If Russia got air superiority, which I will define here as them being able to fly their bombers and fighters anywhere in Ukraine with no risk of being shot down, how much of a difference would it make to the war? Would it mean certain defeat for Ukraine or would they still have a chance? Desert Storm showed how devastating air power can be, but you still need accurate intelligence and targeting data otherwise you've just got fighters flying all over the place not knowing where to shoot. Does Russia have sufficient ISR assets and short enough kill chain from finding a target to destroying it, that they could make air superiority count?
To understand whether or not Russia acquired
Air Superiority, it is necessary to understand the respective concept.
According to Joint Publication 3-01, Air Superiority is "the degree of air control by a force that allows it to conduct its operations, at a given time and place, without prohibitive air interference and missile threats".
Note that the concept is linked to air control in order to avoid prohibitive interference in operations. In other words, the concept refers to an effect and not to the means, tactics or doctrine to be used to obtain it. It does not mention total or partial destruction of aeronautical infrastructure, air and anti-aircraft assets of opponents. And, even less, that this destruction must be carried out by aircraft, bombs and missiles.
Therefore, and by deduction from the concept itself, due to quantitative and qualitative asymmetries between the means of the contenders, they can be used in different ways to obtain the desired effect.
The VKS can, from its territory, attack any point in Ukraine, with surgical precision, in any weather condition, day and night. The radars on their planes detect enemies further away, their missiles are fired at much greater distances and their defenses against aerial and anti-aircraft weapons can neutralize the Ukrainian ones, as they are Russian-made, obsolete and known to work. Similar reasoning applies to the duel between Russian anti-aircraft means and Ukrainian aircraft and missiles.
In the conflict in question, these asymmetries are extreme. Russia is the third military power in the world (Yes... China is the second). Its armed forces are incomparably superior. If used massively, they would annihilate the Ukrainian military in a matter of weeks, regardless of the quality of plans and leadership. The comparative proportions between the respective means range from tens to hundreds or thousands, and, in qualitative terms, the Russian advantage is also extreme.
Therefore, it would be logical to deduce that the Ukrainian air force, recognizing the impossibility of resisting, chose to disperse its air and anti-aircraft assets, in order to preserve them and avoid useless destruction. This dispersion probably occurred on runways and improvised locations, in the west of the country, closer to NATO borders, in an uninvaded area. They could operate from these locations to harass the Russians, however, the sorties would be very limited by logistical support and there would be a very high risk of being shot down, as they would be detected shortly after taking off.
It would also be logical to deduce that Russian forces have identified and monitor this strategy, thus understanding that it is not necessary to attack airfields, aircraft and air and anti-aircraft systems on the ground. Due to their superiority, if Ukrainian aircraft attempted to operate, they would be detected and destroyed. The few medium-range anti-aircraft systems, when activating their radars, would be targets of anti-radiation missiles. If they launched their missiles, they would be neutralized by the target aircraft's electronic defenses. And if any aircraft managed to bypass Russian air control, they would be shot down by the superior anti-aircraft of their surface forces.
In this way and considering the concept of
Air Superiority, the asymmetry of military power, the Russian political objective, as well as the facts, it can be said that Russia effectively has
Air Superiority. The effect of controlling the air has been obtained. However, this was not achieved in the most traditional way or in line with the classical doctrine that recommends the destruction of infrastructure and resources, as seen in the Desert Storm that you exemplified.
Russia obtained
Air Superiority through deterrence resulting from the asymmetry and readiness inherent to the operational characteristics and lethality of its means.
I know some will not accept the argument, however, at worst, you need to accept the fact that the Russians have effectively achieved a
Favorable Air Situation which is defined as “an air situation in which the extent of the air effort applied by forces enemy air operations is insufficient to undermine the success of friendly land, sea or air operations.”
Air Parity is the lowest level of air control, where neither side has any level of control of the skies and this Ukraine has hardly achieved, especially if it is increasingly closer to where fighting is active.