The War in the Ukraine

plawolf said:

I don’t think Putin wants to deter them at all. Very interesting timing for the Russian ambassador to the UK to be downplaying the risk of nuclear escalation just as Britain is showing itself as super keen on the naval convoy idea if Russia wants to achieve deterrence don’t you think?

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I for one feels like Putin may be quietly egging the British on.

It seems very likely that if Downing Street insist on leading charge on the naval convoy idea, Biden will lead from the rear as usual and not send any USN ships, at least not until someone else has tested the waters to prove its safe first.

So what if the RN leads a rag-tag band of minnows powers on this naval (mis) adventure and the Russians confront them with some small patrol boat, which acts deliberately belligerently, but does not fire the first shot and manages to bait the British into firing the first shot?

Then Russia does nothing for a day or two, and Boris is absolutely the kind of fool who would not be able to resist bragging about how he stood up to the terrible Russian Bear and made them blink and tuck tail and run. Much celebration and mutual back patting in the British news.

The next day massed Russian AShM waves overkills the entire naval flotilla and the few sodden survivors gets paraded on Russian news with the Russians playing back Boris’ own boarish boasts as evidence of British aggression.

Is NATO going to trigger Article 5 over this and commit mass nuclear suicide? I think not. NATO is thus massively undermined and Putin gets sweet revenge on Boris for all the Russian soldiers killed by western arms shipments.

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America will stop Boris from sending anything into the Black Sea without American permission. If he refused, the UK will be kicked out of NATO and will be denuclearised (by America).

That's the only situation the UK would be allowed to start a war with Russia. Only two countries will be deciding if WW3 starts, Russia and America.

Janiz said:

They intended to overthrow Ukrainian government

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With a russian victory(Russia ends with more territory than what they started with), Zelensky's government won't survive, anyway, Either thrown under the bus by the west itself or internally by other forces.

AFU troops, which can be confirmed by the camouflage of the vehicles that you can see the yellow pixelation, being ambushed by artillery - here I imagine if it's Krasnopol, it's too accurate to be dumb artillery - during the offensive in Kherson. They appear to be BMP-2, which indicates that it may be the 14th Brigade, as the 28th used more BMP-1s, but to be confirmed, but apparently they are BMPs.

Now something very interesting. The AFU General Command has now claimed the town of Mykolaivka, claiming to be part of the offensive, but it is a very curious case, as this village is to the North, approximately 45 km away from the place where the Ukrainian offensive is taking place.

Apparently, the Russians developed Hypersonic missiles and the Ukrainians Hypersonic Armored Infantry. There is no news, even from a Ukrainian source, of any attack in the Russian-controlled North of Kherson territory. By the way, this city has had Ukrainian troops since April, when the RuAF's 126th Brigade retreated from that position.


By the way, I researched and it seems that the Ukrainians formed another Mechanized Brigade, with reservists and volunteers, which would be the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, which would be fighting in Kherson now, but I didn't find any more data about it. In addition to what it says above and about news of a Russian convoy ambush.

In Severodonetsk:


In the Severodonetsk theater of operations, the Russians made air strikes against Siversk:


This information comes straight from the AFU High Command. If the Russians manage to make air strikes on Siversk unopposed, it is only a matter of time for the Brigades in the Severodonetsk theater of operations, as they are definitely out of supply routes and unable to retreat. If they make a general retreat, they will be attacked by the aircraft in the middle of the Siversk highway and if they try to take the other, they will be ambushed even by anti-tank weapons. Most likely the Russians are already working on using the Hurricane systems to disperse mines on the road at Siversk, to completely reroute the lines of communication, if they haven't already.

And to the surprise of ZERO people, weapons donated by NATO to Ukraine have already ended up in Syria:


Edition:

Does anyone remember this here:


Turns out it was a Ukrainian plane. It was one of the first images claiming that Ukraine shot down a Russian aircraft.


It was a Ukrainian MiG-29.

Media reports that the pilot drowned after the ejection, his name was Roman Pasulka and it looks like the body was found just the other day.

The second photo showing the honoring face is of another MiG-29 pilot - Vladimir Kokhansky. Since February 24, he has been reported missing, and the wreckage of his plane with his remains was discovered less than a month ago.

