The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I am guessing that the Russian lack another port for these ships and that is why they are allowed to sit in a place in which they can be attacked?
That's merely a tactical adjustment which does nothing to solve the fundamental problem for Russian Naval ships.
The problem is that they are on the defensive. That means that they have to succeed at their primary mission 100/100 or they get hit. Whereas the attacker, Ukraine, merely has to succeed just once for it to damage its opponent.
That's a strategic level issue that Russia is facing. They can adapt operationally and tactically, but at the end of the day, defence is defence, and attack is attack
Theory floating around is that these are british stocks Storm Shadow which are longer ranged than the previous Storm Shadows delivered(550km vs 290km) which is why the attack wasn't expected in in the area of Kerch as it came from an area Ukrainians hadn't been able to aproach from.
Just like everything, its a one off and won't be able to pull it off again as the Russians adapt. If true, the brits just took a dump on the Missile Technology Control Regime, though which I'm sure won't come back to bite NATO in the ass at all.
In my opinion, the biggest issue here is C&C and operational mobility.
Avdiivka should've been a lot further along. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources confirm that Russia has achieved operational surprise in this direction. They did not move fast enough and exploit this surprise. Additional movements and units were not timely coordinated, Ukraine was given enough time to reinforce and plug the hole in their defense.
Throughout this war we've seen Ukraine's ability to timely move units along the front line to the zone of conflict. Russian have achieved success and breakthroughs in this war, but they've never been able to properly exploit it.
We saw this during Mariupol, where the majority of Ukrainian forces managed to escape in good order, even though Russia had the opportunity to enclose nearly the entire battlegroup.
We saw this at Severodonetsk where the Popasna breakthrough finally took the city and even managed to take over surrounding areas, but quickly ran out of steam and troops to send.
We see it again here. Russian can achieve tactical success, but they cannot coordinate major tactical success into an operational one.
Ukrainians trying to expand their bridgehead at Krynki but Caspian Marines are bombarding it heavily.
Tactics used in this video. First Russian APC was without troops, used to cover the second APC by raking the enemy with fire, while the second APC goes in and disembarks the troops quickly, then supports the troops with fire. The trench and stronghold was taken quickly.
Ukrainian vehicle burning in Zaporozhye.
Ukrainian troop assault easily spotted in thermal, hit with bombardment. There is failure to properly conceal their thermal signatures, indication of inexperience.
By the Beavers. Ukrainian BTR-4E hits a mine then finished off by FPV drone.
LMUR hits a Ukrainian vehicle trying to cross a bridge transporting troops.
Ukrainian deployment point at the Dniepr hit with precision artillery strikes.
88th Brigade working on Ukrainian positions in Spirne. I suspect this is the next area for a Russian offensive.
This looks like an attempt by Ukrainians using SUVs and pickups for evac didn't turn out well after artillery spotted them.
Zelensky's assistant killed by IED. Russians starting a new phase in the war by covert assassination? Ukrainians are calling it a mishandling of a grenade.
Ukrainians and Wagner fighting each other again...in Africa. Not sure why valuable and experienced manpower continuous to be wasted when they are needed elsewhere.
One of the casualties where the Iskander hit the award ceremony held by the 128th Brigade was the head of artillery for that brigade. He and 'Taxi Driver' were like those being awarded in the ceremony.
The top commander of the 128th was fortituous in being late to the ceremony, and that may have saved his life.
The Poles have decided to block off all the checkpoints and freight leading to Ukraine, complains the Ukrainian ambassador to Poland.
Four against 13. Four Russian troops manage to storm a Ukrainian stronghold with a combination of FPV drones. Seven reported Ukrainian casualties. No losses reported with the Russians.
Bombardment by mortars against Ukrainian dugouts and trenches in Avdiivka prior to assault.
MSTA-B knocks out a Ukrainian SPG in a counter battery fight.
Polish Krab destroyed with detonation of ammunition.
Russian drone rams a Ukrainian drone. Both taken out by the attempt with the Ukrainian drone also falling into a mine in the process.
Avdiivka is burning and is starting to look like another Bakhmut.
Simple explanation to this is that it's deliberate. This is a very old tactic that goes back to a classic textbook.
This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."
