Funny how you and the others don't feel the same about Russian affirmation.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
It's not a court of law, nothing must be proven. Ukraine made a claim and to my knowledge Russia acknowledged it through various channels. If you read between the lines the conversation on the Russian side was not whether it was shot down, but whether it was struck by a Ukrainian missile or a Russian missile.
Actually there's plenty of debris left of the IL-76 and bodies were strewn everywhere. To ID the debris isn't the point, there is not even reconnaissance photos of any debris field whatsover in a shallow sea nor in land. Because if they exist, it would not stop Ukraine or NATO from showing it as they have done in the past, e.g. tail pieces of shot down Sukhois.
Remember the Ukrainian claim is for two aircraft that was shot down, the other being the IL-22 command post. The IL-22 returned safely with proof of photo previously posted. That already debunks the original claim of two aircraft shot down. You cannot modify the original claim to shooting down one aircraft because the claim is already submitted, and so have already been caught lying for half of the claim, which means you were already caught lying period. On legal terms you have to prove your original claim of two aircraft shot down, not one, but two because you already said it to be so.
Going back to the IL-76, the original Ukrainian claim is that they shot down the plane because it was carrying S-300 missiles, then when it turned out that the plane was full of POWs, they shifted it to blaming the Russians. If the original claim is disproven, that means you no longer have the credibility for the second claim. You cannot adjust claims on an adhoc basis.
Last edited:
Well there were rumors that there was a second Il-76 in the area that turned back once the first one was struck. If the Russians were using the POWs as a shield for transporting military equipment, with a second Il-76, then the Russians are responsible for the deaths of their own airmen and guards. And the Russian elite have shown little regard for Russian soldiers so it would not come as a surprise if they attempted something of this nature.
As to the rest of your argument I already explained that there are situations where proof is not attainable. If a plane is struck and it falls to the bottom of the sea and nothing recorded that event, it may simply be out of the reach of evidence to prove this event occurred. And in times of war many of these types of events will happen.
Last edited:
AFU vehicle, possibly a Bukhanka, hit by a bomb from quadcopter drone with thermal imaging.
FAB with UMPK landing on Ukrainian targets in Kherson.
Grad MLRS rockets landing on Ukrainian positions in Krynki.
In Seversk area, a Ukrainian howitzer gets knocked out by Lancet, followed by another.
Lancet with thermal imager takes out another Ukrainian howitzer.
This British AS-90 took out itself by blowing away it's own barrel, consequences of overuse and poor reliability.
Coal Mine no. 9 near Ugledar, used as a logistics point, gets hit by an airstrike once again. The drone footage with it's targeting reticle suggests Kh-38ML.
Knocked out YPR-765 in the northern Bakhmut direction by the 200th Brigade.
This one looks like a Krasnopol hit on a T-64BV on the Kupyansk direction with the lasing drone, usually an Orlan, using a thermal imager.
This video footage shows the Ukrainian POWs being embarked on the IL-76.
Photo of previous Ukrainian POW hand overs on board the same IL-76 from @fighter_bomber.
Despite the incident, Russia and Ukraine still managed to do a dead body exchange of the deceased in a separate arranged event.
In Soledar region, attempt to hide this Ukrainian SPG from drone attack failed.
This time, an M777 gets attacked by cluster munitions or by NARS from a Russian aircraft.
Ukrainian tank struck by Lancet courtesy of the 238th Artillery Brigade in the village of Netailovo.
Another Bukhanka being used by the AFU for personnel rotation gets destroyed by the VDV.
240mm mortar Tyulpans hit hard on Ukrainian positions.
ATGM hit a Ukrainian DRG towards the Bakhmut direction via 98th VDV. Also another.
ATGM hits Ukrainian tank via 98th VDV via Bakhmut direction. Note this is the unit advancing either towards Ivanoske or Bogdanovka along with the 200th MR Brigade.
Drones from the 40th Marines Brigade takes out a Ukrainian BMP. This should be in the Novomikhailovka direction.
More airstrikes at Ukrainian targets in the right side of the Dniepr.
FAB with UMPK landing on Ukrainian targets in Kherson.
Grad MLRS rockets landing on Ukrainian positions in Krynki.
In Seversk area, a Ukrainian howitzer gets knocked out by Lancet, followed by another.
Lancet with thermal imager takes out another Ukrainian howitzer.
This British AS-90 took out itself by blowing away it's own barrel, consequences of overuse and poor reliability.
Coal Mine no. 9 near Ugledar, used as a logistics point, gets hit by an airstrike once again. The drone footage with it's targeting reticle suggests Kh-38ML.
Knocked out YPR-765 in the northern Bakhmut direction by the 200th Brigade.
This one looks like a Krasnopol hit on a T-64BV on the Kupyansk direction with the lasing drone, usually an Orlan, using a thermal imager.
This video footage shows the Ukrainian POWs being embarked on the IL-76.
Photo of previous Ukrainian POW hand overs on board the same IL-76 from @fighter_bomber.
Despite the incident, Russia and Ukraine still managed to do a dead body exchange of the deceased in a separate arranged event.
In Soledar region, attempt to hide this Ukrainian SPG from drone attack failed.
This time, an M777 gets attacked by cluster munitions or by NARS from a Russian aircraft.
