaced with Buyan-M and the Karakurt has been entering service as well. They also added the Project 22160 patrol ships to the fleet.

tankphobia said:

Russian airframes are already racking up huge amount of air time in this war, not much point expending such resources for vessels that are of limit utility in the overall conflict. If the ships remain close to Crimean ports at least they can provide point defense against the constant drone strikes in the peninsula.

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Russia lacks naval patrol aircraft. This is because they don't produce turboprop transport aircraft anymore. So the patrol aircraft they do have are based on ancient Il-18 turboprop airframes. But they do have some of those and this could be practice to see if the sensor suite is adequate or not.

its crazy that almost every minute right now updates are coming in on twitter in Avdeevka. apparenly Azov got thrown in and immediately chewed up by Russian forces. looks like Avdeevka front might collapse within days.

Looks like a major breakthrough is coming in the Avdeevka. Russian will likely rapidly push inward until it face the next fortification city. Which city would it be?

TK3600 said:

Looks like a major breakthrough is coming in the Avdeevka. Russian will likely rapidly push inward until it face the next fortification city. Which city would it be?

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The big deal are Sloviansk ans Kramatorsk in the north, but for that they need fire to take Chasov Yar.

Avdevka is important to stop bombing of Donetsk city and because it was a fortress city, but I don’t know how much effect will have overall

Looking the map the most important seems to be Kostiantynivka, that was another fortress city. Amd that will allow you to circle Chasov Yar.

For that you need to take Toresk

But it is difficult to know, Russia could decide to open new fronts in Kharkov

Santamaria said:

The big deal are Sloviansk ans Kramatorsk in the north, but for that they need fire to take Chasov Yar.

Avdevka is important to stop bombing of Donetsk city and because it was a fortress city, but I don’t know how much effect will have overall

Looking the map the most important seems to be Kostiantynivka, that was another fortress city. Amd that will allow you to circle Chasov Yar.

For that you need to take Toresk

But it is difficult to know, Russia could decide to open new fronts in Kharkov

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Do you think Russians will follow the road upward and toward Kostiantynivka?