A somewhat optimistic take for SkyNews by Prof Michael Clarke on the cauldron between Severodonetsk and Slovyansk. The Ukrainians have 20,000 troops committed in the cauldron, apparently in no rush to withdraw:

plawolf said:

I don’t think Putin wants to deter them at all. Very interesting timing for the Russian ambassador to the UK to be downplaying the risk of nuclear escalation just as Britain is showing itself as super keen on the naval convoy idea if Russia wants to achieve deterrence don’t you think?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I for one feels like Putin may be quietly egging the British on.

It seems very likely that if Downing Street insist on leading charge on the naval convoy idea, Biden will lead from the rear as usual and not send any USN ships, at least not until someone else has tested the waters to prove its safe first.

So what if the RN leads a rag-tag band of minnows powers on this naval (mis) adventure and the Russians confront them with some small patrol boat, which acts deliberately belligerently, but does not fire the first shot and manages to bait the British into firing the first shot?

Then Russia does nothing for a day or two, and Boris is absolutely the kind of fool who would not be able to resist bragging about how he stood up to the terrible Russian Bear and made them blink and tuck tail and run. Much celebration and mutual back patting in the British news.

The next day massed Russian AShM waves overkills the entire naval flotilla and the few sodden survivors gets paraded on Russian news with the Russians playing back Boris’ own boarish boasts as evidence of British aggression.

Is NATO going to trigger Article 5 over this and commit mass nuclear suicide? I think not. NATO is thus massively undermined and Putin gets sweet revenge on Boris for all the Russian soldiers killed by western arms shipments.

Click to expand...

No Astute-class God-mode comments.

Now something very interesting. The AFU General Command has now claimed the town of Mykolaivka, claiming to be part of the offensive, but it is a very curious case, as this village is to the North, approximately 45 km away from the place where the Ukrainian offensive is taking place.

There are several towns and villages called Mykolaivka.

Everything from what I’m seeing from Russian telegram channels shows the Ukrainian forces fled Severdonekts without a fight. Now they likel retreated to Lisichansk to fortify it. In total it’s projected there is 8-10k Ukrainian in the city right now. I expect that to be a bloody urban battle but it will be in Russian hands. The cracks are showing in Donbas. Another 30 days of this type of fighting will lead to the collapse of Ukrainian resistance. Only places holding on strong is Maryinka and Aviinka. But it only a matter of time before they crack.

Maikeru said:

The single Astute class in the Med at the moment can sink the entire Russian flotilla there in retaliation though.

Now something very interesting. The AFU General Command has now claimed the town of Mykolaivka, claiming to be part of the offensive, but it is a very curious case, as this village is to the North, approximately 45 km away from the place where the Ukrainian offensive is taking place.

There are several towns and villages called Mykolaivka.

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So which Mykolaivka is the AFU referring to? Can you show us on a map?

MortyandRick said:

So which Mykolaivka is the AFU referring to? Can you show us on a map?

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There is one in Mykolaiv, another in Donetsk and another in Kiev, probably the AFU claimed the city that is located in Donetsk which is south of Raihorodok, near Slavyanka.

FADH1791 said:

Everything from what I’m seeing from Russian telegram channels shows the Ukrainian forces fled Severdonekts without a fight. Now they likel retreated to Lisichansk to fortify it. In total it’s projected there is 8-10k Ukrainian in the city right now. I expect that to be a bloody urban battle but it will be in Russian hands.

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I am expecting Severodonetsk to fall to the Russians.

However, a small cautionary:

10k troops is still the equivalent of 10 BTG in raw numbers but if they are all infantry, even more. A Russian BTG has about 200 infantry (plus or minus). If there are 10k Ukrainian infantry left in Severodonetsk, that's as much as 50 BTG worth.

It will be a slog unless the Ukrainians are retreating en mass rather than repositioning.

The Ukrainians are stating there's a lot of street fighting going on and the Russians are pushing hard despite heavy losses.

eh. We will see who is accurate in a few days.

anzha said:

I am expecting Severodonetsk to fall to the Russians.

However, a small cautionary:

10k troops is still the equivalent of 10 BTG in raw numbers but if they are all infantry, even more. A Russian BTG has about 200 infantry (plus or minus). If there are 10k Ukrainian infantry left in Severodonetsk, that's as much as 50 BTG worth.

It will be a slog unless the Ukrainians are retreating en mass rather than repositioning.

The Ukrainians are stating there's a lot of street fighting going on and the Russians are pushing hard despite heavy losses.

eh. We will see who is accurate in a few days.

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Aren’t BTGs around 700-800 with a few at 900.