The War in the Ukraine

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Tank to tank engagement. Ukrainian tank defending trench line somewhere in the Bogdanovka area near Bakhmut. BMD from the 98th VDZv Division hitting the AFU tank consecutively and then the Russian tank knocks it out.

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Ukraine looks to be losing the battle for ammunition and it's forces are being massively outshot by the Russians --- Business Insider

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TOS hitting Ukrainian positions in the Bogdanovka sector.

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Strela-10 of the VDV takes out a Leleka-100 UAV.

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Ukrainian concrete stronghold, gets taken out by a Krasnopol.

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Russian paratrooper poses with what appears to be a Nona-S 120mm self propelled mortar.

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Supercam working on the South Donetsk.

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In the Kherson area, temporary deployment point of the AFU gets worked at by FABs.

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Missile strikes at Balakley, aimed at temporary deployment points of the AFU and the Kraken brigade.

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Another Ukrainian landing boat gets taken out by FPV drone in the Dniepr.

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Geran drone strikes hitting Odessa once again.

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Kharkhiv loses power as a missile hits. More missile hits on the city.

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The tunnel used to get behind the Ukrainian lines in southern Avdiivka.

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Ukrainians under incendiary fire in the Bakhmut region.

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FriedButter

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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Military intelligence on Il-76 crash: Russia could use Ukrainian POWs as human shields​

Russia could have used Ukrainian prisoners of war as a human shield to transport ammunition and weapons for missile systems, Ukraine's military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov suggested on Jan. 25 when commenting on the crash of the Il-76 aircraft that Moscow claims had Ukrainian POWs on board.

The Il-76 military transport plane crashed in Russia's Belgorod region on Jan. 24, allegedly killing everyone on board. Moscow then blamed a Ukrainian strike for the crash and claimed that 65 Ukrainian POWs had been on the plane. No evidence of this claim has been provided.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency did not confirm whether prisoners were on the plane nor commented on what might have caused the crash but said a prisoner exchange had been planned for that day. Ukrainian military sources told Ukrainska Pravda earlier that the plane was carrying S-300 missiles, regularly used by Russia to strike Kharkiv Oblast.

Speaking with the Ukrainian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Yusov suggested that both S-300 missiles and people might have been on board.

"We are talking about a large military aircraft. It was only a third loaded, based on their (Russian) statements," said Yusov.

"There were other planes in the airspace next to the Il-76, which crashed, — AN-26 and AN-72. There are many circumstances that require investigation and deep examination."

The Security Service of Ukraine has launched an investigation into all the circumstances of the plane's crash, and Kyiv has called for an international investigation. Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said he would appeal to the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross to help find out what happened.

Yusov emphasized that the norms of international law dictate that the state holding POWs is responsible for their safety, including transportation for an exchange, adding that prisoners should not be transported in military planes.

As another possible explanation for the incident, Yusov said Russia's military might have shot down the Il-76 plane accidentally when targeting a Ukrainian drone.

"This is actually a war zone. Drones were actively used on both sides at that time and on that day. In particular, we are talking about the use of reconnaissance drones by Ukraine, which could be a target for Russian air defenses."

Yusov refused to comment on a list that Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan had shared with the names of the Ukrainian POWs allegedly killed in the crash, saying that such information should come from Russia's official structures dealing with POWs.

"Otherwise, it is perceived as a deliberate informational and psychological operation of the enemy," added Yusov.

Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne analyzed the list, concluding that some of the names are, in fact, Ukrainian soldiers currently held by Russia. Suspilne could not confirm, however, that those on the list were actually on the plane when it crashed, nor that they were potentially part of a prisoner exchange.

According to Lubinets, photos and videos from the site of the Russian Il-76 plane crash do not indicate "any signs that there were such a large number of people on the plane," as Russia claims.
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Yusov emphasized that the norms of international law dictate that the state holding POWs is responsible for their safety, including transportation for an exchange, adding that prisoners should not be transported in military planes.
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Now Ukraine is saying Russia “may’ be using POWs as human shields on transport planes and is blaming the Russians for them shooting it down. All signs continue to point towards Ukraine killing their own soldiers.
 
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Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
If Ukraine does that... kinda show that their Site is nearby city of Kharkov or Kharkov oblast. Maybe near Chuguiv airport as, with that it can cover Kramatorsk and most of Belgorod oblast.

The question is of course why Russian dont know or still let that site live. As it also lessen flexibility to attack from Kursk and Millerovo airbase.
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Stealthflanker said:
If Ukraine does that... kinda show that their Site is nearby city of Kharkov or Kharkov oblast. Maybe near Chuguiv airport as, with that it can cover Kramatorsk and most of Belgorod oblast.