Do not press a foe too .
Ch`en Hao quotes the saying: "Birds and beasts when brought to bay will use their claws and teeth." Chang Yu says: "If your adversary has burned his boats and destroyed his cooking-pots, and is ready to stake all on the issue of a battle, he must not be pushed to extremities."
I also think the Ukrainians are well too dug in to allow for quick manuevering and there's also the issue of drones everywhere.
Tactics used in this video. First Russian APC was without troops, used to cover the second APC by raking the enemy with fire, while the second APC goes in and disembarks the troops quickly, then supports the troops with fire. The trench and stronghold was taken quickly.
Ukrainian vehicle burning in Zaporozhye.
Ukrainian troop assault easily spotted in thermal, hit with bombardment. There is failure to properly conceal their thermal signatures, indication of inexperience.
By the Beavers. Ukrainian BTR-4E hits a mine then finished off by FPV drone.
LMUR hits a Ukrainian vehicle trying to cross a bridge transporting troops.
Ukrainian deployment point at the Dniepr hit with precision artillery strikes.
88th Brigade working on Ukrainian positions in Spirne. I suspect this is the next area for a Russian offensive.
This looks like an attempt by Ukrainians using SUVs and pickups for evac didn't turn out well after artillery spotted them.
Zelensky's assistant killed by IED. Russians starting a new phase in the war by covert assassination? Ukrainians are calling it a mishandling of a grenade.
Ukrainians and Wagner fighting each other again...in Africa. Not sure why valuable and experienced manpower continuous to be wasted when they are needed elsewhere.
One of the casualties where the Iskander hit the award ceremony held by the 128th Brigade was the head of artillery for that brigade. He and 'Taxi Driver' were like those being awarded in the ceremony.
The top commander of the 128th was fortituous in being late to the ceremony, and that may have saved his life.
The Poles have decided to block off all the checkpoints and freight leading to Ukraine, complains the Ukrainian ambassador to Poland.
Four against 13. Four Russian troops manage to storm a Ukrainian stronghold with a combination of FPV drones. Seven reported Ukrainian casualties. No losses reported with the Russians.
Bombardment by mortars against Ukrainian dugouts and trenches in Avdiivka prior to assault.
MSTA-B knocks out a Ukrainian SPG in a counter battery fight.
Polish Krab destroyed with detonation of ammunition.
Russian drone rams a Ukrainian drone. Both taken out by the attempt with the Ukrainian drone also falling into a mine in the process.
Avdiivka is burning and is starting to look like another Bakhmut.
Simple explanation to this is that it's deliberate. This is a very old tactic that goes back to a classic textbook.
7. MANEUVERING
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When you surround an , leave an outlet free.This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."
Do not press a foe too .
Ch`en Hao quotes the saying: "Birds and beasts when brought to bay will use their claws and teeth." Chang Yu says: "If your adversary has burned his boats and destroyed his cooking-pots, and is ready to stake all on the issue of a battle, he must not be pushed to extremities."
I also think the Ukrainians are well too dug in to allow for quick manuevering and there's also the issue of drones everywhere.
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There is a satellite image of this attack. The missile hit a building very close to the ship and it was not a direct hit. Likely because there was an interception. The debris did hit the ship and caused damage to it.
The satellite image of the attack on the ship, the ship itself was not struck but the explosion was close enough to do some major damage to it. Looks to be fixable though.
Today morning (7 November), Ukraine has conducted another raid on Crimea.
1) 17 drones were used in the attack.
2) 9 of them were shot down air defence (pantsirs) and 8 were suppressed using EW.
3) After interception, one drone fell onto a residential building.
4) Drone raids like these are generally conducted for probing the air defences before launched a cruise missile attack and it is very likely that another missile attack (using Storm Shadows, Neptune or even ATACMS) will happen towards Crimea in coming days.
Source:
1) 17 drones were used in the attack.
2) 9 of them were shot down air defence (pantsirs) and 8 were suppressed using EW.
3) After interception, one drone fell onto a residential building.
4) Drone raids like these are generally conducted for probing the air defences before launched a cruise missile attack and it is very likely that another missile attack (using Storm Shadows, Neptune or even ATACMS) will happen towards Crimea in coming days.
Source: