The War in the Ukraine

Let's wait and see guys. Jumping to "Ukraine's army is about to disintegrate" from Severodonetsk is about a day or has already fallen smacks of the very same thing you were (rightly) calling out early in the war with posting wildly pro Ukrainian tweets/fan boy links.

Both sides are suffering pretty badly right now. Logistics in and out of the pocket are not going to be good for the Ukrainians. And some Russian units are going to be pushed (for at time) up to and possibly past the breaking point. I totally believe some Ukrainians are losing morale in there. They need a break if nothing else. Likewise, some doofus of a Russian soldier might get ugly with a general when pushed past a certain point. Small sample sizes are dangerous to extrapolate from.

As for Himars, the US is providing some. Who knows how many. We will get to see how effective those are. It sounds like there more howitzers also going in the latest round and supposedly...


Let's see how true that ends up being. It could also be a balloon to see how Russia reacts.

MQ-1C's are bigger than the TB2s, though thus most likely have a larger thermal and radar signature making them easier to be picked off. These things evolved for the War on Weddings... I mean, the War on Terror, not a near-peer war.

The real advantage will probably be the fact that the Ukrainians won't really touch the thing and will be flown from some container in Western USA but with plausible deniability.

sheogorath said:

MQ-1C's are bigger than the TB2s, though thus most likely have a larger thermal and radar signature making them easier to be picked off. These things evolved for the War on Weddings... I mean, the War on Terror, not a near-peer war.

The real advantage will probably be the fact that the Ukrainians won't really touch the thing and will be flown from some container in Western USA but with plausible deniability.

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They'll probably be flown with recon pods too. It'll be the only way for "Ukraine" to get airborne eyes into the Donbass.

Damn, while no one was watching it looks like UAF is about to get themselves encircled in another pocket, this time at the Kharkiv front. The olde "use water as one arm of your pincer" trick from Art of War.

sheogorath said:

MQ-1C's are bigger than the TB2s, though thus most likely have a larger thermal and radar signature making them easier to be picked off.

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It will be interesting to see if they are taken down immediately. I don't see how they could be survivable in the environment, but if they do last, that would be an interesting data point in and of itself. Likewise, if they are downed immediately, that too would be an interesting data point.

sheogorath said:

The real advantage will probably be the fact that the Ukrainians won't really touch the thing and will be flown from some container in Western USA but with plausible deniability.

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And the small numbers would be to test how Russia reacts, much like the small amount of supplies initially from the West.

Temstar said:

Damn, while no one was watching it looks like UAF is about to get themselves encircled in another pocket, this time at the Kharkiv front.

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Smart move on the Russians part, if true. The push to Vovchansk was threatening the railhead across the border.

Depressing debunking of the MSM's line of the Ukrainians are doing well
Apparently there is a hierarchy of which units get the new stuff meaning the territorials get the antiques. As a consequence the territorials on the front line get targeted as the soft front by the Russians

MQ-1Cs aren't going to do much better than Bayraktars. They're both big slow turboprop powered flying objects which will show up on radar easily. They will be limited to one way suicide missions at best. I'm assuming America has got fed up paying Erdogan $5 million per Bayraktar when that money could be going to the MIC (even though TB-2s are WAY more cost effective).

The big problem would be that they could be piloted by Americans sat all the way in America. Just as a point of principle there's no way that should be allowed under any circumstances. If an American drone piloted by Americans drops bombs on Russian soldiers, it should be seen as a declaration of war.

Saying only 4 will be sold is a deliberate strategy. We all know they will keep respawning when they get shot down.

Look at all that missile that Black Sea Fleet is running out of, must be all those washing machine freshly looted.

Area in danger of being calibrated:

Here’s a list of what’s included in the latest batch of security assistance, according to the Pentagon:

• Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, and ammunition;
• Five counter-artillery radars;
• Two air surveillance radars;
• 1,000 Javelins and 50 Command Launch Units;
• 6,000 antiarmor weapons;
• 15,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery;
• Four Mi-17 helicopters;
• 15 tactical vehicles;
• Spare parts and equipment.

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Four? Really is this a serious thing?