The War in the Ukraine

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Belgorod is close enough to the border with Ukraine that the Il-76 could have been shot down by all sorts of things. They can basically hit Belgorod with Grads from Kharkiv. Belgorod is 20 km from the border. One thing is clear. I doubt that airspace is used by transports all that often being so close to the front. It was probably in some kind of special mission. The claim it was used for prisoner transport isn't that unlikely. If it was used for transport to the Middle East they would go over the Caucasus, not over Belgorod.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Update: The claim is official now. Confirmed by the Russian government.

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FACTBOX: Il-76 plane carrying Ukrainian captives crashes near Belgorod​

The Il-76 crashed at about 11:00 a.m. Moscow time (8:00 a.m. GMT)

MOSCOW, January 24. /TASS/. An Il-76 military plane crashed in the Belgorod Region. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 74 individuals were on board, including 65 Ukrainian captives.
TASS has gathered the key information about the incident.

What happened​

- The Il-76 crashed at about 11:00 a.m. Moscow time (8:00 a.m. GMT). There were 65 Ukrainian prisoners on board, who were being carried for an exchange. Besides, six crew members and three accompanying people were on the plane.
- The plane crashed five to six kilometers away from the village of Yablonovo in the Korocha District of Russia’s borderline Belgorod Region, a local priest told TASS. According to him, the crash caused no damage on the ground.

- The causes of the disaster have not been officially announced yet.

Work at the scene​

- A team of investigators and Emergencies Ministry employees are currently working at the scene, the governor of Russia’s borderline Belgorod Region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, has reported. He said that he had also departed for the Korocha district.
- The region's operational services told TASS that ambulance crews, firefighters and police officers have been sent to the site of the plane crash.
- A commission from the Russian Aerospace Forces is on its way to the region to investigate the causes of the crash.

Authorities' response​

- Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that he could not yet comment on reports about the crash. "I can't comment on the issue, it's fairly new, fresh information, we will deal with it now," he said.
- The head of the State Duma’s Defense Committee, Andrey Kartapolov, said that the plane could have been shot down by the Ukrainian Armed Forces using missiles of the US Patriot surface-to-air missile system or the German IRIS-T.
- State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin proposed to prepare an appeal to the US Congress and the German Bundestag to find out what missiles could have caused the crash of the IL-76 airplane.
- Head of the State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs and LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky said this is "not the first time the Ukrainian military has hit its own" and added that the authorities in Washington and Brussels were equally responsible for the "shooting of prisoners of war in the air."
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
List of Ukrainian passengers on board the IL-76 plane, including 13 Azovites.

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Crash video with explosion and cloud.

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Statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms the shootdown by Ukrainian SAM and that AFU has confirmed the prisoner exchange.

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Shaking in Krasnodar but it's a natural earthquake.

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Looking at the shape of the cloud, that's obviously a hit on the aircraft. The IL-76 has been the same plane used on previous prisoner exchanges.

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AFU confirms that in the prisoner exchange held in January 3, 2024, an IL-76 flew from Mariupol to Belgorod.

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Ukrainian howitzer knocked out by a Lancet of the 56th SPN Brigade.

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American mercenary accuses his colleagues of regularly shooting Ukrainians, who they cannot distinguish from Russians.

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Polish investigation of a missile strike last year that killed two Polish farmers has ended. It confirms that it was from a Ukrainian surface to air missile.

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From satellite imagery, Ukrainian cemeteries have increased several fold.

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Lancet takes out a vehicle used by the AFU in the right bank of Kherson.

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Ukrainian DRG hit by ATGM at Kurakovsky.

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Big FAB attack somewhere I believe should be on the Ukrainian side of the Dniepr on AFU deployment points.

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delta115

Junior Member
Registered Member
Prepare for the new narrative...

1. Russian shoot down their own plane to kill Ukranian POW. Just like how they shelling their controlled territory, Donetsk for no reasons and how they rain down rocket on their own POW camp to get rid of them Azov.

or

2. There is no Ukranian POW on that plan, Russia just make up that list.

If I am NAFO, I would go with 2. but knowing how they operate 1. is still on the table.

Hmm...
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Prepare for the new narrative...

1. Russian shoot down their own plane to kill Ukranian POW. Just like how they shelling their controlled territory, Donetsk for no reasons and how they rain down rocket on their own POW camp to get rid of them Azov.

or

2. There is no Ukranian POW on that plan, Russia just make up that list.

If I am NAFO, I would go with 2. but knowing how they operate 1. is still on the table.

Hmm...
Costly for nothing to crash it on purpose anyway. It could have been shootdowned or could just be load mismanagement. They are carrying weapons and ammunitions in a warzone, what can go wrong.

We have seen cargo plane before getting down in war zone due to error like that 747 in Afghanistan, not sure if we will ever know for sure.

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Some troops with manpads could have infiltrate the region too. Hard to say. End result is a cargo plane loss with his cargo, quite nasty.
 
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delta115

Junior Member
Registered Member
Costly for nothing to crash it on purpose anyway. It could have been shootdowned or could just be load mismanagement like the 747 in afghanistan, not sure if we will ever know.

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That's also possible, it's could be accident that Ukranian supporter quickly rush to claimed it to boost up morale.

Or NATO got intel about Il-76 flight path and signal Ukranian to ambush the plane but didn't actually sync up their intel with the other group that handle an exchange of POW.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Ukrainian media is removing all the references that they shot down the plane and now claim it crashed.

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