With roads and rail rendered mostly useless, sending weapons is becoming the same... Ukraine have less possibilities to field them anyway. Russian just need to lay incredible amount of sea mines to deter them and putting the west front on the table faster than they wanted.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Rushing anything would be a mistake. What's worked so far is to take things slowly. Laying mines would just be a waste of mines, plus the Ukrainians have already done that for them.
If you are prepared to attack NATO for sending a squadron of ancient MiG 29s, attacking them for breaking a naval blockage should be a no brainer.
Has this been shared before? A candid assessment by Colonel Markus Reisner from the Austrian Military Academy, from the beginning of May. In his opinion Russia can still win this, where the definition of victory is holding more territory than at the start of the invasion:
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He claims that according to data from the US, the arms it takes the West one week to supply to Ukraine, are either consumed by the Ukrainians in 1 day, or destroyed by the Russians. Apparently, Russia has published manuals on how to operate the various Western equipment supplied to Ukraine.
"In the past, Ukraine also succeeded in ambushing Russian soldiers with special forces. But this tactic probably won't work anymore. This had worked elsewhere in the first six weeks, but now the Russians are prepared, and the Russian special forces (Spetsnaz) hunt the Ukrainian special forces and unfortunately destroy them quite often."
Source:
Another assessment penned today:
Russia is using long range tube and rocket artillery, coupled with thermobaric weapons to saturate the Ukrainian defences, not giving them a minute of breathing space.
"
He claims that according to data from the US, the arms it takes the West one week to supply to Ukraine, are either consumed by the Ukrainians in 1 day, or destroyed by the Russians. Apparently, Russia has published manuals on how to operate the various Western equipment supplied to Ukraine.
"In the past, Ukraine also succeeded in ambushing Russian soldiers with special forces. But this tactic probably won't work anymore. This had worked elsewhere in the first six weeks, but now the Russians are prepared, and the Russian special forces (Spetsnaz) hunt the Ukrainian special forces and unfortunately destroy them quite often."
Source:
Another assessment penned today:
Russia is using long range tube and rocket artillery, coupled with thermobaric weapons to saturate the Ukrainian defences, not giving them a minute of breathing space.
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Beginning of may is when the copium bubble started to crack... Russia can still win this ? They are doing what intended : liberation of Donesk, Lugansk, denazification and destruction of military of Ukraine. It look like they can achieve better and create their Novorussia too...
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They intended to overthrow Ukrainian government and reshape the European defence landscape. It seems like they achieved the latter part with Finland and Sweden in NATO probably paired with permanent NATO military bases in Poland and we're sure they failed in the first case.
Who's insane enough to write that the biggest country in the world needs a few square kilometers of land more and transform it into the same land that's known from Russian poor rural areas? How stupid those claims sound? Is that success in any context?
It could be used in internal propaganda machine for a fraction of stupid people who don't see a bigger picture.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I don’t think Putin wants to deter them at all. Very interesting timing for the Russian ambassador to the UK to be downplaying the risk of nuclear escalation just as Britain is showing itself as super keen on the naval convoy idea if Russia wants to achieve deterrence don’t you think?
I for one feels like Putin may be quietly egging the British on.
It seems very likely that if Downing Street insist on leading charge on the naval convoy idea, Biden will lead from the rear as usual and not send any USN ships, at least not until someone else has tested the waters to prove its safe first.
So what if the RN leads a rag-tag band of minnows powers on this naval (mis) adventure and the Russians confront them with some small patrol boat, which acts deliberately belligerently, but does not fire the first shot and manages to bait the British into firing the first shot?
Then Russia does nothing for a day or two, and Boris is absolutely the kind of fool who would not be able to resist bragging about how he stood up to the terrible Russian Bear and made them blink and tuck tail and run. Much celebration and mutual back patting in the British news.
The next day massed Russian AShM waves overkills the entire naval flotilla and the few sodden survivors gets paraded on Russian news with the Russians playing back Boris’ own boarish boasts as evidence of British aggression.
Is NATO going to trigger Article 5 over this and commit mass nuclear suicide? I think not. NATO is thus massively undermined and Putin gets sweet revenge on Boris for all the Russian soldiers killed by western arms shipments.
The intention was never to overthrow the Ukraine government. It was to denazify and demilitarise the Ukraine. The demilitarise part they've already done, they are now demilitarising NATO. Denazification will probably take years, but once it's complete Ukraine will naturally be pro-Russian like Belarus.
Finland and Sweden are never going to join NATO, it's just posturing and it's pure copium to think so. No one in a real country will want to get nuked for a bunch of eastern Europeans. Germans can wash their own cars.
If anything the war has exposed NATO for the paper alliance it is.
Did they really want to overthrow the government? Why would they do this? If it did, who would sign the Russian demands?
For that to happen they will have to convince Erdogan.
Geopolitics involves geography. In fact, geopolitics is geography. This "biggest country in the world needs more land" litany is a pretty ridiculous argument. Stop this.
IMO. NATO wanting to escort grain from Ukrainian ports isn’t the core issue. That could just be 1 step for NATO. Next thing you know, they will be sending a huge LNG tanker into Ukraine and then a huge cargo ship full of heavy military equipment, etc.