The War in the Ukraine

Continuing with the previous theme of cheap, mass produced equipment coming into its own, GLSDB seems to be coming into play in Ukraine.

With a range of up to 150km and a unit cost as low as $40k, if procured in sufficient numbers could prove a large boon to Ukranian counter battery efforts and long range strike capabilities.

We also have the first two sighted HIMARS being returned to the US for repairs. One appears to have substances minor shrapnel damaged and there other one appears to have hit a mine.

antiterror13 said:

I know it won't happen ... very interesting if China had decided to support Russia with just low tech weapons and ammunitions. With the industrial scale China has, easily to get whatever Russia needs in 2-3 months

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Ironically, we have seen that Pakistan has supplied 122mm artillery shells to Ukraine.
These were developed with technical assistance from China since the 122mm guns of Pakistan are of Chinese origin. Otherwise their military is using mostly American/NATO standard calibres.

plawolf said:

But it would be a mistake to assume that just because China isn’t providing Russia with direct military assistance that it’s not helping Russia. The quantum leap Russian drones have been making since the start of the conflict is very likely to be underwritten by Chinese parts support at a minimum. A lot of the refurbished Russian tanks and IFVs and artillery may also end up performing better than expected thanks to unexpectedly high quality sights and fire control upgrades.

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China is mostly helping Russia by providing an economic lifeline, buying raw materials, providing consumer goods, but other than that it is pretty limited.

China has been pretty neutral because it continues to provide regular commercial access for Ukraine as well. It is a known fact that Ukraine is importing body armour, helmets, clothing, drone parts, NVG from China. Also dual-use goods like LFP power stations, cell phones/tablets, etc.

Huawei is still providing technical support to maintain the cell network, for most Chinese companies it is business as usual (as can be). Great Wall recently released the Ora EV in Ukraine despite being named a "Sponsor of War".

I dislike posting tweets, but this one raised a very interesting point:
I was puzzled why Ukraine would concentrate troops in places like Selidovo, thereby allowing mass casualty events like Russia's recent attack. The tweet postulates that the reason is to prevent desertion. Dispersing soldiers would allow them to just run off much more easily.

ZeEa5KPul said:

I dislike posting tweets, but this one raised a very interesting point:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1757659599333953851

I was puzzled why Ukraine would concentrate troops in places like Selidovo, thereby allowing mass casualty events like Russia's recent attack. The tweet postulates that the reason is to prevent desertion. Dispersing soldiers would allow them to just run off much more easily.

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This reply to your quoted tweet seems interesting too.

Soldier30 said:

Footage of an attack by Ukrainian naval drones on the Russian large landing ship Caesar Kunikov, Project 775, which we previously talked about. The attack at 6.15 am almost abeam Yalta was carried out by a Ukrainian unit called Group 13, equipped with MAGURA V5 maritime drones. It is unknown what purpose the landing ship Caesar Kunikov had, but at the moment, not a single ship in the world can repel a massive attack by sea drones. Putting this ship out to sea was quite a risky endeavor; unlike other ships of Project 775, it does not have AK-630 artillery mounts and has nothing to repel an attack with. Judging by the video, the ship tilted and capsized on one of its sides. According to the Ukrainian media, the ship "Caesar Kunikov" sank; Russian media do not confirm this.

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That ship was hit bad in March 2022 and got repaired. Now it look totalled for good or maybe it lays on his side in shallow water and will be salvaged ? Would be hardcore necromency.

supersnoop said:

China is mostly helping Russia by providing an economic lifeline, buying raw materials, providing consumer goods, but other than that it is pretty limited.

China has been pretty neutral because it continues to provide regular commercial access for Ukraine as well. It is a known fact that Ukraine is importing body armour, helmets, clothing, drone parts, NVG from China. Also dual-use goods like LFP power stations, cell phones/tablets, etc.

Huawei is still providing technical support to maintain the cell network, for most Chinese companies it is business as usual (as can be). Great Wall recently released the Ora EV in Ukraine despite being named a "Sponsor of War".

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This is mainly because Russia is winning, and because Russia didn’t consult Beijing about its intention to invade Ukraine.

Given that the Russians launched the war unilaterally, why should China go out of its way to assist them at the expense of its own companies and people’s livelihoods when the Russians are winning anyways? Especially since the Russians have not even asked for Chinese help.

China is also aware of Russian pride. If China was too enthusiastic in its offers of support, that might even be taken as a slight by the Russians.