Ukrainian tank struck by Lancet courtesy of the 238th Artillery Brigade in the village of Netailovo.
Another Bukhanka being used by the AFU for personnel rotation gets destroyed by the VDV.
240mm mortar Tyulpans hit hard on Ukrainian positions.
ATGM hit a Ukrainian DRG towards the Bakhmut direction via 98th VDV. Also another.
ATGM hits Ukrainian tank via 98th VDV via Bakhmut direction. Note this is the unit advancing either towards Ivanoske or Bogdanovka along with the 200th MR Brigade.
Drones from the 40th Marines Brigade takes out a Ukrainian BMP. This should be in the Novomikhailovka direction.
More airstrikes at Ukrainian targets in the right side of the Dniepr.
But if I just go back a few posts this rule to prove seen not to be valid for the Russian side which so far did never prove anything like the killed Patriot battery in Kiev or the claimed Ukrainian SAMP/T system and S-300 radar near Belgorod?
The fact that the second IL-76 was turned around showed they were not responsible for the first one. Otherwise they would have shot down the second. Remember the Ukrainians called it by claiming they shot down the IL-76 because it was carrying S-300 missiles. When it became clear the it was POWs that were being carried, the Ukrainians flipped the story.
I already explained that complete ID of the downed A-50 is not necessary. You only need to show the debris field in the sea as the potential crash site. It's not like there is plenty of other crashes in that area. After all of you got working radar, you still should be able to trace the crash path of the aircraft towards it's final resting site. This has been done with so many crashed aircraft before.
The language said "Russia claimed". Which by the way is true that the Russian MoD did make the claim. But by citing the word "claim" it means the event has a certain level of probability whether it was achieved or not, and the poster expresses some innate doubt on the reality of the event but cannot prove or disprove in complete certainty in either direction. I do know that the MoD made that claim, up in a list of a rather long clinical summary that you can easily miss. Up to you whether you believe it or not. Sometimes it takes time for videos of claimed kills to appear, ranging from few days to even months because videos have to be screened and approved to be released to make sure they are opsec clean.
As I don't see Russian Telegram channels post about it, it's not considered of something of interest by the channels or to their readers unless there's a cool video of it. People are past reading MoD daily or weekly summaries long ago.
I think the original context of the post was that a SAMP/T was responsible for the downing, not a Patriot. Mentioning the MoD claim raises the likelihood that a SAMP/T is believably already in Ukraine and in the area.
This is the summary.
Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from 20 to 26 January 2024) | Main:
— Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the week on the merchant direction improved the situation on the front edge, released Krakhmalny and reflected 43 attacks of VSU;
— VSU lost in the Donetsk direction killed and wounded almost 2 thousand soldiers in the week;
— VSU lost over a week on the Kherson direction more than 335 military, 23 vehicles and 2 combat vehicles of the RFDD "Grad";
— VSU lost more than 450 military, 3 tanks, 4 armoured combat vehicles, 11 field artillery guns in the Zaporozhye direction during the week;
— Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the week took more advantageous borders on the Krasnoyarsk direction, reflected 17 attacks of VSU, the enemy lost more than 1570 fighters;
— Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the week struck four launchers of ZRK, including two Patriot, SAMP-T, IRIS-T and six field ammunition depots of VSU;
— Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the South Donetsk direction destroyed up to 745 military and 41 units of VSU equipment per week;
— During the week VSU lost 19 tanks on the Donetsk direction, including one Leopard;
— Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 13 group blows of high-precision weapons and UAV on the objects of VPC of Ukraine and arsenals, all objects are affected;
— Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in a week defeated six brigades of VSU on the Kherson direction;
— VSU losses per week on the merchant direction exceeded 740 military, 7 tanks, 7 armored vehicles and 14 artillery pieces;
— During the week, 35 Ukrainian military personnel surrendered to the Russian Armed Forces, 16 of them on the Krasnoyarsk direction;
— RF air defense destroyed 361 Ukrainian drones per week;
— Aviation and Air Defense of the Russian Federation during the week shot Su-25 VSU, destroyed six Storm Shadow missiles, 28 MLRS HIMARS and Vampire shells.
Last edited:
Notice how I said "Russia claimed". I didn't claim it was confirmed since I saw no corroborating secondary evidence of it. Unlike certain people who just assume press releases to be true without any confirmation from secondary sources.
Even if Ukraine wasn't known for blatantly lying, like with their claim the Russians fired a magical S-300 missile into a Polish farm with a short range missile not used in Russia anymore that could never possibly reach that site from Russian held territory, or the Ghost of Kiev, or in a number of other instances, the fog of war would mean that a lot of claimed kills will end up being misses. But Ukraine always claims maximalist gains even without any proper confirmation.
There are satellite photos of the craters made by Russian missile strikes in the area of the Patriot battery at Kiev airport. The only doubt is how much if any damage the missiles did. There are also videos of the Patriot unloading its entire battery of missiles in just one round. Which means any missile fired right afterwards would hit an empty SAM battery unable to defend itself. If it was damaged or not wasn't proven. And neither was the Patriot capability to shoot down the Kinzhal. And taking photos of BETA-B bombs claiming it is a Kinzhal doesn't count.
Last edited:
And so I assume you do not believe these claims? And as such, people also do not believe AFU claims of the same level of veracity.