The War in the Ukraine

Tam said:

Err... Verbove is not behind Rabotino, it's east from it. It's actually going further away from Tokmak.

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I am aware. They are widening their salient. Two side of the same thrust.

Sounds like Tokmak is next which is as heavily fortified where after you spent 4 months of pushing through a massive minefield, tank obstacles and FOBs getting pounded by artillery losing tens of thousands of your own you get to do it all over again, because there are even more and bigger minefields, stronger tank obstacles, proper fortresses and, you guessed it, EVEN MORE ARTILLERY.

only 30-45 days left (I guess the sea of azov promise won't happen) until the offensive is grinded to a halt and the AFU will be static targets for aviation, missile and drone strikes. Even if 1000 tanks are delivered instead of the usual 100, bodies are needed to man those with infantry support. on onehand whenever there is an end of a major offensive, we get alot of tweets of civilians being thrown into white vans while on the other hand we got 300k russians troops signing contracts this year alone. Its like come on have pity for your men Zelensky.

blackjack21 said:

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MOSCOW, 3 August. /TASS/. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev cited data from the Ministry of Defense, according to which, from January 1 to the present, a total of more than 231,000 people have been accepted for contract work.

"According to the Ministry of Defense, from January 1 to August 3, that is, today of the current year, a total of more than 231,000 people were accepted for the contract," he cited statistics.

The system of selection for service under a contract in the Russian Federation has been successfully adapted to the conditions of the Northern Military District, Medvedev said at a meeting on the issues of understaffing of the RF Armed Forces.

“The task remains the same - to make contract service as prestigious as possible. To this end, organizational, economic, social, and technological decisions have been made in recent months. it is less important that it was possible to significantly improve the social security of servicemen and their families," Medvedev said.

He recalled that a one-time payment was established for contractors, credit holidays were introduced and their jobs were maintained for the period of service, "although it is still necessary to monitor what is happening in this area." "The imbalance in the amount of salaries of mobilized and contract soldiers has also been eliminated. Regional incentive and compensation payments have been established in all regions of the country," Medvedev continued. "The results of these and other measures are obvious," he concluded.

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Since January 1 of this year, about 280 thousand people have been accepted for service in the RF Armed Forces. This was stated by Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev. According to him, they all signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

I am meeting with the heads of the subjects of the federation in person, bearing in mind the importance of this work on the resupplying of the armed forces with contract servicemen. According to the Ministry of Defense, since January 1, about 280 thousand people have been accepted into the ranks of the armed forces, some of them are people who were in the reserve, some of them are volunteers, other categories - said Dmitry Medvedev.

Recall that the mass start of the recruitment of contract servicemen in the ranks of the Russian army was announced at the beginning of this year. As emphasized in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the RF Armed Forces needed to recruit 300 thousand people. They were supposed to strengthen the personnel of the Russian group, which is participating in a special military operation in Ukraine.

Recruitment of those wishing to enter the military service under the contract is carried out in all regions of the country. Recruits are paid a one-time payment of 195 thousand rubles. In addition, monthly payments from 204 thousand rubles are provided for the participants of the SVO.

We add that now the units of the Russian group are successfully repelling the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army in the Zaporozhye region and the DPR. At the same time, Russian units are conducting offensive operations in the LPR and the Kharkov region, approaching Kupyansk. In the confrontation with the army of the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer heavy losses in personnel and equipment .

Russia claims Ukraine loses 5 to 10 times than they do and Ukraine claims the same vice versa. However, I simply look at who is getting thrown into white rape vans to get sent to the front and which side is volunteering themselves into active service with a hot war going on. I think the side that is volunteering themselves into active duty wouldn't do so if Oryx was right about their claims. We also seen like one or two T-90s captured or destroyed and there are several hundred T-90Ms and the rest being T-72B3M amounting to 1500 tanks by the end of this year. However we still see T-72s T-80s battling challengers and leos with soon to be Abrams I will believe Oryx with their vehicle claims if Russia starts throwing T-90Ms early in the operation than throwing them later for a planned major offensive against Ukraine

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The improvements in pay, pay-equity, and job protections should’ve been established, long-ago! This is what happens when your government is a closed-loop, mafia-style, pyramid-scheme! Had the decision to initiate the “SMO” been achieved through a coherent, collective decision-making process, these “improvements “ wouldn’t be necessary, now. I find it shocking, and, no hyperbole, here, how poorly Russia treats the backbone of its military compared to the way that they are paraded (actually) about!

As far as materiel is concerned, I’m not seeing such evidence for optimism. Production, as well, should’ve been accelerated, in advance of operations.

anzha said:

hey folks.

been busy. I have a rather large family to take care of now and work has been a little nuts. ok, more nuts than a squirrel can handle. I did a speed run through the thread since just after Prigozhin's run at Moscow. You guys remain a hoot.

[...]

(@james smith esq welcome back. If outright Ukraine wins, tell me where to ship the poison of your choice)

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I think the taking or the defending of Melitopol is the key (’tho, I don’t like the route AFU is taking to get there).