The question is of course why Russian dont know or still let that site live. As it also lessen flexibility to attack from Kursk and Millerovo airbase.
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Ukraine likely prepared an ambush for it. Two possible theories.

First, they indeed thought it was a plane carrying S-300 missiles or other munitions to the front, and prepared to ambush it.

Second, they indeed knew it was Ukrainian prisoners but wanted to send a message to their own armed forces. You surrender you die. Surrenderees have become a big problem with the AFU lately, especially now with the 110th Brigade in Avdiivka south. So the Ukrainians, or a faction there of, prepared to do a 'Prigozhyn' on it.

I'm more leaning on the second.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Sounds like a severe case of miscommunication between Ukrainian forces to me. The central government negotiated the exchange but the local air defense forces shot down the aircraft anyway. If they did know about it and shot it down anyway, it would be a case of insubordination. It wouldn't be the first time Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv went against orders from the main military apparatus in Ukraine either.

For Russia, they lost an Il-76 aircraft and crew plus whichever guards they had for the prisoners. Allegedly nine people total I think. This is a substantial loss, sixty five Ukrainian POWs also died. Just for reference Russia builds six Il-76-MD90A a year currently. So it is not like this airframe loss won't be covered quickly. The loss of lives, and stop to the prisoner exchanges, is a much bigger problem.

The Il-76 crashed near Yablonovo in the Korocha District of Belgorod. That is like 40 km from the Ukrainian border. So the most likely culprit would have been either an Ukrainian Patriot or S-300. Much less likely it could also possibly have been a Buk, or NASAMS with AMRAAM-ER or IRIS-T SLM.
 
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SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
Tam said:
No evidence of crashes. Ukraine is easy to provide detailed satellite evidence of the Storm Shadow hits on the landing ship and the Rostov on Don submarine, both of whom were not big. Or even the Storm Shadow attacks on the Russian bases eliminating some helicopters.
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Of course there's evidence. Ukraine doesn't operate satellites how do you not know this? Also you're comparing apples to oranges... a stormshadow strikes fixed targets that sats can easily detect. When a missile is fired at a fighter it is shooting at a high speed moving target and when it gets hit debris is scattered everywhere depending on speed and altitude how do you expect for a commercial sat to detect that?
Tam said:
Yet unable to provide evidence of the crashes of these alleged Sukhois. Also of the ones in Kherson. Note how quickly people are able to present evidence of the IL-76 crash because it actually happened.
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Because IL-76 was recorded on video! :rolleyes:
Tam said:
The Sea of Azov is only 14 meters at it's deepest. Won't miss a crashed A-50 there by SAR or by optical or thermal satellite. So far up to now, you have not presented any evidence.
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Sorry but I and Ukraine don't have access to CIA, NSA, NRO, USAF and USN SAR, optical and thermal sats. Here's a lil physics lesson... when an aircraft hits the water at high speed it is equivalent to hitting land and will disintegrate on impact. Also I'm gonna take a guess and say that awacs broke apart before impact either immediately when the missile hit or on its way down.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Ukraine also claimed to have shot down several Il-76 near Kiev when the conflict started in 2022. Yet they provided zero proof.
Those aircraft would have had their wreckage land in terrain which is basically under Ukrainian control right now.
So where are those Il-76 wrecks?

Several people have pointed out that the Sea of Azov has 14 m of max depth. 7 m average depth. An Il-76 crashed there would show up on satellite pictures. It is an aircraft with 47 m length, 51 m wingspan, 15 m height. The claim it would fragment midair in pieces small enough not to show up after being shot down isn't very plausible either.
 
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SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
Ukraine also claimed to have shot down several Il-76 near Kiev when the conflict started in 2022. Yet they provided zero proof.
Those aircraft would have had their wreckage land in terrain which is basically under Ukrainian control right now.
So where are those Il-76 wrecks?
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Don't start a pissing contest of what claims have turned out to be false. I can start posting what Russia has claimed and easily win this contest.
gelgoog said:
Several people have pointed out that the Sea of Azov has 14 m of max depth. 7 m average depth. An Il-76 crashed there would show up on satellite pictures.
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Whose satellites would it show up? How many non commercial CIA, NSA, NRO, USAF, etc etc etc... sat pics have been made public during this war?
gelgoog said:
It is an aircraft with 47 m length, 51 m wingspan, 15 m height. The claim it would fragment midair in pieces small enough not to show up after being shot down isn't very plausible either.
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Is it? So you think airplane debris in the sea is just going to sit still for commercial sats to pick up? I think you are just arguing for the sake of arguing.
 
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