That’s why Chinese assistance have been behind the scenes and low profile

However, it would be a grave mistake to think that China doesn’t have concrete contingency plans in place in the event the Russians suffer a serious reversal that they alone are unable to overturn conventionally. Or that China isn’t going to reasonably lengths to give itself maximum options and advantages should it chooses to change policy or take advantage of opportunities that may arise. Or that China is indeed the goody-two-shoes it presents itself as in world affairs.

China is above all else, pragmatic. It will not needlessly jump into wars of choice for lofty principles or ideals, but the flip side is that purely moral and academic arguments will not dissuade it from taking action to maximise its own national self interest should the right opportunity present itself.

tankphobia said:

I'm just surprised they are having them sit out of port alone after Ukranian USVs have proven so dangerous. Tbh the black sea fleet had not really done much this whole conflict other than lobbing cruise missiles occasionally, with the sinking of Moskva the area air defence capability of the fleet is basically nil.

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It is way less capable without Mosvka but not nil. They have two Admiral Grigorovich frigates with naval Buk. And one Karakurt with naval Pantsir. They have also containerized naval Tor which can be strapped onto a ship's helicopter pad if necessary.

Anyway missile air defenses would be of no help against drone boats. These are basically surfaced torpedos.

tankphobia said:

Continuing with the previous theme of cheap, mass produced equipment coming into its own, GLSDB seems to be coming into play in Ukraine.

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This is likely going to be a problem. A winged glide bomb can avoid air defenses to hit a target. In a straight line it also has more range than the GMLRS Ukraine used to use. This will be an intermediate capability between the GMLRS and the Storm Shadow/SCALP. The obvious counter would be wide area GPS jamming.

tankphobia said:

We also have the first two sighted HIMARS being returned to the US for repairs. One appears to have substances minor shrapnel damaged and there other one appears to have hit a mine.

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Yet if you believe NAFO claims no HIMARS was ever destroyed or damaged. Yeah right.

ZeEa5KPul said:

I dislike posting tweets, but this one raised a very interesting point:
...
I was puzzled why Ukraine would concentrate troops in places like Selidovo, thereby allowing mass casualty events like Russia's recent attack. The tweet postulates that the reason is to prevent desertion. Dispersing soldiers would allow them to just run off much more easily.

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The post talks about Russian drone recon 30 km from the front as if it is a big deal. That is hardly surprising. If you read about the Orlan and the Supercam drones they have way more range than that. Check this out. Supercam S450.

Max flight range 450 km. Video transmission range 100 km. 7h endurance.
And Supercam S350 was recently upgraded. It has more battery capacity and increased endurance.
The latest Supercam drones have range and loiter time competitive with the Orlan-10. Which is quite impressive since we are comparing an electric powered drone to a combustion engine powered drone. An electric powered drone is also way more silent i.e. stealthy. Of course to manage this you need a much larger drone.

The current line of work the Russians are doing is increasing the link range so the drones can transmit back to base HIMARS battery positions and things like that.

Burning in the Kursk area after a fuel facility was hit by Ukrainian drones.


Destroyed M113 somewhere in the front.


Lancet takes out of a disguised howitzer in the right bank of the Dniepr opposite Energodar, presumably an M777.


Lancet takes out a Stryker in the Zaporozhye region.


Ukrainian APC with six soldiers gets hit by a Kornet ATGM.


Another M777 gets taken out in Kherson by Lancet.


AFU infantry group in the right bank of Kherson hit by KUB.


Aftermath of destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 launcher.


Ukrainian positions in Berislav across the Dniepr under bombardment. Maybe this was undertaken by T-62s using indirect fire, which at this mode could range around 10km.


Maxxpro MRAP firing machine gun at Russian positions in Avdiivka. Claimed to be from the 3rd Azov Brigade.


Ukrainian troops retreat from their position as they were subjected to tank fire. Somewhere between Marinka and Novomikhailovka by the Tiger detachment of the 255th Regiment.


Russian tank towing a captured and recovered M113.


First proof of use of GLSDB with a range of 150km near Kremennaya. These are launched from HIMARS launchers and are difficult for air defense due to their small size. Maybe.


Captured Starlink by Russian volunteer formation Espanola.


Arena M portable EW system demonsrtated to Shoigu. These are meant to be installed on vehicles.

Even with necromency powers, Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov got kicked from his position of commander of the Black sea fleet. No kidding, Russian navy is such a continuous wreck show in Ukraine that some change need to be done, and maybe more than just switch the commander. We will see.

After so many defeats, the VMF decided to dismiss the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Viktor Sokolov, allegedly, Vice Admiral Sergey Mikhaylovich Pinchuk was appointed the new commander.