The War in the Ukraine

Aswin_hht

New Member
Registered Member
I'm not too familiar with this Youtube channel, but apparently it includes a debunking of the "Oryx" methodology.

I do watch him occasionally, generally a neutral guy. As for Oryx, I think there were also complaints about them over counting Russian losses and under-reports Ukrainian losses. The same channel spoke about it earlier when he identified images of over 30 destroyed/damaged Leopards while oryx only reported like 12 or so.
 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Footage of the impact of Ukrainian Storm Shadow missiles, Anglo-French production, on the Russian small missile ship Askold of Project 22800 has been published. The ship was located at the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch. Some of the missiles were launched by Ukrainian Su-24M aircraft from the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions; there were supposedly up to 16 of them in total. The missiles approached the target from different directions, maneuvering, changing routes and altitudes. Officially, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that air defense shot down 13 out of 15 missiles over Kerch, which can be assessed as a good result for air defense. It is known that six missiles were shot down 50 km north of the Crimean Bridge and over Kerch. One missile was shot down over the Zaliv plant. Apparently the missiles also targeted the Crimean Bridge. According to the video, three missiles hit a pier next to the ship, causing significant damage to the ship.

 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Footage of the use in Ukraine of the Russian missile and bomb complex "Grom" has been published. The complex is produced by the Tactical Missiles Corporation; we previously showed this military plant. At the moment, there is not a single video with real missiles and bombs of the "Grom" complex. It is known that the missile system is guided by GPS, it is based on the Kh-38 multi-purpose missile and can hit targets at a distance of up to 120 km. The complex is used from Su-34 and Mig-35 aircraft, as well as from the S-70 Okhotnik UAV. The mass of the missile warhead is from 315 to 480 kilograms. The video shows a missile from the Grom complex hitting a temporary residence of Ukrainian military personnel.

 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
If I’m not wrong then the ship wasn’t in active service and the Karakurt corvettes aren’t really that important of a ship for the Russians, they have plenty of them. This one being in repair for a bit a longer won’t be that big of a loss.

Damaging the bridge on the other hand has a lot more PR and morale value associated with it.
The Moskva had less value thatn the Karakut probably. They're "cheap" ships, but they're not "unimportant". Especially the ones with the VLS.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
The plan is not to move on Kiev as of yet, more things must be achieved:

1. Establish and hold a land bridge to Crimea - accomplished

2. Invade and dismantle the Donbass defensive system - in progress

3. Chase them from Donbass across the open steppe, across the left bank, and isolate them as they disperse - will commence after spring according to many analysts

4. Force a 2nd battle for Kiev - end of 2024

5. Move into the right bank of Ukraine - 2025

More or less this is the plan for the MOD and General Staff which Shoigu himself confirmed, the SMO was projected to achieve its goals in 2025

As the winter campaign to damage the electrification stations goes on - it will be less likely the average citizen of Ukraine will keep supporting fighting on unfavorable terms, and thus far we have not seen an insurgency in the south, so we have no reason to believe there will be much resistance once the Ukrainian military collapses in the donbass

Afzalov by the way was appointed as commander of the VKS for this precise campaign, after Surovikin, was promoted, or relieved (depending on what version you believe)

I do believe that what I called for, will be implemented by the VKS, not necessarily wide spread destruction of civilians as we see in Gaza

But certainly, harsh measures to begin maneuver warfare against Ukrainian defenses, as Ukraine transitions into a stationary defense, and begins rebuilding its defenses after the collapse of the Kramatorsk agglomeration, and the Seversk cauldron

They will build new defenses, in the spirit of our own departed Surovikin

Lacking the concrete of Donetsk, you will see greater reliance on trench diggers, mining vehicles, and ATGM, as well as sector wide artillery in the spirit of WW1

The only problem for them, is that Russia will have what they did not before- aviation, and a commander which understands combined warfare from aviation perspective, he was of course an Aerospace officer, not an army general like Surovikin

Noone in the VKS liked to be under Armageddon, even if you don't read about it, the greatest insult was to have the Air and Space forces under some infantry officer

Notice even the VKS operations have improved from perspective of data integration (A50U + S400)

(30 + planes downed in one week)
Do you have a link for these statements by MOD?
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
The radio stuff at the beginning is too garbled to make out. Nobody sounds American; the accents are definitely Eastern European, so they might be from some country there hostile to Russia. I'd very much like to know more about this video.
Those accents can be from anywhere in Europe, from Spain to Russia, from Sweden to Croatia. Although they may not be native English speakers, they are too good to be pin-pointed to any specific regions. My experience includes almost every European countries or regions, the better people speak English, the lesser special markers left to tell their origin. The simple phrases in the video "come on guys, are you hurt, go go go, back to the line" does not contain such markers from my experience. It is almost like there is an European English.
 
