The War in the Ukraine

Serb · Dec 29, 2023

SlothmanAllen said:
Are you really comparing Serbia to the United States in terms of industrial production? Like, what? US manufacturing output for 2023 is around 2.5 trillion dollars, what is the GDP of Serbia again?

US has among the highest value added production share of exported goods in the world. Around 78% of the value add for exports came from within the United States.

You were bringing up some total US industrial might, so I said that it's quite normal that they would have a lot more industrial capacity than smaller countries (or in absolute numbers) simply due to their size. But that they are 100% de-industrialized for a country of their own size. How you didn't manage to grasp this analogy is beyond me, or maybe you are using some strawman or what?

Russia has the same yearly steel production capacity as the US, but it also has less than twice the population. China has 5 times the population but 10 times the steel production. That's my point, of course, the US will produce more stuff than Portugal or Serbia for example (in absolute), but compare them to someone of their own class, and you will how industrially atrophied they are currently.

Edit: I don't understand what the second paragraph you wrote means. But, it doesn't look to be remotely true to me. Anyway, I see that you don't provide any quality value, and can't even communicate or receive information in the right way, so I will ignore you from here on out.

tokenanalyst · Dec 29, 2023

SlothmanAllen said:
These numbers don’t make any sense to me. 7,200 anti-air missiles per year? Where are they all? What platforms are they launching them from? Even just a couple of years of production would give them a lifetime supply against what they are currently facing.

Same goes for most of these statistics. 200 per month of new Tanks and IFVs? No, sorry that is not the case. Maybe some old stuff dragged out of Soviet retirement, but not new builds.

Also, please stop with the West is deindustrialized nonsense. The US is the largest producer of oil and gas in the world. Boeing produces 1,000+ aircraft per year and Airbus probably adds another 1,500+ to that number. Turbofan production at CFM, GE and Pratt is in the thousands. Lockheed delivers around ~156 F-35 at full-rate production. Not to mention the continued production of F-15, F-16, F-18 and every other aircraft currently produced in the West. The US manufacturers 10 million plus automobiles per year and NATO wide is probably near 20 million. The US has companies like Cat which is the largest producers of construction equipment in the world. Hell, I haven’t even had to look at stats for Germany, but they would have some major industrial producers. I feel like I could go on, but cumulatively, NATO absolutely demolishes Russia in industrial/manufacturing output. Period.

The problem is that is not war production, Western manufacturers are not going to stop their commercial production to a war economy like the Russians are doing or the North Koreans and the Iranians have set their own economy. The another issue is that type of weapons each front is manufacturing, The Russians are mass manufacturing low to medium tech easy to make weaponry that their industrial base was made for, they also have become very good using COTS components instead. While the West since the Gulf War idea of military supremacy is high tech and to be honest it has become the goal of all militaries, but there is a problem, while is true that high tech weaponry offer an obvious advantage in short decisive war like the gulf war, once an army is in a grinding war, a multiyear war, it becomes a liability, a fancy ASIC chip, an RF sensor or MEMS could take months in a semiconductor factory and micro-precision components take a lot of time to machine, while using ready available COTS components is easier and artillery shells don't even need high tech components. The HIMARS are great but they are probably a pain to fabricate requiring high precision components, while something like the GRAD is probably something that the Russian can mass produce and deploy on time. the accuracy is dependant on the math abilities from the operator but it works. That remember me of a discussion that I had with a buddy on what would WW3 looks like without nukes and on thing I concluded is that probably military production would revert back to the 60s and 70s levels on electronics and machining

HighGround · Dec 29, 2023

Serb said:
You were bringing up some total US industrial might, so I said that it's quite normal that they would have a lot more industrial capacity than smaller countries (or in absolute numbers) simply due to their size. But that they are 100% de-industrialized for a country of their own size. How you didn't manage to grasp this analogy is beyond me. Russia has the same yearly steel production capacity as the US, but it also has less than twice the population. China has 5 times the population but 10 times the steel production. That's my point, of course, the US will produce more stuff than Portugal or Serbia for example, but compare them to someone of their own class, and you will how industrially they are weak now.

This is false.

Russia and China outperform their peers. China especially. United States is actually above average. If you wanna see a real de-industrailized country, look at UK, who underperforms their peers even in Europe.