And, I’m still callin’ it!

blackjack21 said:

Sounds like Tokmak is next which is as heavily fortified where after you spent 4 months of pushing through a massive minefield, tank obstacles and FOBs getting pounded by artillery losing tens of thousands of your own you get to do it all over again, because there are even more and bigger minefields, stronger tank obstacles, proper fortresses and, you guessed it, EVEN MORE ARTILLERY.

only 30-45 days left (I guess the sea of azov promise won't happen) until the offensive is grinded to a halt and the AFU will be static targets for aviation, missile and drone strikes. Even if 1000 tanks are delivered instead of the usual 100, bodies are needed to man those with infantry support. on onehand whenever there is an end of a major offensive, we get alot of tweets of civilians being thrown into white vans while on the other hand we got 300k russians troops signing contracts this year alone. Its like come on have pity for your men Zelensky.

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I’ve found Weeb Union’s presentations to be less informative than the three listed below. I’ve also grown tired of DPA‘s format! JMHO


Military Summary
Military Lab
Yevhenii From Ukraine

Ukrainian tank with mine clearance equipment abandoned. FPV drone from the Sudaplatov Battalion comes to finish it off.


Knocked out MaxxPro.


Two Strykers taken out by ATGM.


Lancet from the obtf Kaskad strikes a Ukrainian tank at the rear.


A group of Ukrainian vehicles found wrecked.



Another M777 lost to, you guessed it, a Lancet.


Interview with the guy who shot the Challenger tank with an ATGM.


Abandoned AFU BMP-1 in Rabotino area.


AFU BMP-2 taken out by ATGM.


Knocked out M113 in Zaporozhye.


AFU deployment point in Volchansk, Kiev region, hit by Russian artillery.


Ukrainian command post in Kupyansk hit by FAB-500. Before and after.



Destroyed Stryker at the Rabotino region.


Destroyed Bradley same region.

anzha said:

A more general question for the people in the thread: when do we think we will be able to tell the war is in the end game?

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There's not going to be an end, it's going to be Syria on a larger scale. We're at least a decade away from any "end game." Despite the noises to the contrary, the West has given Ukraine a blank cheque and will continue to service it.

anzha said:

I am aware. They are widening their salient. Two side of the same thrust.

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It's more like a dimple than a salient.

anzha said:

If the Ukrainians are so fractured and have terrible tactics, why isn't Russia exactly crushing the Ukrainians again?

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Russia doesn't have to go anywhere, it can just keep setting up minefields and artillery traps to attrite the Ukrainians.
Milley seems to have a knack for saying things his bosses don't like hearing. The change in Ukrainian tactics from armour to infantry is clearly a result of Western pressure. Even though their support is unconditional, their resources and manufacturing aren't infinite (they aren't China, after all) and they won't accept seeing their equipment in Highway of Death scenes like the beginning of the so-called counteroffensive.

anzha said:

hey folks.

been busy. I have a rather large family to take care of now and work has been a little nuts. ok, more nuts than a squirrel can handle. I did a speed run through the thread since just after Prigozhin's run at Moscow. You guys remain a hoot.



[...]

A more general question for the people in the thread: when do we think we will be able to tell the war is in the end game? I mean prior to the diplomats publicly sitting a table. A Ukrainian flag over Sevastopol doesn't count either as the war would definitely be over at that point. A Russian one over Kiev would be the same equivalent, so no calling that. So, what sign - earlier than the blatant ones - would show the war is nearing the end?

[...]

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I think I might have discerned AFU’s strategy in Zaporizhzhia; and, that’s a strong might!

If I’m correct, it would mean that AFU could achieve a significant intermediate objective by gaining the heights bounded by Novoprokopivka, NE, Verbove, NW, Solodka Balka, SW, and Pshenychne, SE, with a possible SE objective of the higher heights west of Romanivske.
This is not to suggest that this is either a given, or that it will be easy. However, it’s a much more realistic objective given the oncoming onset of the rainy-season! I believe that, should they accomplish this objective, they would hold-off on a push to Tokmak until more materiel has been delivered and integrated into service.

I don’t have the time right now but I will post my maps along with my reasoning later on today.

Islander hits a Ukrainian command post, according to the Russian MoD.


AFU troops and vehicles are tracked by drone to their hideout, which is treated with a precision strike.


This is an unusually big explosion just for a Ukrainian held trench.


A vehicle to vehicle kill. This one is a BMD-4 that managed to knock out a Ukrainian vehicle. The BMD-4 has a 100mm gun which can fire HE and APC projectiles, along with ATGM, and a 30mm gun added.


FPV drone from Beaver (Chechens) attacks and hits a pickup used by the AFU.


Attacks on light vehicles can pay off as recently a car with four mercenaries fighting for the AFU was attacked and destroyed by an FPV drone, a Canadian merc and a Spanish merc were killed and two Germans sent to the hospital with critical injuries.

Russian 4th Brigade takes out two tanks and various positions near Artemovsk.


Ukrainian drone shot down over the Belgorod region, likely Chinese Mujin 5 Pro.


Enhanced T-80BVM as it will be when production resumes.


Two AFU armored vehicles gets knocked out by Ka-52 on the hunt over Ugledar.


More BREM-1 vehicles delivered to the Russian Army. These are recovery vehicles.


AFU BMP-1 knocked out by FPV drone.

Hi
if my senior members spare my life here, I just want to speculate
some of my thoughts coming around
1 this war will be halted one Ukrainian airforce receive 36/50 F16
with beyond visual range American missiles
2 By that time I mean next or year after whatever areas Russians
are holding I’ll be let go in their possession semi/ officially
3 so after also this remaining Ukraine will be annexed by NATO
as one of their member country
4 And Russian to some extent will be happy to have some buffer between
them & the NATO country from Ukrainian side
once again if it’s not according to the thread norms forgive me
thank you