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TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Those accents can be from anywhere in Europe, from Spain to Russia, from Sweden to Croatia. Although they may not be native English speakers, they are too good to be pin-pointed to any specific regions. My experience includes almost every European countries or regions, the better people speak English, the lesser special markers left to tell their origin. The simple phrases in the video "come on guys, are you hurt, go go go, back to the line" certainly does not contain such markers. It is almost like there is an European English.
From what I hear, there are two people being shot. The cam guy(call him person 1) English do not feel native. I can't even tell if that is English. The other guy(person 2) speak much better. He sounds British or Australian, definitely not American. Alternatively person 2 could just be non-native but speak very well, and his country learned British pronunciation not American. If that is the case he could be from EU. Some country like Sweden speak very fluent English. So much that you can hardly tell they are not native speaker until they make a specific sound.

In conclusion:

Person 1: Non-native speaker. Could be from any country that is not Anglo-sphere. He could be an Ukrainian for all I know.

Person 2: Australian/British, or other Europeans with fluent English
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
From what I hear, there are two people being shot. The cam guy(call him person 1) English do not feel native. I can't even tell if that is English. The other guy(person 2) speak much better. He sounds British or Australian, definitely not American. Alternatively person 2 could just be non-native but speak very well, and his country learned British pronunciation not American. If that is the case he could be from EU. Some country like Sweden speak very fluent English. So much that you can hardly tell they are not native speaker until they make a specific sound.

In conclusion:

Person 1: Non-native speaker. Could be from any country that is not Anglo-sphere. He could be an Ukrainian for all I know.

Person 2: Australian/British, or other Europeans with fluent English
That is very true, one of my colleagues is a good example, she mostly pronounce words in British accent even though she has never lived in UK, and she is far from being exceptional. Many European countries are filled with BBC or CNN, Discovery channels for many decades that people learnt their English pronunciations from very young age.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
From what I hear, there are two people being shot. The cam guy(call him person 1) English do not feel native. I can't even tell if that is English. The other guy(person 2) speak much better. He sounds British or Australian, definitely not American. Alternatively person 2 could just be non-native but speak very well, and his country learned British pronunciation not American. If that is the case he could be from EU. Some country like Sweden speak very fluent English. So much that you can hardly tell they are not native speaker until they make a specific sound.

In conclusion:

Person 1: Non-native speaker. Could be from any country that is not Anglo-sphere. He could be an Ukrainian for all I know.

Person 2: Australian/British, or other Europeans with fluent English
Neither the camera guy (person 1) nor person 2 are native speakers. I agree that their accents aren't thick, but listen to how 2 pronounces "wounded" (it sounds like "wunded") and how 1 says "stop" ("stap").
 

blackjack21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do you have a link for these statements by MOD?
here is the link of what the MOD said.
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Zelensky was begging, "please give us money, and if you cannot give us financial assistance then please give us credit, and we will pay you back after the war" And what struck me, was that the western media places him in a light which it never did before. He really looks alone, but the striking part was that the west has no intention of giving him any more assistance. And here basically it means Russia is free to decide what the terms of the war will be - I think Shoigu said 2025 as the end of the SMO because it is a realistic timeline
Without Donbass, Ukraine will not have a defensive strategy, the JFO showed they staked defense of the nation on this battlefield
This is why if you look at any order of battle map in Ukraine, 90+% of all of their units are stationed in the donbass with other units behind them for rotation purposes.This is where the war is happening, being fought, and will be won and from where conditions will be imposed on Kiev and we do see that these NAFO accounts are disappearing en masse. We see politicians being ruined or flipped by the conflict
We see all western media declaring Ukraine is out of manpower and must hold peace talks, before they lose more territory, which was usually a trope of pro russian media, and now has become a headline on western MSM. And we see how the battles between Arestovich, Zelensky, Zaluzhny and other figures are starting to erupt. It's really up to Russia how long they will keep this tragic comedy going.

With the muddy season in place we should already be seeing new Ukrainian units being formed but again it looks like 90% of their forces are in the frontlines, while Russians are forming new units in their own country. Zaluzhnyi talks of man shortage should not be ignored.

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This war is already lost for Ukraine, all we are doing is just waiting for all the dominoes to fall.
 
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