And no, manufacturing isn't measured by how many tanks a country produces, but even in terms of MIC, United States is above average. Western countries in general are arms exporters.

Serb · Dec 29, 2023

HighGround said:
This is false.

Russia and China outperform their peers. China especially. United States is actually above average. If you wanna see a real de-industrailized country, look at UK, who underperforms their peers even in Europe.

And no, manufacturing isn't measured by how many tanks a country produces, but even in terms of MIC, United States is above average. Western countries in general are arms exporters.

"De-industrialized" - Meaning that they once had something - but then they lost it.

So of course you can't compare them to the developing countries in the Global South who never had anything.

But compare them to Russia, China, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, in relative terms and you see how they atrophied.

SlothmanAllen · Dec 29, 2023

HighGround said:
This is false.

Russia and China outperform their peers. China especially. United States is actually above average. If you wanna see a real de-industrailized country, look at UK, who underperforms their peers even in Europe.

And no, manufacturing isn't measured by how many tanks a country produces, but even in terms of MIC, United States is above average. Western countries in general are arms exporters.

Not only that, but it is the second largest industrial producing nation in the world! I don't have currently figures unfortauntely, but in 2017 at PPP levels US industrial production was 3.7 trillon dollars to Russia's 1.3. Germany's was 1.2 trillion, France 600 billion, UK 509 billion, Turkey 706 billion, Italy 553 billion, etc.

Serb said:
Russia has the same yearly steel production capacity as the US, but it also has less than twice the population. China has 5 times the population but 10 times the steel production. That's my point, of course, the US will produce more stuff than Portugal or Serbia for example (in absolute), but compare them to someone of their own class, and you will how industrially atrophied they are currently.

That's one statistic! The overall comparison of industrial and manufacturing output is that the US and NATO dwarf Russia! There is no comparison! Like I don't care that Russia produces as much steel as the US, that doesn't determine overall manufacturing output. This isn't 1923, its 2023! Why don't we talk about Russian semiconductor industry and compare that to the US? Or what about the aviation industry? Or what about the software industry?

Like what are you even talking about? The US and NATO dwarf Russia in terms of industrial production. If you cannot grasp this basic fact I don't know what to say?

Serb said:
But compare them to Russia, China, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, in relative terms and you see how they atrophied.

Outside of China and maybe South Korea they have done a better job of maintaining their overall share of global GDP along with their share of global manufacturing.

Are you even looking at statistic that track this stuff?

Sheleah · Dec 29, 2023

gelgoog said:
What about Western weapons supplies to Ukraine? Where the US got tanks from Morocco. They got Pakistani, South Korean, and Israeli artillery ammunition, etc. You want to compare weapons supplies from NATO plus whoever else they buy weapons from, with just the Russian weapons supplies that Russia can produce themselves? How do you think that makes sense?

You are talking to me about equipment and ammunition that is not produced in the West, where the US has managed to rid countries of equipment of Russian/Soviet origin, to supply Ukraine, in exchange for delivering Western equipment, obtaining considerable sales...

The West asks Morocco for T-72s of Soviet origin. In exchange, it sells equipment such as Himmars, as well as consultancy and logistics, and even negotiates sending troops to the country... is the US losing something in that transaction?

As for the munitions of Russian/Soviet origin that the West negotiates to deliver to Ukraine, it is not undermining its inventories at all, and if there is a war, many NATO armies are contracting considerable supplies....

The Germans, without being at war, agree to contracts to supply ammunition to their army... while Russia produces goes to the front, who is in the best position regarding inventories?

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Tam · Dec 29, 2023

Someone mentioned the Lviv tank plant? Got smashed by an X-101 which was dropping flares. One less facility that's used to repair tanks in Ukraine. As previously mentioned, Russians going all out on what's left of Ukraine's MIC.

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More foreign volunteers appear to fight for Russia. We have Syrians, Somalis and Indians. Previously we have seen Nigerians, Chinese, Cubans and Nepalese Gurkhas. There's even a Japanese volunteer.

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Three US made HARM missiles shot down over the Belgorod region.

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Battle of Kleeshevka. Russian SPN units spot and target Ukrainian squads for artillery.

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The expression of this Ukrainian analyst in TV when he hears in the TV news reporter claims a Bayraktar TB-2 drone shoots down a Tu-22M bomber.

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Video of the new Shahed-238. This one works more like a Lancet drone.

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Dark Shahed-238. This one has a jet engine and is used to strike static targets.

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Lancet strikes a Ukrainian MT-LB with a Zu-23-2 anti-aircraft gun intended to shoot down drones.

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Destroyed YPR-765.

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MLRS or cluster bomb? MLRS, might be Grad, striking on Ukrainian positions on the forest line.

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Looks like Russian cluster munition used on Ukrainian positions in Urozhayne in Yuzno-Donetsk.

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Ukrainian positions in Urozhayne and Staromayorsky in Yuzno-Donetsk gets FABed. All these indicate a pending Russian offensive in the area.

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Ukrainian Bukhanka gets struck by something, perhaps a mine, in South Donetsk.

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Ukraine already declaring power outages as a result of the massive missile attack.

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In Kherson, an electrical substation is struck by Gerans.

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Ukrainian UAV shot down in Byransk.

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Russian FPV drone stats from @lost_armour.

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"The number of published episodes of the use of FPV drones in the SVO zone exceeded 3000 pieces!

According to updated

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colleagues with LostArmour

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, by the evening of December 29, 2023, at least 3,038 episodes of FPV drones were published in the SVO zone. In December, a monthly record — published 759 episodes again.

Of the 3,038 targets, 413 were guaranteed to be destroyed, and 471 were guaranteed to be damaged. On 1432 videos successful hits were recorded, but it is not possible to assess the damage caused (as a rule, these are frames without objective control of the). The results of the other 368 episodes of FPV drones are not known. Unfortunately, in 216 cases there were failures.

Most often, the targets of FPV drones are: enemy positions (1145 episodes), infantry outside the shelter (448 episodes), various buildings (407 episodes), motor transport (392 episodes) and light armored equipment (280 episodes).

We remind you on duty that this is only a small part of the total number of FPV drones and their real combat account is much higher."

tankphobia · Dec 29, 2023

In relation to that huge artillery shell number (20 million) by Russia in this thread, is there a breakdown on what it entails? Based on what's happening at the front at the moment if the artillery advantage was anywhere near 1:20 the war would've been a wash ages ago.

Serb · Dec 29, 2023

SlothmanAllen said:
Not only that, but it is the second largest industrial producing nation in the world! I don't have currently figures unfortauntely, but in 2017 at PPP levels US industrial production was 3.7 trillon dollars to Russia's 1.3. Germany's was 1.2 trillion, France 600 billion, UK 509 billion, Turkey 706 billion, Italy 553 billion, etc.

And all that with about 1 trillion of current trade deficit and the steel production on the level of Russia. xD

In layman's terms, that means that are doing more so "assembling" than they are doing "production".

Import import all kinds of industrial materials or parts from China and others and then roll.

Or else, did you see any other "industrially strong" country like Germany, Japan, China, Russia, or South Korea, having such large trading deficits?

Did you see any of the countries, listed above having only 18% of their GDPs coming from manufacturing?

SlothmanAllen · Dec 29, 2023

Serb said:
And all that with about 1 trillion of current trade deficit and the steel production on the level of Russia. xD

In layman's terms, that means that are doing more so "assembling" than they are doing "production".

Import import all kinds of industrial materials or parts from China and others and then roll.

Or else, did you see any other "industrially strong" country like Germany, Japan, China, Russia, or South Korea, having such large trading deficits?

Did you see any of the countries, listed above having only 18% of their GDPs coming from manufacturing?

But, you can't even probably begin to correlate all of this information with one another due to lack of knowledge.

Just because the US imports certain goods, does not mean it is assembling goods for re-export. You do know that of 90% of the content the US exports comes from US producers right? This is an easily verifiable statistic. Your just talking complete bullshit in this post.

The War in the Ukraine

Serb

Junior Member

tokenanalyst

Brigadier

HighGround

Senior Member

Serb

Junior Member

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member

Sheleah

Junior Member

Tam

Brigadier

tankphobia

Senior Member

Serb

Junior Member

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member